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Forums - Sales - MEANINGFUL Attach Rate Comparisons!!!

SInce all three consoles bundles some kind of games, lets all stop the argument and include all bundled games with the attach ratio.



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Sqrl said:
Legend, you do realize that the current attach rate system is actually skewed in 360's favor right? So really what you are saying is that you prefer the current system which is always skewed over this system which has the potential to be skewed for the first 6 to 9 months of a consoles life.

Did you actually read anything I typed in my last post?  The data isn't skewed in the 360's favor because attach rates are compared for the same period of time of a console lifespans.  The reason that some people make a big deal out of the 360's attach rate is that it's higher compared to other consoles when compared for the same period of their console's lifespan.  How is comparing the Wii's first year attach rate, the PS3's first year attach rate, and the 360's first year attach rate giving the 360 an advantage?  All are comparing at 12 months into their lifecycle.

Actually I tell you what Sqrl, show me how the 360's numbers are skewed.  Calculate the 360, PS3, and Wii's first year attach rates (using the method NPD and everyone else uses) and explain to me how the numbers are skewed in the 360's favor.



Legend11 said:
Sqrl said:
Legend, you do realize that the current attach rate system is actually skewed in 360's favor right? So really what you are saying is that you prefer the current system which is always skewed over this system which has the potential to be skewed for the first 6 to 9 months of a consoles life.

Did you actually read anything I typed in my last post? The data isn't skewed in the 360's favor because attach rates are compared for the same period of time of a console lifespans. The reason that some people make a big deal out of the 360's attach rate is that it's higher compared to other consoles when compared for the same period of their console's lifespan. How is comparing the Wii's first year attach rate, the PS3's first year attach rate, and the 360's first year attach rate giving the 360 an advantage? All are comparing at 12 months into their lifecycle.

Actually I tell you what Sqrl, show me how the 360's numbers are skewed. Calculate the 360, PS3, and Wii's first year attach rates (using the method NPD and everyone else uses) and explain to me how the numbers are skewed in the 360's favor.


Actually I did explain it quite well and it is you who have failed to read what is posted. I approached the discussion with demeanor of open debate you have approached with a rude and snide demeanor. Do want a discussion or a bitch fest?

I will however indulged you and explain yet again. The comparison, as I said in my first post, is skewed because it doesn't account for reality as it stands NOW. It ignores the most recent year of 360 software sales which means that the data, while valid, is outdated. It may mean that its skewed for the 360 or against it but it does allow a skew to exist. I also pointed out that normally software sales will decline starting in the 3rd year and so this method will likely favor the 360.

If you read my post I pointed this out not to invalidate the method you chose but to illustrate that all methods have inherit flaws and shortcomings. Such things must be accounted for before meaningful and valid conclusions are to be drawn and good anlaysts do so.

Both methods are valid when used properly, the same way a gun can be a useful tool when used responsibly and a murder weapon used irresponsibly.



To Each Man, Responsibility
Sqrl said:
Legend11 said:
Sqrl said:
Legend, you do realize that the current attach rate system is actually skewed in 360's favor right? So really what you are saying is that you prefer the current system which is always skewed over this system which has the potential to be skewed for the first 6 to 9 months of a consoles life.

Did you actually read anything I typed in my last post? The data isn't skewed in the 360's favor because attach rates are compared for the same period of time of a console lifespans. The reason that some people make a big deal out of the 360's attach rate is that it's higher compared to other consoles when compared for the same period of their console's lifespan. How is comparing the Wii's first year attach rate, the PS3's first year attach rate, and the 360's first year attach rate giving the 360 an advantage? All are comparing at 12 months into their lifecycle.

Actually I tell you what Sqrl, show me how the 360's numbers are skewed. Calculate the 360, PS3, and Wii's first year attach rates (using the method NPD and everyone else uses) and explain to me how the numbers are skewed in the 360's favor.


Actually I did explain it quite well and it is you who have failed to read what is posted. I approached the discussion with demeanor of open debate you have approached with a rude and snide demeanor. Do want a discussion or a bitch fest?

I will however indulged you and explain yet again. The comparison, as I said in my first post, is skewed because it doesn't account for reality as it stands NOW. It ignores the most recent year of 360 software sales which means that the data, while valid, is outdated. It may mean that its skewed for the 360 or against it but it does allow a skew to exist. I also pointed out that normally software sales will decline starting in the 3rd year and so this method will likely favor the 360.

If you read my post I pointed this out not to invalidate the method you chose but to illustrate that all methods have inherit flaws and shortcomings. Such things must be accounted for before meaningful and valid conclusions are to be drawn and good anlaysts do so.

Both methods are valid when used properly, the same way a gun can be a useful tool when used responsibly and a murder weapon used irresponsibly.


So in other words you aren't going to compare the first year attach rates for all three consoles.  That's all you had to say, end of discussion.



Legend11 said:

So in other words you aren't going to compare the first year attach rates for all three consoles. That's all you had to say, end of discussion.


If you're only interested in making declarations and are going to avoid the issue why did you bother posting in the first place?

At least you were right about the discussion being over..then again it never started. That would have required you to listen in the first place which you have not done.



To Each Man, Responsibility
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The system could be valid .But ,not using European and Pal numbers and relying on the Top 200 provided in this site (with its innacuracies ) instead in the full info of NPD or MC makes the attempt futile .



Biggerboat said:

software attach rates per console per month.

Wii - total months of system ownership : 48,429,999

total software : 33,858,879

games bought per month per owner : 0.699

 

PS3 - total months of system ownership : 21,022,083

total software : 13,631,231

games bought per month per owner : 0.648

 

360 - total months of system ownership : 107,171,061

total software : 64,576,927

games bought per month per owner : 0.603

** My calculations were based on numbers presented on this site. I worked out the total months of system ownership by looking at the monthly charts and recording how many systems were sold during a specific month. For example 1 console bought in Nov 05 + 1 in Nov 06 + 1 in Dec 07 = 26 + 14 + 1 = 41 months. If anyone spots any errors in my sums let me know and I'll ammend them.

 

You did say that your calculation was based like this 1 * Nov05 + 1 * Nov06 + 1 * Dec07 = 41 months...

I dont see how you reached that figure.... for reference use the table below.

Take a look at my comparison..

 

SL No Month X360 Wii PS3
Consoles LT Sales SW LT Sales Att Rate Consoles LT Sales SW LT Sales Att Rate Consoles LT Sales SW LT Sales Att Rate
1 Nov-05 352,952 352,952 1,450,984 1,450,984 4.1110 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
2 Dec-05 298,384 651,336 1,395,738 2,846,722 2.1429 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
3 Jan-06 264,521 915,857 752,342 3,599,064 0.8215 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
4 Feb-06 188,500 1,104,357 730,322 4,329,386 0.6613 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
5 Mar-06 212,229 1,316,586 1,795,946 6,125,332 1.3641 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
6 Apr-06 313,162 1,629,748 1,436,626 7,561,958 0.8815 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
7 May-06 264,390 1,894,138 967,718 8,529,676 0.5109 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
8 Jun-06 287,713 2,181,851 1,379,430 9,909,106 0.6322 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
9 Jul-06 219,091 2,400,942 1,506,396 11,415,502 0.6274 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
10 Aug-06 212,242 2,613,184 2,311,807 13,727,309 0.8847 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
11 Sep-06 316,488 2,929,672 1,529,894 15,257,203 0.5222 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
12 Oct-06 235,847 3,165,519 1,559,947 16,817,150 0.4928 NA NA NA NA   NA NA NA NA  
13 Nov-06 588,683 3,754,202 4,460,306 21,277,456 1.1881 529,658 529,658 1,621,973 2,237,613 3.0623 219,907 219,907 262,427 445,289 1.1934
14 Dec-06 1,329,061 5,083,263 4,784,284 26,061,740 0.9412 599,250 1,128,908 2,398,291 4,635,904 2.1244 526,746 746,653 1,071,693 1,516,982 1.4353
15 Jan-07 265,584 5,348,847 2,020,382 28,082,122 0.3777 480,218 1,609,126 1,312,303 5,948,207 0.8155 224,153 970,806 588,349 2,105,331 0.6060
16 Feb-07 268,860 5,617,707 2,118,513 30,200,635 0.3771 387,007 1,996,133 1,565,010 7,513,217 0.7840 147,681 1,118,487 502,431 2,607,762 0.4492
17 Mar-07 246,480 5,864,187 2,636,882 32,837,517 0.4497 327,004 2,323,137 1,715,759 9,228,976 0.7386 161,751 1,280,238 976,514 3,584,276 0.7628
18 Apr-07 189,225 6,053,412 1,547,828 34,385,345 0.2557 352,874 2,676,011 1,574,084 10,803,060 0.5882 94,432 1,374,670 494,435 4,078,711 0.3597
19 May-07 207,829 6,261,241 2,248,008 36,633,353 0.3590 477,606 3,153,617 2,301,741 13,104,801 0.7299 98,567 1,473,237 696,909 4,775,620 0.4730
20 Jun-07 271,070 6,532,311 1,977,421 38,610,774 0.3027 551,241 3,704,858 2,291,515 15,396,316 0.6185 113,453 1,586,690 507,291 5,282,911 0.3197
21 Jul-07 169,514 6,701,825 1,960,847 40,571,621 0.2926 440,311 4,145,169 1,827,906 17,224,222 0.4410 172,212 1,758,902 895,306 6,178,217 0.5090
22 Aug-07 386,526 7,088,351 3,359,087 43,930,708 0.4739 621,516 4,766,685 2,965,089 20,189,311 0.6220 195,039 1,953,941 1,331,976 7,510,193 0.6817
23 Sep-07 480,772 7,569,123 5,153,582 49,084,290 0.6809 479,398 5,246,083 1,936,371 22,125,682 0.3691 123,711 2,077,652 919,597 8,429,790 0.4426
24 Oct-07 585,966 8,155,089 3,998,849 53,083,139 0.4904 480,132 5,726,215 2,046,313 24,171,995 0.3574 127,206 2,204,858 946,954 9,376,744 0.4295
25 Nov-07 994,037 9,149,126 11,349,681 64,432,820 1.2405 1,276,532 7,002,747 8,790,471 32,962,466 1.2553 563,158 2,768,016 3,638,372 13,015,116 1.3144
26 Dec-07 1,184,729 10,333,855 9,606,763 74,039,583 0.9296 1,450,260 8,453,007 9,154,783 42,117,249 1.0830 705,498 3,473,514 3,676,583 16,691,699 1.0585

Items marked in red are adjusted monthly figures with respect to LT figures.

Items marked in green are ones showed LT sales > actual sales in the debut month of each console. Possibly due to preorders!

 

NOTES:

1. This is the formula I used for attach rate --> S.W sales for a month / LT sales for each console for that month.

2. If this is to be done more correctly, this would become a complex statistical problem.

3. FYI... all figures are taken from VG charts http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php after going thru each month data.

4. I havent taken the bundled games into consideration.