X360 in Americas and PS3 in EMEAA more specifically.

Currently:

X360 is 10.2 million behind Wii in Americas
PS3 is 10.3 million behind Wii in EMEAA

X360 outsold Wii in Americas this week by over 50k, and PS3 outsold Wii in EMEAA by 23k.

In America, since June 2010 360 has been dominant, save for December when there were shortages. But January resumed normal practice. PS3 is making huge strides in EMEAA, Asia ect, and will sell bucket loads when it's £149 and lower.

So how close will X360 get to Wii in Americas, and how close will PS3 get to Wii in EMEAA?

It really all depends on how long this gen lasts, the longer it lasts the more dated the wii becomes, the faster the gap is going to close. 

Well, if we use your numbers....

X360 will pass Wii in the US in 204 weeks.  About 4 years.
PS3 will pass Wii in EMEAA in 447 weeks.  About 8.6 years.

And that's just assuming that Nintendo will sit on their ass and do absolutely nothing to increase sales between now and those dates.

It's also assuming MS and Sony won't do anything either. And this weeks sales was just to give a current state of the market, so you can't extrapolate.

Fact of matter is, X360 is now the #1 choice in America and PS3 is getting stronger. Whilst Wii gets weaker and weaker.

And your post is assuming there won't be weeks with bigger gaps than just the 50k and 23k that we see this week.  What about during holiday months if the 360 continues to dominate and sells higher than Wii by several hundreds of thousand of units instead of less than a 100k.

The way I see it, it all comes down to how long this gen keeps going.  The longer it lasts the closer the HD twins will get to it.  The WIi is really starting to show its ageing hardware now, and you can get arguably as good or better motion controls on the other systems.  The fact is Pachter was right and Nintendo should have already been prepping the release of a new home console and I think the delay will indeed hurt them.  Nintendo absolutley has to launch a new home console next holiday or their time of domination is gonna come to a stop.

IMO both gaps will increase in 2011.

And my absurd extrapolation was symbolic to the absurd notion that we can guess if and when such an event will occur when the variables are play are wholly unknown to any of us.  As you guys have noted, Sony and MS could do more as well.  Could, if, maybe, perhaps, possibly....

The volume of IF's required to play this game of 'when' are far too many.  You may as well ask how many rain drops will fall from next weeks rainstorm. 

"In America, since June 2010 360 has been dominant, save for December when there were shortages."

Means you think 360 would have outsold Wii in Dez without shortages in America?

I don't think so and Dec sales are like 1/3 of the whole year, Ninty was always strong in this period of time.

So, imho, 360 will loose alot to the Wii during holiday season.

Conclusion: 360 will NEVER outsell Wii lifetime sales in America

Same for PS3 in EMEAA

I don't know about regions but PS3 and X360 should catch up 2-3 milions WW to Wii this year

Both look to be 4m-7m gaps by the end of it. That assuming that all companies do as much to support the console as they are right now in the future and nothing unexpectedly massive (SuperSlim? $69?) occurs.