"If Microsoft can make those third-parties successful on Kinect in ways that Nintendo has not on the Wii, then this temporary dominance for the Xbox 360 could continue well through 2011. And, we should note, Microsoft still hasn't played its next big ace: a true price drop. They're long overdue, and we expect to see one sometime in mid-2011, especially if Xbox Kinect sales remain robust through the spring." Ok, let's talk about this because, imo, these are arguably the two most important points in the article. 1) The downside to Nintendo consoles going way back to the N64 were that 3rd party titles in general sold significantly less than Nintendo's titles. It's EXTREMELY relevant with the Wii. But with Kinect, Microsoft's first party catalog and potential isn't as potent as Nintendo's always is. And, as mentioned in the article, with the current GREAT relationship that MS has developed with 3rd party publishers, they should recognize the opportunity to stand out that they have with Kinect that they simply CAN'T have on the Wii. Look for healthy (and hopefully quality) 3rd party support for Kinect. 2) The reality that the 360 is having its best year ever with NO price cut is simply nuts. As we've seen, price cuts usually cause the biggest jump in sales for consoles with redesigns being 2nd. Well they've benefited from a redesign and still have the price cut card to play later next year. If that price cut is not just for the base console but also for Kinect and Kinect bundles ....... quite the potential. Kinect could carry sales through the spring and, after the typical summer lull, have a late summer price cut like in 2008 to keep sales sustained (as they did this year with the Elite redesign>Arcade redesign>Halo Reach>Kinect strategy) through the end of next year. 360's peak year? TBD, folks. TBD.
