OLED screen, 3G, 4 core CPU, 4 core GPU, proprietary formats, etc...the technology here is huge, Sony cannot take another U$200 loss per console sold, so 500 bucks sounds fair to me.

Not at all, I'm the voice of reason.

Hummmm really? That makes no sense, if Sony is successful with this lawsuit, it'll make hackers more weary and careful about hacking the device in fear of getting sued, jailed and getting their asshole raped like what might happen to Georgie and failoverflow guys.

It's a pretty expensive piece of hardware to manufacture. I expect Sony to price the top SKU at $349 because if they go above that, people will not buy it no matter what. The low-end SKU(s) go for $249/$299, depending on their features. But even then, $249 seems a bit low end so I'm going for $299 for the low-end SKU and $349 for the high-end one.

Anyway, I'm still slightly concerned Sony might actually make it too expensive but still 'affordable' compared to the PS3, which, of course, would not be very affordable for a handheld. That is, I'm concerned the top-end SKU might actually cost $399.

You do realize the breakdown on all those parts are unlikely to total over $400, right?

Conservative estimate: $350. At most. And I'm willing to wait for iSupply estimates to confirm this.

I'm even willing to step out on a limb and say that the parts total estimate will be at or under $300, which is to say SCE will still be taking early losses after all related costs per unit are factored in, but nowhere near the $200 you suggest, and not at a $500 MSRP.

Feel free to refer back to this in the future.

Even if I'm dead on here, I won't.

The BOM is probably close to U$400-450. Add in box, manual, packaging etc and you have a U$500 machine with Sony making a small loss per console.

true you were the most humble person predicting that gt5 will sell 3.9 million life time and that the 3ds will sell 300 million.

your worse then pachter. and he has a 25% correct rate.

NOPE

$250 is my limit I am willing to spend on consoles.  Thus since I can't honestly see this costing the same or less than the 3DS, I am not worried whether it costs $300 or $600.   All is the same too me.  Out of my range and put on my price cut waiting list.

Besides at moment looks like I can just play most of those games on my PS3. 

Sony needs to get a better list of games, and not just demo'ing basically PS3 games.  Hard to tell what to expect.  If ports, side stories, in between games, or full fledged new games, next in line.  You know like Uncharted 4 and not Uncharted 2 1/2 or 3 1/2.

should clarify before get bashed.  when i say better list of games, i mean a more clear list of games.  Right now we can't name one definate NGP title, or game whateve ryou want to say.  There is no "kid Icarus, whatever"  Its just Uncharted demo, Killzone demo, ect.   

One of the better ways to try to make predictions about the future is to look to the past and try to find similar situations and use those situations to make your prediction.

Being that the PSP was released 5 years after the PS2, was marketed as a portable PS2, the NGP is being released 5 years after the PS3 and is being sold as being (roughly) as powerful as the PS3, it is fair to say that there are a lot of similarities between how the PS2 relates to the PSP and how the PS3 relates to the NGP. The PS2 launched at $300, was $150 when the PSP launched for $250, and the PS3 launched at $600, is (probably) going to be $300 when the NGP launches; and if the relationship between these prices is maintained one would expect the NGP to launch at $500.

Now, being that the PSP was launched months after the Nintendo DS, the PSP was dramatically more powerful than the Nintendo DS, the PSP had a single higher-resolution screen where the DS had two screens with one being particularly advanced or expensive technology (touch screen), and the NGP is being launched months after the 3DS, is dramatically more powerful than the 3DS, and the NGP has a single higher-resolution screen where the 3DS has two screens with one being particularly advanced or expensive technology (glasses free 3D) I think there is a lot of similarities between how the PSP related to the DS and how the NGP relates to the 3DS. The Nintendo DS launched at a price of $150 with the PSP launching at $250, and the 3DS is launching at $250; and if the relationship between these prices is maintained one would expect the NGP to launch at $350 to $450.

Finally, there is a third relationship which I think has relevance but is not particularly well defined. The PSP was in direct competition with “the iPod” but, since there were multiple-iPods (Shuffle, Nano, Video) at launch and the PSP didn’t line up with any one in particular it is difficult to create a direct relationship. At the same time the NGP appears to be in competition with iPod touches, the iPhone and the iPad but doesn’t really line up with any of them in particular. The only real observation I can make was the PSP launched at $250 to compete against devices that were $100 to $400, and the devices the NGP is in competition with are closer to the $200 to $600 range. 

Ultimately, I doubt the NGP will end up being $500 (as the PS3 comparison would indicate) but I also doubt the NGP will be less than $350. The reason for this is simple, there is nothing to indicate that Sony would sell the NGP for the same price or less than the PS3.

For reference, the iSuppli BOM estimate on a 16GB Non 3G iPad is $250 with a manufacturing cost of $9. These estimates were for mid 2010.

The display module is the most expensive component at an estimated $65.

The touchscreen assembly is an estimated $30.

The 16GB of NAND flash is an estimated $29.50.

The 6600 mAh battery is an estimated $21.00.

The A4 microprocessor is an estimated $19.50.

Those are the most expensive components in order.

OLED displays are available on commercial media players priced under $200 currently (Cowon J3).

Sony manufactures and designs OLED displays, making them the most probable supplier for their own OEM displays.

So unless you think the OLED display and CPU/GPU will add $150 to the BOM over an iPad, I'd say your estimate is so far off, it can't be taken seriously by any reasonable means.