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Forums - Sales - Analysis: Kinect Could Drive Xbox 360 To 1.7M U.S. Sales This December

I guess it can sell some more in USA... 1.9M?



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Will do more than 1.7 mill. Did 1.4 mill In Nov with one less week when the 3 other weeks in Nov are far below what any week in Dec does. As long as MS can get shipments right, 2 mill will be easy.



 

Seece said:

Will do more than 1.7 mill. Did 1.4 mill In Nov with one less week when the 3 other weeks in Nov are far below what any week in Dec does. As long as MS can get shipments right, 2 mill will be easy.

Where did I get 1.27 mill for Nov and not 1.37mill? Was 1.27 mill the Wii number?



"If Microsoft can make those third-parties successful on Kinect in ways that Nintendo has not on the Wii, then this temporary dominance for the Xbox 360 could continue well through 2011.

And, we should note, Microsoft still hasn't played its next big ace: a true price drop. They're long overdue, and we expect to see one sometime in mid-2011, especially if Xbox Kinect sales remain robust through the spring."

Ok, let's talk about this because, imo, these are arguably the two most important points in the article.

1) The downside to Nintendo consoles going way back to the N64 were that 3rd party titles in general sold significantly less than Nintendo's titles.  It's EXTREMELY relevant with the Wii.  But with Kinect, Microsoft's first party catalog and potential isn't as potent as Nintendo's always is.  And, as mentioned in the article, with the current GREAT relationship that MS has developed with 3rd party publishers, they should recognize the opportunity to stand out that they have with Kinect that they simply CAN'T have on the Wii.  Look for healthy (and hopefully quality) 3rd party support for Kinect.

2) The reality that the 360 is having its best year ever with NO price cut is simply nuts.  As we've seen, price cuts usually cause the biggest jump in sales for consoles with redesigns being 2nd.  Well they've benefited from a redesign and still have the price cut card to play later next year.  If that price cut is not just for the base console but also for Kinect and Kinect bundles ....... quite the potential.  Kinect could carry sales through the spring and, after the typical summer lull, have a late summer price cut like in 2008 to keep sales sustained (as they did this year with the Elite redesign>Arcade redesign>Halo Reach>Kinect strategy) through the end of next year.  360's peak year?  TBD, folks.  TBD.



xbox 360 is doing things no one ever thought possible thanks to kinect

kinect is doing things no one ever thought possible thanks to microsoft

microsoft is doing things no one ever thought possible thanks to __________

Simply amazing that MS has turned into such a beast in the video game industry



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Slimebeast said:
Seece said:

Will do more than 1.7 mill. Did 1.4 mill In Nov with one less week when the 3 other weeks in Nov are far below what any week in Dec does. As long as MS can get shipments right, 2 mill will be easy.

Where did I get 1.27 mill for Nov and not 1.37mill? Was 1.27 mill the Wii number?

Yup and Yup.

Nov Average - 345k ish
Dec Average at his 1.7 mark - 340k

Black Ops could have pushed 100k HW, it doesn't seem to have done much if anything for the PS3, so I don't think it did much for 360 either, but 100k just in case.

Kinect pushed around over 700k purchases that month, momentumn like that doesn't die a few weeks later.

I see a 400k-500k weekly average over Dec (around 410k, this week already ....) meaning 2 - 2.5 million for Dec NPD.



 

kowenicki said:
Immortal said:

Should do significantly more. 2m, I'd say, is a lowball. I'd think it would barely miss out on 2.5m.

The whole "transition of market leader" point is useless though. Even a price cut won't be able to sustain this year's sales and Wii could easily beat 360 in terms of price cuts.

Also, really, revenue means nothing. Give me profit or disappear into inexistence, ;P.

I agree

Good job MS made some this last few qtrs....  Ninty on the other hand...

 

Actually Nintendo made profit last quarter. They just made loss during first quarter because they wrote down echange rate losses for whole fiscal year. That's why their half year fiscal report showed slight loss. During this quarter they will probably return to make insane profits as holidays are crazy time for Nintendo's HW and SW.



I think most people here will now say that the Kinect is a successfull product.  Contrary to popular belief just a few months back.

 

Congrats MS and Kinect, I think both deserve the success.  And I also think they will both continue it into 2011 and 2012 easily.   Over 50 million 360s confirmed!



"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."

Quote by- The Imortal John Wayne, the original BADASS!

 

 

 

It is pretty amazing when you think about it. No price cut for over 2 years (discounting old skus doesn't count...) and in some areas i.e UK price actually went up. But the demand for the console is still very high in its 6th year. Makes you think what will happen when they do decide to drop the price!



It's going to be far more than that. Using a bare min off Nov ain't gonna cut it.