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Forums - Sales - The Official November 2010 NPD Thread

These numbers somewhat confirm my long standing fear that the USA market is in the long term turning away from Sony's systems. Check out how quickly hardware has changed in the 2000s for the USA market (for GBA, GC, Wii, DS, N64 for Nintendo, PS1, PS2, PSP, PS3 for Sony, Xbox, X360 for Microsoft)

                       2001        2002         2003        2004       2005     2006      2007       2008      2009     2010

Nint HW      7.2m         9.2m        11.1m     10.6m      8.5m    10.4m    15.8m   20.1m    20.8m     16.7m?

Sony HW      8.4m        10.6m      7.5m         5.4m       9.2m     8.4m     10.3m    9.9m      8.6m      6.3m?

Mic HW        1.4m       3.2m         3.1m         4.0m       2.8m     4.3m      4.6m     4.7m      4.8m       7.3m?

 

If you look at 2001-2003, the Nintendo figures are N64 / GC / GBA (they'd probably be a bit higher if you had GBC / GB hw too, but I don't). Sony's 2001-2004 figures are from only two systems - PS1 / PS2.  For 2004, GC / GBA  fell off and N64 was totally dead but DS made up some of the drop. For Sony, PS1 / PS2 both fell sharply in 2004 and Microsoft had its peak Xbox 1 year which hurt PS2. In 2005, GBA and GC fell further, and DS sold poorly. PSP did fairly well in 2005, PS2 rebounded, and PS1 declined - so it was a good year for Sony. Microsoft had a difficult transition year. In 2006, GBA, GC, Wii, and DS were all doing modest to good numbers. PS2 / PSP were still doing decent numbers. X360 was starting tot ake off.

The real transition happens in 2007 - Sony had in theory three active, viable systems on the market in 2007, but sold less systems then when it had only two viable systems in 2002. Same thing happened in 2008. In 2009 / 2010 PS2 and PSP have dropped off much more quickly than PS3 has risen. In 2010, it finally looks like PSP and PS2 have fallen to the point where Microsoft is now officially the second biggest player, for both hardware and software sold in the USA market.

I really don't see that changing any time soon - Microsoft doesn't make portables, and Wii is Wii - but with PSP and PS2 only likely to do 1.5m or so in 2011, Microsoft probably only has to sell 6m X360s in 2011 to beat Sony for hardware again - and thats likely doable. It doesn't look like PSP2 will be out by mid 2011, and we're likely two years or more away from PS4. So if Microsoft is to make permanent user base inroads, now is the time, given the PS2 userbase is all but disbanded and the PS3 is trending to be only half the PS2, or less in the USA market.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Big holidays for 360, wii and DS!! All exceeding expectations!

I had a feeling wii was undertracked since it did 600k in BF alone, and it just had to average around 200k in the other weeks to make any sense at all!It did similar to 2009 numbers, even a tad higher shich says something!! And im glad DK is above 400k! 

360 wow, best month ever in its NPD history if im not wrong? And we havent had December numbers yet... my prediction that the 360 would do so well in the west is coming true now. Kinect seems to have exploded it.

PS3 though is very low imo. GT5 failed to have an impact



TheSource said:

Both are capable of 2.5m Decembers although I'm not 100% convinced Microsoft has enough Kinects to pull that off. Presumably they've reserved 2m out of 5m for EMEAA and Japan right? So that would mean 1.5m for the Americas, 750,000 extra systems from their usual Nov-Dec numbers (3.5m vs. 2.8m?). Wii should increase alot again if it went up 5 fold from October. Anywhere from 2.5m - 3.5m for Wii in December and 1.8m - 3m for X360 is probably possible, depending on the supply of the Kinect bundles that is allocated for the USA. X360 has tended to rise 80% from Nov to Dec in previous years though, so thats probably a good baseline. Wii tends to jump up 2.5x on average from Nov to Dec.


Plus you've got that walmart deal...



Did someone expect that ? I think that everything was already said so I will remain silent.



Udraw did 190,000 (at $70 a pop, thats a nice opening for THQ). NFS did  417,000. I'd expect Udraw to be up in Dec over Nov.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Around the Network

Altrough performance of PS3 in America is sad I'll find some hapinness in HD twins selling more than 50% of what Wii did.

 

Also those numbers might burry any hope we had of next gen starting in 2012.



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB

@ The source

What is the exact PS2 numbers for the same year as the wii and 360. The wii still looks way ahead while the 360 has consistently risen and is now above it



kopstudent89 said:

@ The source

What is the exact PS2 numbers for the same year as the wii and 360. The wii still looks way ahead while the 360 has consistently risen and is now above it


X360 has been on the market for 61 months.

12 Months to Month 61 (inclusive) for X360: 6.24m by NPD for the USA

12 Months Month 61 (inclusive) for PS2: 5.20m by NPD for the USA

 

Wii has been on the market for 49 Months.

12 Months to Month 49 (inclusive) for Wii: 8.52m by NPD for the USA

12 Month to Month 49 (inclusive) for PS2: 5.77m by NPD for the USA

 

Wii vs PS2 in 49 Months: 31.83m (Wii) vs. 24.96m (PS2)

X360 vs PS2 in 61 Months: 23.53m (X360) vs. 30.17m (PS2)

 

Wii is currently tracking 14 months ahead of PS2 in the USA, and that should increase dramatically in December.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

@ Source

I'm pretty sure Wii is defo gonna be number 1 next month and take the year too, but given the historic (for 360 anwyay) rise over October, and Kinect seemingly being a big hit there, what would be the top end figure 360 could achieve next month?



 

TheSource said:
kopstudent89 said:

@ The source

What is the exact PS2 numbers for the same year as the wii and 360. The wii still looks way ahead while the 360 has consistently risen and is now above it


X360 has been on the market for 61 months.

12 Months to Month 61 (inclusive) for X360: 6.24m by NPD for the USA

12 Months Month 61 (inclusive) for PS2: 5.20m by NPD for the USA

 

Wii has been on the market for 49 Months.

12 Months to Month 49 (inclusive) for Wii: 8.52m by NPD for the USA

12 Month to Month 49 (inclusive) for PS2: 5.77m by NPD for the USA

 

Wii vs PS2 in 49 Months: 31.83m (Wii) vs. 24.96m (PS2)

X360 vs PS2 in 61 Months: 23.53m (X360) vs. 30.17m (PS2)

 

Wii is currently tracking 14 months ahead of PS2 in the USA, and that should increase dramatically in December.

360, 6.5 mill behind, did PS2 start trending down from the 61 month mark? Could 360 possibly overtake it at some point?