I'll have to say 50/50....
The major thing which needs to happen is for the Xbox 360 to maintain a higher sales rate and for the Wii to be discontinued or otherwise rendered obsolete by the NES 6 whilst the Xbox 360 stays on the market. The thing is Microsoft has greater incentive in selling a $149 or $129 or $99 Xbox 360 because the 360 can always be used to purchase Xbox Live and related software and services whereas Nintendo is reliant on hardware margins and software profit. Microsoft's business model is better suited to the tail end of the product life cycle than Nintendo's is.
At the moment given the difference in present sales and factoring in the business models of the two companies I would have to say the 360 has a 50% chance of outselling the Wii.
Tease.
