This

They won't be able to sell that many units anyway because production will certainly be lower than 4 million units a month.

OP: My guess is they'll ship more systems during the first week. Selling out of your initial shipment in 24 hours and then not shipping more for a week would be pretty stupid. It should break 500k units first week on Media Create / VGChartz. Maybe even more.

That'll leave them with roughly 1 million units for March (I'm too lazy to check when the launch week will end on VGChartz ) which is a big number (about 200k units per week depending on the second and third shipments). Sounds good to me.

JP pre-orders for the 3DS open up on Jan. 20th. I hope I can get mine in before stores stop taking them.

Man Japan starts taking pre-orders long after America and even longer after Canada? Why did Canada start taking pre-orders before everyone else? I've had my pre-order since November.

I wouldn't compare a console to a peripheral if Microsoft themselves didn't consider Kinect an independant platform. Many websites, analysts and companies are considering Kinect a platform launch. So with Kinect being considered a platform launch such as sites saying that Kinect is the fastest selling console hardware to date its only logical to compare the 3DS to it.

If Microsoft and most media compare Kinects  success to Wii , 360, PS3 etc...etc... it only makes sense to compare 3DS to it. Hopefully Nintendo will pump out 4-mill a month and kick Microsoft's butt. If not I must admit its not a fare fight considering Kinect only costs 150$ and all pre-existing 360 owners don't need to spend any more then that to enjoy it.

Decent amount, I wonder if any of the games will pass 100k first week (besides Nintndogs plus Cats that is)?

Actually, I'm really curious bout SSF4... if Capcom handles things right, it might end up the best selling version of the game in Japan...

What about if it isn't true and Nintendo just want people to preorder the console as if they were crazy? Good way of business.

I think the preorder you put in was not a "real" or official preorder. What I mean is that your store certainly didn't know in November how many units they'll have at launch. Thus, if e.g. 30 people preorded a 3DS at the store you did, but eventually they only get 20 units at launch, 10 people won't get a console although they preordered.

My guess is that on the 20th in Japan retailers get to know the numbers they'll get in stock and that's when they start taking preorders.

That's all only my guesses, so I might be wrong.

Yah I asked that when I pre-ordered and the lady said they waited for SKU's. She told me that they were taking unlimited pre-orders when I asked about limited stock. She said they expected around 40-50 per store. I was the first person to pre-order at my local EBGames, so I know my unit will come day one.

Though you are probubly right they are likely waiting for confirmed amounts. I don't know why EBGames Canada started taking pre-orders ahead of GameStop in the states. Or why no other retailer in Japan started taking pre-orders eary before they knew how much hardware would be availible.

It doesn't work that way in Japan. If there was a customer who wouldn't get his preorder although he put it in months in advance, all hell would break loose. (figuratively speaking)

It could work in some very small stores with a well-know customer base, but such stores aren't likely to get a shipment on the first day anyway. I'm pretty sure all of the stock will only be in the big stores initially.

I'll try one or two shops tomorrow and see if they start taking preorders. If I can get one, I'm lucky, if not, the world won't end. :D

Microsoft didn't consider the Wii as serious competition 4 years ago and look how the mighty has fallen bringing a motion camera thingy.

It is a perypheral, thats no question about it. It doesn't work by itself. That's the same talk about considering Balance Board a platform. There's a variety of games that use it and some have exclsuive content for it, yet it is a perypheral.

I just pre-ordered one of those 400k launch 3DSs at my local store. :)

The lady behind the counter told me they get 10 of each color on launch day and my pre-order is #4.

That's a bit surprising, because it's a store that mainly sells used books and games. I didn't expect them to get a shipment at all. Good that I went there today. :D