hmmmmmmmm. Honestly i think PS3 will take both the 360 and wii this year in the holidays.

The only 2 retail games for the 360 (Not kinect) is Gears 3 and Forza 4. Xcom will be on PC so i dont count that as an exclusive and kingdoms wont be out until late 2012 according to crytek. Also i think this kinect hype is dying really fast so i dont expect any of the kinect games to preform well at all.

As for for the wii the only game they said is coming out this holiday as an exclusive is zelda. They will more than likely announce a few more titles but again unless its another mario or another wii sports game i dont see them selling well.

Sony in the other hand has  alot of retail and move games coming holiday 2011. UC3, Resistance 3,  Infamous 2, TLG, Twisted metal, Another R&C game. And a couple move games such as heros on the move.

So overall i see the PS3 taking this year with ease. And if sony drops the Price of the PS3 down to $25-$100 the PS3 might even start outselling the wii worldwide.

They will ofcourse need to start marketing the PS3 and it games in order to reach this goal.

Yea gears 3  Looks epic. Well it is epic doing it but epic in the meaning of the word epic. AAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Kudo said that StarWars Kinect and Forza 4 were slated for Christmas 2011.

http://www.ripten.com/2010/11/10/kinects-star-wars-forza-titles-slated-for-christmas-2011/

I think you are underestimating the effect of kinect and word of mouth. It will do nothing but grow and when a price cut for xbox and kinect bundle come, it will be a force to reckon with. Looks like kinect sold close to a million units this last week.  Ps3 is good and all but I don't think that M$ will sit around while they drop price.

KInect seems to be starting to hit a stride just like Wii did in it's first year. I think 2011 will be a record year for xbox again. I think it will do 15 million or more.

Plus all of the Kinect TGS games that where announced.

Steel Battalion: Heavy armor, Haunt, Project Draco, Codename D, Rise of Nightmares( Not sure if these are all exclusive but Steel Battalion is most likely along with others.)

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/112/1121029p1.html

Lets not forget Kingdoms from Crytek either. Looks to be epic.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/06/14/codename-kingdoms-crytek-exclusive/

specifically during the holidays, 360 exclusives will win. Just Gears of War III and a possible halo remake will probably sell more then all the ps3 exclusives that come out during the holidays since a lot of 2011's ps3 exclusives are not coming out during the holidays. This is what I think the sales would look like.

Halo remake 4mil

Gears of War 4mil

Forza 2mil

Assorted Kinect Titles 100k-1.5mil each

Uncharted 3mil

resistance 1.7mil

Twisted Medal 1.5mil

Ratched 800k

Assorted Move titles 100-500k each

This time last year, we didn't know about any of Nintendo's lineup past June 2010. I hope you're not seriously suggesting Nintendo will just release Zelda for holiday 2011 as their lone significant seller?

Of course even if they did, they'd likely still sell more software than anyone else thanks to catalogue sales of stuff like Wii Fit Plus, Wii Party, NSMBWii, DKCR, Mario Kart, etc, etc.

2009 PS3 > 360. So no its not the first time and yes 2011 PS3 > 360.

Oh, you count L4D2 as exclusive i take that back then...

I doubt Forza will sell that much during the holidays.