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Forums - Sales - Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

bearsfan33 said:

 


The Wii has roughly 80% of the sales in the US as the 360, better sales in Japan, and equal sales in Europe; in total, it is the number 1 selling home gaming console.

And you are telling me that because it hasn't taken over the 360 in the US, that "that's the reason" there is no third party support?  I have a better answer: The Wii does have third party support, but it has it in the form of mini-game titles that will appeal to casual gamers.

The 360 (and the PS3, to some extent) kicks the crap out of the Wii in attach rate because it is appealing to the gamer demographic of last generation.

Look, it is relatively safe to say that if you are posting on a gaming site, you play more than Tetris.  Having said (well, typed) that, I will re-iterate my original point:  I don't care what the Wii does in sales (and neither do other 360 or PS3 owners).  You will never see the types of games that appeal to 360/PS3 owners on the Wii - Nintendo is going after the casual gamers, and the Wii simply could not pull of the graphical demands of a game like Gears of War, UT3, Mass Effect, MGS3, etc.

So, why am I typing this?  Why did I post in this thread? To remind the Wii owners that most 360 and PS3 owners really don't care about Wii sales - we care about eachother's sales figures.  After all, didn't Sony and MS say pretty much the same thing at E3 2006; that the Wii would make a great "companion system" to theirs, and that Nintendo was not in direct competition?  Didn't Nintendo agree????


Yes, to a degree.  Japan is a completely different market.  And until recently few companies put much into the growing European market.  As such, America is a target marget, especially for a game like gears of war.  Japan isn't going to buy it.  The European market will, but like I said, usually Europeans aren't targeted and the Wii only overtook the 360 there a few weeks ago.  As such, America being the biggest market at this time is huge.  If you have an American type game why would you not put it on the 360? 

 And clearly no one saw the demand of Wii (Nintendo included).  A game like Gears takes a good 18-24 months to make.  A mini game compiliation is probably 3-6 months.  The Wii is 13 months old.  I suspect by next Christmas it'll have a couple of games that'll interest you. 

 Are you sure that the 360 and PS3 are kicking the crap out of the Wii in attach rate?  Wii has been moving alot of software recently.  I'd venture to say if you take out the sports titles the Wii is doing very well comparatively without the AAA third party support that the 360 and PS3 have received.

Lastly, it's just fanboyish to say you don't care about the Wii.  You may not like the shift to motion controls and wish the Wii to not succeed, but as a hardcore gamer (PS3 and 360 Demographic) I'm betting that the Wii has enough exclusives to interest you to buy it at some point.  As such, it should at least interest you enough to see if it gets enough games to make the purchase worthwhile.  It's the typical generalization; Wii is kiddy, PS3, 360 are gamers machines.  I know 2 people with a 360.  One now has a Wii, I'm close to getting the other to get one.  I know 1 person with a PS3.  They've had their Wii for a while.  The Wii will get good third party games.  PS3 owners and 360 owners will care and take notice.  Maybe not you, but you aren't the rule.

Hardcore games will get a home on the Wii.  There is no game that can't be done on the Wii.  Look at Resi 5.  That game is Resi 4 with HD.  Resi 4 was on the PS2. 



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I think we'll be surprised by the PS3 and the Wii in 2008. I'll leave it at that.



Mummelmann said:
I think we'll be surprised by the PS3 and the Wii in 2008. I'll leave it at that.

Maybe you and I won't be.  But for the most part, many on this board will be shocked and there may be just a bit of anger by some fanboys. ;)  



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

jjseth said:
Mummelmann said:
I think we'll be surprised by the PS3 and the Wii in 2008. I'll leave it at that.

Maybe you and I won't be.  But for the most part, many on this board will be shocked and there may be just a bit of anger by some fanboys. ;)  


I think we all get your not so subtle inuendo.  Do you have any reason to claim this other than your desire for it to be true?



I am a Gauntlet Adventurer.

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reverie said:
Hello? Don't try to estimate Wii demand for 2008. Not even Nintendo knows how much they can or cannot sell. It's impossible to see sustainable demand because they still have a backlog in the US. They need at least 1 month of shortage-free sales to see what's possible.

I for one hope that they'll do everything to reach 50 % by March 2009 because the 2nd half of the console cycle will be tougher if too many games stay 360/PS3 exclusive. The Wii should become the reference console for multiplatform titles like the PS2 before. That would be ideal for Nintendo. They might need a price drop for that. On the other hand, they could also live without it. It would just be nice for me, because I wouldn't have to buy a PS3 to get every game I desire.

If Nintendo has a couple of months of shortage-free sales, they'll open the floodgates to areas of the world starving for a Wii who haven't been able to get it (such as China -- Vii anyone?). The only way I could see them dropping the price in 2008 is if they over-increased production and had millions sitting in warehouses. I can't imagine this happening, however.

Looking at the numbers again, here's how I see it happening:

Xbox 360: 7-9 million units sold

PS3: 10-12 million units sold

Wii: 21-26 million units sold

This leaves the Wii with a ~50% chance, imo -- it *needs* to reach the high end of its potential for 2008, and Nintendo would have to increase production again. I believe this much is a foregone conclusion considering they haven't gotten their system a world wide release yet.

The Wii needs to outsell the PS3 + Xbox 360 by a combined 6 million units to break the 50% market share. This /is/ a tall order, admittedly, but it's something the Wii could do during the first 7-8 months of 2008. From that point out, maintaining a sales lead over both of the other consoles is a much trickier proposition.

The Wii, however, has had a huge influx of third party support just this year, and a lot of it will come to fruition next in 2008. A lot of those games will have been 18 month dev times, etc. The Wii will almost certainly have more software releases than any other home console in 2008.

I think we'll be surprised by the PS3 and the Wii in 2008. I'll leave it at that.

A $400 console isn't going to surprise anyone.  A $400 console has never sold all that well, and while the 360/PS3 have done better than any other $400 console in history, both of their sales are remarkably slow in the offseason and this will certainly be repeated in 2008.



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yup people will be surprised by how much the Wii is able to sell when Nintendo ramps up production, and how little PS3 and 360 will actually sell (compare the consoles to PSP to see how little they will be able to sell, both are selling far worse than the PSP)



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

I think it has a reasonable chance, as long as Nintendo sort out it's shortage problems



 

CrashMan said:
jjseth said:
Mummelmann said:
I think we'll be surprised by the PS3 and the Wii in 2008. I'll leave it at that.

Maybe you and I won't be. But for the most part, many on this board will be shocked and there may be just a bit of anger by some fanboys. ;)


I think we all get your not so subtle inuendo. Do you have any reason to claim this other than your desire for it to be true?


 There was no inuendo, I just don't want to wade into a tiresome debate again. I have my reasons, and I've summed them up dozens of times in other threads, why would you care anyway? Play your Wii and be happy, that's what gaming is about, right?



That wasn't aimed at you.  From what I've seen you don't tend to make blanket statements based entirely on opinion.

 The same can't be said for all...



I am a Gauntlet Adventurer.

I strive to improve my living conditions by hoarding gold, food, and sometimes keys and potions. I love adventure, fighting, and particularly winning - especially when there's a prize at stake. I occasionally get lost inside buildings and can't find the exit. I need food badly. What Video Game Character Are You?

Mega Man 9 Challenges: 74%

Waltz Tango Jitterbug Bust a move Headbanging
Bunny Hop Mr. Trigger Happy Double Trouble Mr. Perfect Invincible
Almost Invincible No Coffee Break Air Shoes Mega Diet Encore
Peacekeeper Conservationist Farewell To Arms Gamer's Day Daily Dose
Whomp Wiley! Truly Addicted! Truly Hardcore! Conqueror Vanquisher
Destroyer World Warrior Trusty Sidearm Pack Rat Valued Customer
Shop A Holic Last Man Standing Survivor Hard Rock Heavy Metal
Speed Metal Fantastic 9 Fully Unloaded Blue Bomber Eco Fighter
Marathon Fight Quick Draw G Quick Draw C Quick Draw S Quick Draw H
Quick Draw J Quick Draw P Quick Draw T Quick Draw M Quick Draw X
CrashMan said:

That wasn't aimed at you. From what I've seen you don't tend to make blanket statements based entirely on opinion.

The same can't be said for all...


 Oh... I might actually be buying two next gen systems myself next year (PS3 and Wii). Depends on Mario Kart and the price of the new TV we're getting... Also, I'm hoping for another Zelda game!