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Forums - Sales Discussion - 1st Qtr 2011 Shipment Predictions

D-Joe on 20 March 2011

 

2.3~2.5 for 360,2.5~2.7 for PS3,2.4~2.6 for Wii

 

Seece said:

Interesting ...

MS shipped 6.3 last Q, and sold 3.5 of that in U.S, the other 2.8 elsewhere

If the weekly rate of sales stays flat in U.S for march, that'd total 1.58 mill 360's sold in U.S Jan/March

Same ratio as Xmas would have it at 1.25 mill elsewhere (roughly) so that's 2.83 mill WW.

If it fell to Jan levels though, it'd be roughly 1.5 mill for US and 1.2 mill elsewhere = 2.7 mill WW.

Of course, buying habbits change in different places at different times, but then also, MS had to get extra stock out.

Should be interesting, perhaps my 2.1 is too low.

how is 2010 Jan~March 360 shipped and sold(NPD)?



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thx1139 on 08 April 2011

Quarter is complete and this is how things look. (Estimated Japan based on Media Create). This includes 2 extra days of sales since quarter ended last Thursday.

Console Total Last year Change % Change   Retail Channel Jan 1st 2011
Wii 2,616,000 4,160,186 -1,544,186 -37%   1,000,000
PS3 2.831,000 3,293,806 -462,806 -14%
1,600,000
X360 2,486,000 2,222,768 263,232 12%
500,000

So how many were shipped this quarter?

Wii = 1.8M which would increase retail channel to 1.2M
PS3 = 2.7M which would decrease retail channel to 1.5M
360 = 3.0M which would increase retail channel to 1.0M



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

shanbcn on 15 April 2011

It seem PS3 just passed 50m, so expect shipment of 2.1-2.2, which mean Sony didnt reach 15m target.



thx1139 on 15 April 2011

Quarter is complete and this is how things look with VGC numbers in for the whole quarter.. This includes 2 extra days of sales since quarter ended on Thursday.

Console Total Last year Change % Change     Retail Channel Jan 1st 2011
Wii 2,614,113 4,160,186 -1,546,073 -37%     1,000,000
PS3 2.828,938 3,293,806 -464,868 -14%
  1,600,000
X360 2,486,051 2,222,768 263,283 12%
  500,000

So how many were shipped this quarter?

 

Sony indicated that through March 29th they have shipped at the bottom end 2.1M for the quarter. So it appears that they will have shipped slightly over 2.1M for the quarter (2 extra days of shipping to go).  Wouldnt expect much more with the slowing sales in the 2nd quarter.  I would expect about another 100K to leave about 1 million in the retail channel.  With seeing that Sony/Retailer happy with 1 million in retail channel I expect the following shipments for MS and Nintendo.

Wii shipments of about 2.6M to have 1M left in the channel.

X360 shipments of about 2.8M to have 800K left in the channel (MS doesnt need as many consoles in Japan retail channel)



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Nintendogamer on 15 April 2011

Wii shipemnts no less than 2.37, we go NPD numbers and wii was only over tracked by 90,000, nothing major, so we're at 2.520M sellthrouhg, let's say VG is over by about 250K in EMEAA so 2.37M.



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Zlejedi on 15 April 2011

Hmm after NPD I'd say:

Wii 2000-2200k (could be below 2M if they are changing SKU to acompany price drop)

PS3  2800k

X360 2400-2500k



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Seece on 25 April 2011
kowenicki said:

Wiii shipped 86.01 by end of March... what does that give it for the quarter?

I get it at

1.36m shipped 4th Qtr

15.08m for the year.

Think they did some backwards adjustments? They have 15.01 for this FY

Nope just checked, it is 15.08 ... only 70k different though



 

postofficebuddy on 25 April 2011
Seece said:
kowenicki said:

Wiii shipped 86.01 by end of March... what does that give it for the quarter?

I get it at

1.36m shipped 4th Qtr

15.08m for the year.

Think they did some backwards adjustments? They have 15.01 for this FY

Nope just checked, it is 15.08 ... only 70k different though


Accounting error? Or perhaps the difference is units that have left factories vs. units actually in retail possession? I've always been rather confused about the exact definition.



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Seece on 25 April 2011
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:
kowenicki said:

Wiii shipped 86.01 by end of March... what does that give it for the quarter?

I get it at

1.36m shipped 4th Qtr

15.08m for the year.

Think they did some backwards adjustments? They have 15.01 for this FY

Nope just checked, it is 15.08 ... only 70k different though


Accounting error? Or perhaps the difference is units that have left factories vs. units actually in retail possession? I've always been rather confused about the exact definition.

Hmm, well source has 15.08 but the BBC has 15.01
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13186597



 

trestres on 25 April 2011
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:
kowenicki said:

Wiii shipped 86.01 by end of March... what does that give it for the quarter?

I get it at

1.36m shipped 4th Qtr

15.08m for the year.

Think they did some backwards adjustments? They have 15.01 for this FY

Nope just checked, it is 15.08 ... only 70k different though


Accounting error? Or perhaps the difference is units that have left factories vs. units actually in retail possession? I've always been rather confused about the exact definition.

Hmm, well source has 15.08 but the BBC has 15.01
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-13186597

It's 15.08 link

BBC probably meant 15.1 to round up the figures.



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