Correct. I've had this argument with technophiles numerous times before too. Joe 6-pack off the street can't even discern the difference in visual fidelity between a VHS cassette and a DVD. HD(er) devices offer diminishing returns. You're fighting an uphill battle when the argument is that everyone else is as big an A/V whore as yourself.

The technological gains have to be many orders of magnitude for people to stand up and take notice, and that simply cannot occur any further on the graphical front. We'll make tiny, incremental steps towards in-game gameplay that looks like a fully rendered film ... a real time Shrek or real time FF: The Spirits Within. But this process will take another ten years or more, and we'll be on new consoles by then, because this current crop is already obsolete in comparison to a $600'ish desktop computer with a multi-core Intel processor.

This gen, the tech jump occured with the input devices, not the output. That's why Nintendo will win.

I love how all the analysis for Wii's future precludes things like new games, price cuts, and new colors.

Let us just imagine a scenario where the Wii fails to outsell the competition for a period of 2-3 months...

If Nintendo is truly worried that they are on the decline they need only drop the price by $50 or do an SMG bundle. Many consumers wait on the sidelines until a console comes into their price range. Traditionally that range is below $199 and certainly goes through the roof at $149. Nintendo has both these options available in their arsenal.

And boy, don't we like us some colors. Wiis will come in all colors of the rainbow once this thing's done. Expect first out of the gate to be a black Wii, followed by a either red or green. Don't underestimate the Nintendo faithful to purchase the same product twice, just because they make it look a little different. For evidence of this, notice how many DS users have both a phat and a Lite.

And let's not forget that Nintendo is, and always will be, a premier game developer. There are a considerable number of mega-titles coming out in early '08. What do you think: that it just dries up after that? Nintendo keeps these things hush-hush. Why try to sell the system on games that aren't coming out for a year since they only need to sell it on the ones it already has. Certainly we have the uber-casual hit Animal Crossing Wii that should hit by Fall (This will be Nintendo's Home, BTW). And Pikmin 3 should release before XMAS 08.

But naming those games doesn't even get to the heart of it. Have you seen what sells like hotcakes on the DS? Nintendogination is here to stay. Brain Training won't leave any time soon. Nintendo controls that wacky sector of the console market known as the casuals. Why do they like those games? I have no idea....but they eat them up. Expect a few weird titles to launch into the cultural awareness and get heavy rotation on MSNBC, CNN, and maybe even FOX.

While we may not see the sellout of Nintendo's consoles next Christmas, expect the sales for the period between November and December of next year to be at least 2 million more than this year.

not to mention that the graphics in teh game are pretty bad, i mean oftern i would run up on someone to wrench them and they wouldnt even be fully loaded--and dont even get me started on teh first water splash you searound the plain----but the game is stil great besides these faults

not to mention that the graphics in teh game are pretty bad, i mean oftern i would run up on someone to wrench them and they wouldnt even be fully loaded--and dont even get me started on teh first water splash you searound the plain----but the game is stil great besides these faults

 You're right it won't be as big, it'll be bigger, enormous, because Wii fit will be out

mr-money

Your premise makes sense only if people are after game systems in general.
They are looking for Wiis in particular. That is different. Is Nintendo losing money/sales right now? Yes. Will they evenutally make most of those? Probably.

There are also rumors (including in this month's Game Informer) that Nintendo plans to be first out of the shoot next generation. If that is true -- and the Wii2 comes out in 2010. They will have their HD machine when there is a very high penetration. (Also, if that is true, they need to start making them now to meet the 500M LT demand that system will have).

Mike from Morgantown

PS -- OK, 500M sounds like my friend John Lucas. But 250M for a Wii2 from 2010-2015 with China, Korea and probably India in play is not unreasonable. It is possible and maybe even likeley.

Why would Nintendo release a new console when their current one is selling like gangbusters? Same reason they killed the Gameboy line when the DS took off, Ninty will lilely be the last console maker to launch next gen, especially since they will be more interested in new disruptions

In my country, people buy PS3 without knowing what it can do, as in they're buying it because of the brand name only.

And while Playstation is a brand far more established than the Wii, which is new (altho nitendo isn't), it's just a proof if something more innovative comes on the market, even the strongest brand can be bypassed

::chuckle::  The old "graphics may not matter now, but they will in the future!  I promise!"

If the Wii is like the iPod, Nintendo has at least half a decade of ridiculous sales in front of them.

I'll never understand why people hate things just because they're popular. The iPod trifecta of iTunes/hardware/Music Store is brilliant and Apple should be commended for introducing DRM that doesn't suck to the masses, just as Nintendo should be commended for bringing gaming to a whole new level.