One of the better ways to try to make predictions about the future is to look to the past and try to find similar situations and use those situations to make your prediction.
Being that the PSP was released 5 years after the PS2, was marketed as a portable PS2, the NGP is being released 5 years after the PS3 and is being sold as being (roughly) as powerful as the PS3, it is fair to say that there are a lot of similarities between how the PS2 relates to the PSP and how the PS3 relates to the NGP. The PS2 launched at $300, was $150 when the PSP launched for $250, and the PS3 launched at $600, is (probably) going to be $300 when the NGP launches; and if the relationship between these prices is maintained one would expect the NGP to launch at $500.
Now, being that the PSP was launched months after the Nintendo DS, the PSP was dramatically more powerful than the Nintendo DS, the PSP had a single higher-resolution screen where the DS had two screens with one being particularly advanced or expensive technology (touch screen), and the NGP is being launched months after the 3DS, is dramatically more powerful than the 3DS, and the NGP has a single higher-resolution screen where the 3DS has two screens with one being particularly advanced or expensive technology (glasses free 3D) I think there is a lot of similarities between how the PSP related to the DS and how the NGP relates to the 3DS. The Nintendo DS launched at a price of $150 with the PSP launching at $250, and the 3DS is launching at $250; and if the relationship between these prices is maintained one would expect the NGP to launch at $350 to $450.
Finally, there is a third relationship which I think has relevance but is not particularly well defined. The PSP was in direct competition with “the iPod” but, since there were multiple-iPods (Shuffle, Nano, Video) at launch and the PSP didn’t line up with any one in particular it is difficult to create a direct relationship. At the same time the NGP appears to be in competition with iPod touches, the iPhone and the iPad but doesn’t really line up with any of them in particular. The only real observation I can make was the PSP launched at $250 to compete against devices that were $100 to $400, and the devices the NGP is in competition with are closer to the $200 to $600 range.
Ultimately, I doubt the NGP will end up being $500 (as the PS3 comparison would indicate) but I also doubt the NGP will be less than $350. The reason for this is simple, there is nothing to indicate that Sony would sell the NGP for the same price or less than the PS3.
