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Forums - Sales - What will sell more Gran Turismo 5 or Mario Kart wii.

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Peter Potamus said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Peter Potamus said:
damkira said:

@peterpotamus

and GT4 sold 8.79 million on a console with an install base infinitely greater than PS3s.


GT2 dropped in sales after GT1. So if you go by that. GT5 will sell more than GT4. Knowing that the trend goes like this.

GT sales > sales of GT2

GT2 sales < sales of GT3

GT3 sales > sales of GT4

Based on this trend, GT4 sales< sales of GT5

So GT5 should sell more than GT4. And what if Sony bundles GT5 like they did GT3? Will sales spike? This topic would make more sense if both Mario Kart and GT5 released soon and we knew whether Nintendo or Sony would bundle any of these games, so that's not the case.


Yet the biggest trend has already been broken, with PS3 in third place


You didn't read my entire post, did you? The PS3 install base will be the same when GT 5 comes out as the PS2 when GT 3 came out. Care to explain your comment?

 Install base  may be the same size overall, but not in Japan, or NA, in fact in both places its less than GCN sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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damkira on 14 December 2007
Peter Potamus said:
damkira said:

@peterpotamus

and GT4 sold 8.79 million on a console with an install base infinitely greater than PS3s.


GT2 dropped in sales after GT1. So if you go by that. GT5 will sell more than GT4. Knowing that the trend goes like this.

GT sales > sales of GT2

GT2 sales < sales of GT3

GT3 sales > sales of GT4

Based on this trend, GT4 sales< sales of GT5

So GT5 should sell more than GT4. And what if Sony bundles GT5 like they did GT3? Will sales spike? This topic would make more sense if both Mario Kart and GT5 released soon and we knew whether Nintendo or Sony would bundle any of these games, so that's not the case.


 Ok, but for GT5 to outsell GT4, it would have to selll 9 million copies on a system with an install base currently at around 7 million. Assuming that PS3 doubles its sales by the time GT5 is released, that would still be an attach ratio of nearly 70%. No game has ever had an attach ratio that high, not even Halo. I don't doubt that GT5 will sell well, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too much.



Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007
damkira said:
Peter Potamus said:
damkira said:

@peterpotamus

and GT4 sold 8.79 million on a console with an install base infinitely greater than PS3s.


GT2 dropped in sales after GT1. So if you go by that. GT5 will sell more than GT4. Knowing that the trend goes like this.

GT sales > sales of GT2

GT2 sales < sales of GT3

GT3 sales > sales of GT4

Based on this trend, GT4 sales< sales of GT5

So GT5 should sell more than GT4. And what if Sony bundles GT5 like they did GT3? Will sales spike? This topic would make more sense if both Mario Kart and GT5 released soon and we knew whether Nintendo or Sony would bundle any of these games, so that's not the case.


Ok, but for GT5 to outsell GT4, it would have to selll 9 million copies on a system with an install base currently at around 7 million. Assuming that PS3 doubles its sales by the time GT5 is released, that would still be an attach ratio of nearly 70%. No game has ever had an attach ratio that high, not even Halo. I don't doubt that GT5 will sell well, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too much.


 Lifetime sales. Do you think the PS3 install base will stay at 14 million for its lifetime? Thats why that attach ratio makes no sense.



Didja get that thing I sentcha?

Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007

Let me ask all of you a question, of the 14 million + Wii owners, how many do you think owned a GC?

Now to use attach ratios from a GC game when you know that the Wii's current install base is entirely different makes no sense.



Didja get that thing I sentcha?

Famine on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:

 PS1 and PS2 were in the lead before those games launched, PS3 had 5 million units at FFX launch in japan, 4.5 at GT3's launch in japan, 


But is that enough to discredit the PS3 from getting another surge in sales? I'm not saying sole first position, I'm saying moving pretty impressive hardware numbers. Even though the PS1 was in the lead, the N64 was most certainly catching up... FAST!

I mean, Sony really wasn't a household name when it came to gaming, but those titles helped propel it. Sometimes the names associated with the brand helps out a lot.

I can see why it's logical to discredit them this round, but at the same time I see why it's logical that it will prevail yet again.

Maybe not 30 million, but more along the lines of 15-20 million in hardware sold. Could be pretty feasible.



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Girl Gamer Elite on 14 December 2007

Hard to say really.



scorptile on 14 December 2007

mk wii will destroy GT5. install base plus wii sales are gonna drive MK. GT5 hhmm same game better graphics hmmmm i dont tihnk people will be as impressed with it then the previous ones. GT4 flopped compared to the firt three. part three rode the sucess of the ps2 and so did GT for the ps one. so easy thing to say taht the GT5 will do better? how do you know the ps3 is gonna be 12 million units sold by then? for all you know it could fall flat again after xmas like this past year and from what i saw in sales so far it is more likely gonna happen and besides who as in casual gamers is gona shel out over 460 dollars for one game? answer to that is none of them. they will go buy MK wii before they will spend the money for a system and a game.



dick cheney loves me, he wants to take me hunting

 

mkwii code- 1977-0565-0049

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 December 2007
Famine said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

 PS1 and PS2 were in the lead before those games launched, PS3 had 5 million units at FFX launch in japan, 4.5 at GT3's launch in japan, 


But is that enough to discredit the PS3 from getting another surge in sales? I'm not saying sole first position, I'm saying moving pretty impressive hardware numbers. Even though the PS1 was in the lead, the N64 was most certainly catching up... FAST!

I mean, Sony really wasn't a household name when it came to gaming, but those titles helped propel it. Sometimes the names associated with the brand helps out a lot.

I can see why it's logical to discredit them this round, but at the same time I see why it's logical that it will prevail yet again.

Maybe not 30 million, but more along the lines of 15-20 million in hardware sold. Could be pretty feasible.


 Nope, not really PS1 was selling like 3 million more in japan ove rthe N64 when the FF7 launched, it had already won the race



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Peter Potamus on 14 December 2007
scorptile said:
mk wii will destroy GT5. install base plus wii sales are gonna drive MK. GT5 hhmm same game better graphics hmmmm i dont tihnk people will be as impressed with it then the previous ones. GT4 flopped compared to the firt three. part three rode the sucess of the ps2 and so did GT for the ps one. so easy thing to say taht the GT5 will do better? how do you know the ps3 is gonna be 12 million units sold by then? for all you know it could fall flat again after xmas like this past year and from what i saw in sales so far it is more likely gonna happen and besides who as in casual gamers is gona shel out over 460 dollars for one game? answer to that is none of them. they will go buy MK wii before they will spend the money for a system and a game.

 They were impressed with GT 3 when it came out. And the rest of your post was broken english so I have to get a child to read it to me.



Didja get that thing I sentcha?

Famine on 14 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:

 Nope, not really PS1 was selling like 3 million more in japan ove rthe N64 when the FF7 launched, it had already won the race


...um... yeah?

That's what I said, that those titles helped PS1 sell more as a result, which made the N64 unable to catch up.