Yes, No Later than December 2013. Anyone wanna bet?

Its not impossible in the Americas since Mexico and Canada are less solidly for Wii than the USA, but its probably highly unlikely still.

X360 is going to top 30m in the USA this year, in six years on the market, plus late 2005.

Wii is going to top 40m in the USA this year, in five years on the market, plus late 2006.

You have to figure X360 and Wii sales are going to be rather similar throughout the rest of the generation though. In 2010, X360 topped Wii six months, but since November and December split, it wasn't particularly decisive either way.

Both systems have about 20m units left in the USA to sell - possibly alot more or less if price cuts are particularly (in)effective.

My issue with X360 catching Wii is given the saturation of the USA market, its hard to imagine X360 outselling Wii by that much while both still have relevant sales.

I'm also not convinced Microsoft is going to be supporting X360 for a huge number of additional years either - if you look at the quarterly data, Activision, EA, THQ, - all the publishers who didn't support Kinect - saw their revenue decline on X360 in Oct-Dec 2010 from Oct-Dec 2009 even with the base 11m larger in North America and Europe. Kinect probably can't support the diversity of software to prolong X360 beyond an additional year or two unless core games work on it soon. The publishers who cant make money on sports, dancing and fitness will see their fortunes begin shrinking soon for X360, and thus the HD market overall.

Judging by 2010 as a whole - i.e. the bit where Wii shot up over the holidays - I'd have to say no.  360 has already delivered great US sales, but I don't see it making up the gap given it's been on the market longer and is already so far behind Wii total sales in US.

Only chance 360 has is if Wii stops selling completely and 360 is on the market for much longer.  I doubt this will happen though.

No...the weekly gap isn't big enough to gain a 10 mil lead and this is assuming the gap even remains, with the 360 not dropping or the Wii selling more at certain points and it'd still take 3 years.

Iwata already said there's multiple Wii games still in development...a new console announcement isn't coming soon, especially since the 3DS is just coming out. A new console would still have to compete with the current HD consoles assuming Nintendo drops Wii support and the 360 lasts another year or two, which puts them at a disadvantage.

Would be much smarter to announce a new console next year and it's not like the Wii is selling badly even now or anything...