The basis for my 360 NA estimates is that I believe at this point MS can sell whatever 360 they manufacture especially with Kinect. It is strictly just availability. So I believe that they got another 500K out in NA last week.
Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.
Wii will be up a fair amount in Japan (its December - and leggy sw is rising). This is the week that Wii got the Wii Fit bundle in Europe, and several USA retailers are bundling Wii and Wii Fit Plus together this week for a 10% discount. Given December and the new Euro-bundle (and the interesting results on the European SW charts this week) Wii looks like it will be up pretty substantially in EMEAA. As for the Americas, the WF Plus and Wii bundle, alongside DKC / Michael Jackson / JD2 / Wii Party / Epic Mickey, should be enough to keep up or flat in the Americas. Target is also giving away free $20 download cards for Wii this week, so there is some "value added" discounting going on this week too.
Walmart is offering Wii for $150 in the USA (with 2 games) during Dec 5-11. That should be a huge week. Its basically a 25% discount at a time when Wii is doing 600k / week anyway in the USA. Pricing elasticity means a 25% discount would create a 50% surge in demand, roughly speaking. Unfortunately, since its only Walmart doing it, the surge is at only 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, and so the overall market is likely to jump 15% from Walmart doing it and probably another 5% from others matching it. That would put Wii at a minimum of 720,000 though if it does 600,000 for the Dec 4 week.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
| TheSource said: Wii will be up a fair amount in Japan (its December - and leggy sw is rising). This is the week that Wii got the Wii Fit bundle in Europe, and several USA retailers are bundling Wii and Wii Fit Plus together this week for a 10% discount. Given December and the new Euro-bundle (and the interesting results on the European SW charts this week) Wii looks like it will be up pretty substantially in EMEAA. As for the Americas, the WF Plus and Wii bundle, alongside DKC / Michael Jackson / JD2 / Wii Party / Epic Mickey, should be enough to keep up or flat in the Americas. Target is also giving away free $20 download cards for Wii this week, so there is some "value added" discounting going on this week too. Walmart is offering Wii for $150 in the USA (with 2 games) during Dec 5-11. That should be a huge week. Its basically a 25% discount at a time when Wii is doing 600k / week anyway in the USA. Pricing elasticity means a 25% discount would create a 50% surge in demand, roughly speaking. Unfortunately, since its only Walmart doing it, the surge is at only 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, and so the overall market is likely to jump 15% from Walmart doing it and probably another 5% from others matching it. That would put Wii at a minimum of 720,000 though if it does 600,000 for the Dec 4 week. |
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| TheSource said: Wii will be up a fair amount in Japan (its December - and leggy sw is rising). This is the week that Wii got the Wii Fit bundle in Europe, and several USA retailers are bundling Wii and Wii Fit Plus together this week for a 10% discount. Given December and the new Euro-bundle (and the interesting results on the European SW charts this week) Wii looks like it will be up pretty substantially in EMEAA. As for the Americas, the WF Plus and Wii bundle, alongside DKC / Michael Jackson / JD2 / Wii Party / Epic Mickey, should be enough to keep up or flat in the Americas. Target is also giving away free $20 download cards for Wii this week, so there is some "value added" discounting going on this week too. Walmart is offering Wii for $150 in the USA (with 2 games) during Dec 5-11. That should be a huge week. Its basically a 25% discount at a time when Wii is doing 600k / week anyway in the USA. Pricing elasticity means a 25% discount would create a 50% surge in demand, roughly speaking. Unfortunately, since its only Walmart doing it, the surge is at only 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, and so the overall market is likely to jump 15% from Walmart doing it and probably another 5% from others matching it. That would put Wii at a minimum of 720,000 though if it does 600,000 for the Dec 4 week. |
Good analysis, you have compiled a lot of information to make the analysis coherent. What about the others consoles?How many unities sold are you expecting for the 360 and the PS3 for the Dec 4 week?
| TheSource said: Wii will be up a fair amount in Japan (its December - and leggy sw is rising). This is the week that Wii got the Wii Fit bundle in Europe, and several USA retailers are bundling Wii and Wii Fit Plus together this week for a 10% discount. Given December and the new Euro-bundle (and the interesting results on the European SW charts this week) Wii looks like it will be up pretty substantially in EMEAA. As for the Americas, the WF Plus and Wii bundle, alongside DKC / Michael Jackson / JD2 / Wii Party / Epic Mickey, should be enough to keep up or flat in the Americas. Target is also giving away free $20 download cards for Wii this week, so there is some "value added" discounting going on this week too. Walmart is offering Wii for $150 in the USA (with 2 games) during Dec 5-11. That should be a huge week. Its basically a 25% discount at a time when Wii is doing 600k / week anyway in the USA. Pricing elasticity means a 25% discount would create a 50% surge in demand, roughly speaking. Unfortunately, since its only Walmart doing it, the surge is at only 1/4 to 1/3 of the market, and so the overall market is likely to jump 15% from Walmart doing it and probably another 5% from others matching it. That would put Wii at a minimum of 720,000 though if it does 600,000 for the Dec 4 week. |
Preview already has projected that Wii will be down 45K to 60K for the week in question. Last year this was the week NSMBWii launched and pushed sales up 134%. Week of Dec 4th didnt have many special offers in NA. As for week ending Dec 11th Walmart deal could just draw sales away from other retailers, but lets wait and see how week ending Dec 4th came out first. I cant find any Wii deal on the current Target advertisement.
Also to add Walmart deal is $50 gift card with Wii purchase at $199.
Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.
Wii at $150 (with a gift card) for three weeks at Walmart is among the reasons it did 3.81m by NPD last December. Alot of you guys give too much credit to NSMB Wii - it likely raised the Wii 500k at launch and the rest was from retailers and Wii priced down over Nov-Dec
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
| TheSource said: Wii at $150 (with a gift card) for three weeks at Walmart is among the reasons it did 3.81m by NPD last December. Alot of you guys give too much credit to NSMB Wii - it likely raised the Wii 500k at launch and the rest was from retailers and Wii priced down over Nov-Dec |
I dont recall Wii at $150 for three weeks last year, I recall one week. If it did then that was in effect a temporary price reduction for nearly all of the holiday selling season and I agree 100% it wasnt NSMBWii. Also Dont get me wrong I dont believe that NSMBWii raised the Wii much after the 1st couple of weeks. It just added to the library that made consumers believe the console will be supported with good software.
Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.
Yup. Its possible your prediction. Lets see how Wii does this week :D
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tombi123 said:
|
They went up last year
thx1139 said:
I dont recall Wii at $150 for three weeks last year, I recall one week. If it did then that was in effect a temporary price reduction for nearly all of the holiday selling season and I agree 100% it wasnt NSMBWii. Also Dont get me wrong I dont believe that NSMBWii raised the Wii much after the 1st couple of weeks. It just added to the library that made consumers believe the console will be supported with good software. |
The odd thing is, it seems like the deal was December 5-12, but VGC actually has the Wii dropping significantly that week. I can't remember if they started the deal early, or maybe the weeks just got mixed up after some adjustment.
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