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Forums - Sales - What will sell more Gran Turismo 5 or Mario Kart wii.

Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
So everyone is saying that Mario Kart will sell almost as much as Grand Theft Auto? Because Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto numbers are close. You have got to be kidding me.

Gran turismo 4 sold 8.79 million on a console with about 100 million+ owners, Double dash sold about 6.6 million on a console with 22 million, MKDS sold 8.28 on a console with less than 60 million units sold, the attach rates on the ninty consoles are much higher than that on the sony consoles


You can't apply that to GT5. Like i've said before, GT sells more when it makes its debut on a next gen console. Check the attach rates of GT3 to the PS2 when it came out and you'll see my point.


PS2 had 4 million at GT 3's launch, PS3 willl barely have two, not to mention PS2 was the console leader in the japanese marketplace, PS3 is a weak second


Look at all regions, not just Japan. And this game sells more in the US and Eu separately than Japan.



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Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007
Parokki said:
I think it's going to be Mario Kart, although not necessarily by a lot.

This is based on my belief that Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto were some of the most casual games of last gen. Unlike other games where you play as a space hamster with a gun, or an angry Spartan general on a quest to thin out the local pantheon etc, which most "normal" people would find awfully geeky, you're just driving a car, or being a regular (criminal) guy. I don't have much interest in either, but I think we can look at the sales data, and say a lot of people find it very easy to relate to the idea of the game, and not feel like a gigantic nerd while doing so.

Now call me some kind of a retarded fish-monkey if you will, but I don't think the kinds of people who bought most copies of the previous GT games have a current gen console yet, and the high price of the HD ones will very possibly be a problem for many of them.

I explained that point pretty badly, but even if I was wrong, I don't think it's entirely far fetched to assume Nintendo's best selling franchise is going to outsell Sony's best selling franchise, the difference in install base being what it is.
Are you saying that Mario Kart is Nintendo's best selling franchise?

 



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Sullla on 14 December 2007
tokilamockingbrd said:
Why did GT4 sell so much less than GT3? Been wondering that I have them both and liked GT4 3x better... Is it possible that the popularity for GT is not what it used to be(8 million is still hecka popular)

That's an excellent question, and there's a good reason for Gran Turismo 3's very high sales numbers. The game was actually bundled with the PS2 in a number of markets, especially European ones. I have no idea how many units that was responsible for moving, but I would guess several million at the least. That's why a comparison between Gran Turismo 4 (which was not bundled) and Mario Kart: Double Dash is probably a more accurate one. (It's also possibly that my memory is wrong and I'm totally off, but I definitely seem to recall seeing GT3 bundle deals...)

Just to provide the numbers again:

Mario Kart 64 Nintendo2.245.522.119.87
Super Mario Kart Nintendo3.823.591.358.76
Mario Kart DS Nintendo2.772.842.678.28
Mario Kart: Double Dash Nintendo0.893.851.866.60
Mario Kart: Super Circuit Nintendo1.002.661.795.45

Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec Sony1.897.135.8514.87
Gran Turismo Sony2.553.994.3110.85
Gran Turismo 2 Sony1.713.963.709.37
Gran Turismo 4 Sony1.162.635.008.79

Mario Kart 64 held up quite well against Gran Turismo and GT2, despite being on a platform with about 1/3 of the Playstation's sales. Double Dash similarly performed fairly in relation to Gran Turismo 4, considering that the Gamecube was even more brutally crushed by the PS2. With the Wii outselling the PS3, I expect that sales will flip around this generation. Mario Kart Wii should sell ~10m, while Gran Turismo 5 ends up at ~6m. It has nothing to do with how good the games are (GT5 will have a much higher attach rate), just the install base of each platform.



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
So everyone is saying that Mario Kart will sell almost as much as Grand Theft Auto? Because Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto numbers are close. You have got to be kidding me.

Gran turismo 4 sold 8.79 million on a console with about 100 million+ owners, Double dash sold about 6.6 million on a console with 22 million, MKDS sold 8.28 on a console with less than 60 million units sold, the attach rates on the ninty consoles are much higher than that on the sony consoles


You can't apply that to GT5. Like i've said before, GT sells more when it makes its debut on a next gen console. Check the attach rates of GT3 to the PS2 when it came out and you'll see my point.


PS2 had 4 million at GT 3's launch, PS3 willl barely have two, not to mention PS2 was the console leader in the japanese marketplace, PS3 is a weak second


Look at all regions, not just Japan. And this game sells more in the US and Eu separately than Japan.


 Sure but Japan is a big chunk, not to mention PS3's install base is very different than PS2's, PS2 was the causual console, PS3 is not, even in NA and others I don't expect GT 5 to do what GT3 did



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

damkira on 14 December 2007

@peterpotamus

and GT4 sold 8.79 million on a console with  an install base infinitely greater than PS3s.



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Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007
Sullla said:
tokilamockingbrd said:
Why did GT4 sell so much less than GT3? Been wondering that I have them both and liked GT4 3x better... Is it possible that the popularity for GT is not what it used to be(8 million is still hecka popular)

That's an excellent question, and there's a good reason for Gran Turismo 3's very high sales numbers. The game was actually bundled with the PS2 in a number of markets, especially European ones. I have no idea how many units that was responsible for moving, but I would guess several million at the least. That's why a comparison between Gran Turismo 4 (which was not bundled) and Mario Kart: Double Dash is probably a more accurate one. (It's also possibly that my memory is wrong and I'm totally off, but I definitely seem to recall seeing GT3 bundle deals...)

Just to provide the numbers again:

Mario Kart 64 Nintendo2.245.522.119.87
Super Mario Kart Nintendo3.823.591.358.76
Mario Kart DS Nintendo2.772.842.678.28
Mario Kart: Double Dash Nintendo0.893.851.866.60
Mario Kart: Super Circuit Nintendo1.002.661.795.45

Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec Sony1.897.135.8514.87
Gran Turismo Sony2.553.994.3110.85
Gran Turismo 2 Sony1.713.963.709.37
Gran Turismo 4 Sony1.162.635.008.79

Mario Kart 64 held up quite well against Gran Turismo and GT2, despite being on a platform with about 1/3 of the Playstation's sales. Double Dash similarly performed fairly in relation to Gran Turismo 4, considering that the Gamecube was even more brutally crushed by the PS2. With the Wii outselling the PS3, I expect that sales will flip around this generation. Mario Kart Wii should sell ~10m, while Gran Turismo 5 ends up at ~6m. It has nothing to do with how good the games are (GT5 will have a much higher attach rate), just the install base of each platform.

 

GT 4 sales were dissapointing because the lack of online play. And i'll say it again, the GT series sells more when it makes it's debut on a next gen console. 



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d21lewis on 14 December 2007
damkira said:
misteromar mk4 said:
Im backing MK, On the gamecube double dash sold a heap and by the time MK is released the wii will have passed the gc lifetime sales.

 MK:DD was the best selling game on the gamecube.. but I think the new MK will be an even greater seller for three reasons. 

1. I think the Wii will have a greater install base than the GC by February.

2. the new MarioKart will have multiplayer options, and the Wii has a reputation of a fun system to play with your friends. MK is an infinitely better series than Mario Party, and MP8 has been huge.

3. In 2008, there is a lack of announced "aaaa" first party titles for the Wii. I think MK and Brawl will be the default choices for people looking for  

 GT5 will sell well but this series has been in decline since the PS1 days. Not to mention that relatively few people will own a PS3 and those PS3 owners and, for the small install base, will have a lot of titles to choose from. 


I think Super Smash Bros. Melee was the 'Cube's biggest seller.

Gnizmo on 14 December 2007
Peter Potamus said:
Parokki said:
I think it's going to be Mario Kart, although not necessarily by a lot.

This is based on my belief that Gran Turismo and Grand Theft Auto were some of the most casual games of last gen. Unlike other games where you play as a space hamster with a gun, or an angry Spartan general on a quest to thin out the local pantheon etc, which most "normal" people would find awfully geeky, you're just driving a car, or being a regular (criminal) guy. I don't have much interest in either, but I think we can look at the sales data, and say a lot of people find it very easy to relate to the idea of the game, and not feel like a gigantic nerd while doing so.

Now call me some kind of a retarded fish-monkey if you will, but I don't think the kinds of people who bought most copies of the previous GT games have a current gen console yet, and the high price of the HD ones will very possibly be a problem for many of them.

I explained that point pretty badly, but even if I was wrong, I don't think it's entirely far fetched to assume Nintendo's best selling franchise is going to outsell Sony's best selling franchise, the difference in install base being what it is.
Are you saying that Mario Kart is Nintendo's best selling franchise?

 


 It was the best selling game for Nintendo last generation.

@Sulla - Comparing Double Dash to GT4 seems odd since Double Dash was bundled with the Gamecube in America for a little while at least. 



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Shido on 14 December 2007

Both will do around 7 million, it wil be 1,5 million difference at max. Why?, becuase GT5 will be to the PS3(and I bet the PS3 will have better sales than the GC) what DD was to the GC. I see MKWii having sales between MK64 and DD, but with more other good games coming out it won't pass MK 64 sales.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007

here is the difference, PS1 and PS2 were leaders at the time of GT's launch PS3 isn't, its last, GT games have poor attach rates, MK has strong attach rates

 

Also PS3 is selling less than the GCN in cetain regions



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)