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Forums - Sales - Statistical anomolies, predictions and unlikely million-sellers (Wii)

Conegamer said:
Degausser said:
Conegamer said:
Degausser said:

 It's worth remembering that a portion of these legs are simply due to price cuts. How much it's very hard for us to tell, but even some of the games listed in the original post are half price or better in the UK alongside their apparent rise in sales. 

 Some of the sales used are distorted by Black Friday too, which is fine, but chances are some of the trends you're alluding to are going to be exclusive to the last 5 weeks of the year.

The issue is that, as can clearly be seen (and as many will tell you), the legs for a Wii game are somewhat larger than that for the HD twins. Why is this? Is it due to a price cut? Doubtful; Nintendo games hardly ever get price cuts yet they keep selling at a steady rate!

The Wii games are more "evergreen". The Wi is known for some titles (NSMBWii, MKWii, Wii fit) and new people buying a Wii get one of these titles with it as well. Therefore, as long as the Wii continues to sell, so will these games.

That's my theory anyway, and with that I shall see you later!

 I don't view the legs of first party titles the same as third party.

 I think Nintendo games keep selling simply because they have such massive appeal, and Nintendo don't let them fall in price. Hell, I've seen advert for both NSMBWii and Mario Kart Wii this month, Nintendo are still advertising these games, putting them at the front of store shelves etc. Nintendo have got this down to an absolute tee and are doing magnificient.

 The third party games however, which show legs, as shown in the OP often do so after price cuts. The third parties just haven't got their games to hold their price and keep selling like Nintendo do, for whatever reason. My guess is simply that when a customer goes into buy a Wii game, they don't care what came out last week, they care that one is $40 and the other is $50, whereas Nintendo games hold enough appeal to convince them otherwise, or something. 

 I've thought about this alot before and really need to write alot more to explain my though behind this, but it's almost midnight here so tonight is not the right time :P.

 If this thread is still bumping around when i have a looksie on here tommorow I'll expand my thoughts a bit if it seems to fit conversation.

I would enjoy that

However, your point does seem to have some relevance...however, if that's the case, why does Just Dance keep on selling? That hasn't got a price cut?

You could say that's a bugdet game, so how about Mario and Sonic?

You could say that's brand recognition, so how about de Blob?

 

Basically, for every game there's a reason for a slight bump in sales (price cut, brand recognition etc.) but since it occurs so regularly and so often on the Wii then there has to be more to the Wii audience which I don't understand...

Nintendo games are the largest anomolies here, but they have both 

 Righty, I'll try keep this in English :P. In my view there are 3 different trends observable for console software this gen, for 3 different 'groups' - Nintendo Software, Third Party Wii software and HD software.

 1)First up is the Nintendo stuff, and nothing needs to be said about how mental some of it's sales are. NSMBW, MKWii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports etc all sell over huge time periods at full price with constantly high sales. I think the wii audience isn't one to rush out and buy a game on launch, and when they do wonder into a Game store they're instantly going to be drawn to the new Mario or Wii ___, the brand assures quality and consumers are drawn to it at risk of being stung by another third party bug fest.

 Nintendo also marketing this software on a year schedule, pushing more consumers into the shop to pick these games up and hold up their legs, but ultimately i think it's simply that the Wii___ and Mario brands are such massive draws. This is further enforced imo when you look at alot of Nintendo's other brands - Metroid, Animal Crossing, Kirby, all successful games but nowhere near the staying power of Mario and Wii___, even with similiar marketing campaigns.

 2) Next up is Third party Wii stuff, the most infamous software this gen. With regards to that showing legs, the stuff that likes to stick around nearly exclusively falls into strong branding or budget priced games. A quick look at this weeks chart (For games which have been there 10 weeks) throws out Hasbro, Star Wars, Toy Story, Harry Potter, Just Dance, Club Penguin, Cabela Hunts etc. Interestingly when I just looked at the games pricing on Amazon, all of them could be bought for under $40 (alot of them under $30), and that was just from shopping around on one retailer.

 Obviously using Black Friday week isn't the best time to judge, but when I've looked at this stuff in the past it's a similiar trend, the top Wii third party stuff (Showing legs) isn't full price and the biggest hits - Just Dance, Cabela, Toy Story Mania, Club Penguin etc weren't full price to begin with. 

3) HD software - going a bit off topic so won't touch on these much, but the emphasis for these is much more on marketing the hell out of a game for a big 2-3 week launch and then letting it die. The legs die accordingly, but seemingly price cuts don't 'boost' software like Wii stuff due to what I guess is a consumer base more inclined to buy used software, and a consumer base who will move onto the next big marketed gam as oppose to buying last months news.

  The figures are rough and tough to quantify, but I find it hard to deny that nearly all Wii games that stick around (Other then Ninty's 'big names') do so at reduced price. I view this as the typical Wii consumer being someone who goes into a shop unaware of what they intend to buy - and then deciding that off of which games brand they recognise and opting for what cheaper. A trend we're seeing more now is that companies like Ubisoft, Activision and THQ are successfully positioning this cheaper software in stores with a targeted marketing campaign.

 I'm in no way trying to say this is a bad thing or that Wii legs are 'worse' cause of the price tag, it's just something I've noticed and people often neglect. 

 Also, with regards to De Blob, it is a bit of an oddity but it's worth remembering it's biggest 'jump' in legs all fall in the 3-4 weeks in December leading up to Christmas, which fall just outside it's '10 week launch' period thing. I believe that was also when THQ began some TV adverts for the game.

 Will try to reply to anyones posts but got alot to do today :). This is just my musings and what I've seen, I'm sure it's not flawless but it is quite interesting.

 

 



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Degausser said:
Conegamer said:
Degausser said:
stopstopp said:
Degausser said:

 It's worth remembering that a portion of these legs are simply due to price cuts. How much it's very hard for us to tell, but even some of the games listed in the original post are half price or better in the UK alongside their apparent rise in sales. 

 Some of the sales used are distorted by Black Friday too, which is fine, but chances are some of the trends you're alluding to are going to be exclusive to the last 5 weeks of the year.


Provide 5 examples of full time price cuts on first party nintendo. I want to see these supposed price cuts

 There are some, albeit first party titles are rarer.

 My post was more aimed at the third party titles listed in the OP though, such as Sonic Colors (Already £17 / £10 with another game), Monster Hunter Tri (£17) and seems to be a trend with when a Wii games sales pick up. I've no idea how things are in the USA, but from what I've gathered and read, the legs often have alot in common with price cuts. I'm not trying to put a downer on anything here, just pointing it out.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE tell me where you can get Tri new for £17. I want to get it for a friend for Christmas but it's too expensive. As someone else has already said, they can't see it for any less than it's RRP...

Also, almost every game gets a price-cut at some point, but a price cut doesn't have the same prolonged effect on sales as games on the Wii do, and has been shown (in the OP)

 Cheapest is £19 now, was £17 a few weeks:

http://www.shopto.net/WII/VIDEO GAMES/WIIMO13-Monster Hunter Tri.html?affiliate_source=aw&awc=2943_1291553782_22d3329ff3bcf0f861dfb0fe878e7dc0

EDIT: IT's also under £10 if you can get into a Costco, but not many people can. Worth a mention :P. Might be store specific but I got it for £9.95 at Milton Keynes Costco :D.

 My suggestion is the prolonged effect of sales on the Wii is caused by the price cut, but only on the Wii. The two go hand in hand. It's very hard to quantify, and is obviously just based off my experience in the UK, but I typically don't see Wii games (Bar Nintendo's own) hold their price for very long, and they quickly become dirt cheap (Got Madworld for £4, Samba Di Amigo £5) etc.

 It's somewhere in the middle of the two anyway, and probably varies on a case by case basis. The NPD figures for 2009 were that first party Wii games sold for on average $55 per copy, whereas third party sold on average $37 per copy, which to me suggest price cuts have to be considered somewhere for third party software.

 (Source is from Micheal Pachter when he responded to Neogaf). It ran the news on a number of sites earlier in the year.

Hmm, well thanks for the link (none left there now )

Also, the reason these games become dirt cheap is, like Squilliam rightly said, they are all games vying for shelf space in a landscape dominated by Nintendo. Many games retail at bugdet price (Just Dance: £19.99, even Epic Mickey at £24.99) which of course drags the average down.

Does a price cut skew the data? Yes, but even without price cuts the data is undeniable; Wii games have different sales patterns compared to their HD counterparts, price cut or not 



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.

Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Degausser said:
Conegamer said:
Degausser said:
Conegamer said:
Degausser said:

 It's worth remembering that a portion of these legs are simply due to price cuts. How much it's very hard for us to tell, but even some of the games listed in the original post are half price or better in the UK alongside their apparent rise in sales. 

 Some of the sales used are distorted by Black Friday too, which is fine, but chances are some of the trends you're alluding to are going to be exclusive to the last 5 weeks of the year.

The issue is that, as can clearly be seen (and as many will tell you), the legs for a Wii game are somewhat larger than that for the HD twins. Why is this? Is it due to a price cut? Doubtful; Nintendo games hardly ever get price cuts yet they keep selling at a steady rate!

The Wii games are more "evergreen". The Wi is known for some titles (NSMBWii, MKWii, Wii fit) and new people buying a Wii get one of these titles with it as well. Therefore, as long as the Wii continues to sell, so will these games.

That's my theory anyway, and with that I shall see you later!

 I don't view the legs of first party titles the same as third party.

 I think Nintendo games keep selling simply because they have such massive appeal, and Nintendo don't let them fall in price. Hell, I've seen advert for both NSMBWii and Mario Kart Wii this month, Nintendo are still advertising these games, putting them at the front of store shelves etc. Nintendo have got this down to an absolute tee and are doing magnificient.

 The third party games however, which show legs, as shown in the OP often do so after price cuts. The third parties just haven't got their games to hold their price and keep selling like Nintendo do, for whatever reason. My guess is simply that when a customer goes into buy a Wii game, they don't care what came out last week, they care that one is $40 and the other is $50, whereas Nintendo games hold enough appeal to convince them otherwise, or something. 

 I've thought about this alot before and really need to write alot more to explain my though behind this, but it's almost midnight here so tonight is not the right time :P.

 If this thread is still bumping around when i have a looksie on here tommorow I'll expand my thoughts a bit if it seems to fit conversation.

I would enjoy that

However, your point does seem to have some relevance...however, if that's the case, why does Just Dance keep on selling? That hasn't got a price cut?

You could say that's a bugdet game, so how about Mario and Sonic?

You could say that's brand recognition, so how about de Blob?

 

Basically, for every game there's a reason for a slight bump in sales (price cut, brand recognition etc.) but since it occurs so regularly and so often on the Wii then there has to be more to the Wii audience which I don't understand...

Nintendo games are the largest anomolies here, but they have both 

 Righty, I'll try keep this in English :P. In my view there are 3 different trends observable for console software this gen, for 3 different 'groups' - Nintendo Software, Third Party Wii software and HD software.

 1)First up is the Nintendo stuff, and nothing needs to be said about how mental some of it's sales are. NSMBW, MKWii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports etc all sell over huge time periods at full price with constantly high sales. I think the wii audience isn't one to rush out and buy a game on launch, and when they do wonder into a Game store they're instantly going to be drawn to the new Mario or Wii ___, the brand assures quality and consumers are drawn to it at risk of being stung by another third party bug fest.

 Nintendo also marketing this software on a year schedule, pushing more consumers into the shop to pick these games up and hold up their legs, but ultimately i think it's simply that the Wii___ and Mario brands are such massive draws. This is further enforced imo when you look at alot of Nintendo's other brands - Metroid, Animal Crossing, Kirby, all successful games but nowhere near the staying power of Mario and Wii___, even with similiar marketing campaigns.

 2) Next up is Third party Wii stuff, the most infamous software this gen. With regards to that showing legs, the stuff that likes to stick around nearly exclusively falls into strong branding or budget priced games. A quick look at this weeks chart (For games which have been there 10 weeks) throws out Hasbro, Star Wars, Toy Story, Harry Potter, Just Dance, Club Penguin, Cabela Hunts etc. Interestingly when I just looked at the games pricing on Amazon, all of them could be bought for under $40 (alot of them under $30), and that was just from shopping around on one retailer.

 Obviously using Black Friday week isn't the best time to judge, but when I've looked at this stuff in the past it's a similiar trend, the top Wii third party stuff (Showing legs) isn't full price and the biggest hits - Just Dance, Cabela, Toy Story Mania, Club Penguin etc weren't full price to begin with. 

3) HD software - going a bit off topic so won't touch on these much, but the emphasis for these is much more on marketing the hell out of a game for a big 2-3 week launch and then letting it die. The legs die accordingly, but seemingly price cuts don't 'boost' software like Wii stuff due to what I guess is a consumer base more inclined to buy used software, and a consumer base who will move onto the next big marketed gam as oppose to buying last months news.

  The figures are rough and tough to quantify, but I find it hard to deny that nearly all Wii games that stick around (Other then Ninty's 'big names') do so at reduced price. I view this as the typical Wii consumer being someone who goes into a shop unaware of what they intend to buy - and then deciding that off of which games brand they recognise and opting for what cheaper. A trend we're seeing more now is that companies like Ubisoft, Activision and THQ are successfully positioning this cheaper software in stores with a targeted marketing campaign.

 I'm in no way trying to say this is a bad thing or that Wii legs are 'worse' cause of the price tag, it's just something I've noticed and people often neglect. 

 Also, with regards to De Blob, it is a bit of an oddity but it's worth remembering it's biggest 'jump' in legs all fall in the 3-4 weeks in December leading up to Christmas, which fall just outside it's '10 week launch' period thing. I believe that was also when THQ began some TV adverts for the game.

 Will try to reply to anyones posts but got alot to do today :). This is just my musings and what I've seen, I'm sure it's not flawless but it is quite interesting.

 

 

You are correct, it is very interesting. A lot of what you say is also true in regards to the "evergreen" nintendo titles and budget 3rd Party Wii games. 

Also, the bit I bolded is probably the most important thing in regards to the legs, prolonged advertisement. I'm seeing many adverts for Goldeneye still, heck, even Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit! But the adverts for Black Ops have died down and are now non-existent, so expect the sales to dip accordingly. Apart from that a very informative musing and also a very interesting read



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 

In my opinion the new super mario bros was a piece of crap compared to the originals. didnt re invent A THING. They where just pissed at LBP taking there platformer lime light XDDDDDD



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.

Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 

In my opinion the new super mario bros was a piece of crap compared to the originals. didnt re invent A THING. They where just pissed at LBP taking there platformer lime light XDDDDDD

Perhaps, but I still get kicks playing with some mates the multiplayer, throwing them of the platform in 8-7 and into the lava in 8-4, into holes, stealing coins etc.

It may not be as good as the originals, no, but it's at least better than LBP



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 

In my opinion the new super mario bros was a piece of crap compared to the originals. didnt re invent A THING. They where just pissed at LBP taking there platformer lime light XDDDDDD

Perhaps, but I still get kicks playing with some mates the multiplayer, throwing them of the platform in 8-7 and into the lava in 8-4, into holes, stealing coins etc.

It may not be as good as the originals, no, but it's at least better than LBP

yeah because it not like LBP did everything new super mario bros does plus creating levels and a huge community is it ;)



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.

Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 

In my opinion the new super mario bros was a piece of crap compared to the originals. didnt re invent A THING. They where just pissed at LBP taking there platformer lime light XDDDDDD

Perhaps, but I still get kicks playing with some mates the multiplayer, throwing them of the platform in 8-7 and into the lava in 8-4, into holes, stealing coins etc.

It may not be as good as the originals, no, but it's at least better than LBP

yeah because it not like LBP did everything new super mario bros does plus creating levels and a huge community is it ;)

Yeah, but LBP has some stale platforming and broken level design, and the multiplayer is awful. Kirby's epic yarn is better even



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:
Conegamer said:
Chibi.V.29 said:

super mario brows was obviously gona sell well

Many people believed it wouldn't break 2 million though, and laughed when Nintendo said it could rival (and even beat!) MW2 of the 360. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it is easy to say that Nintendo has revived the platforming genre. If FW sales of DKCR are anything to go by, then it looks as though it could follow a VERY similar pattern! 

In my opinion the new super mario bros was a piece of crap compared to the originals. didnt re invent A THING. They where just pissed at LBP taking there platformer lime light XDDDDDD

Perhaps, but I still get kicks playing with some mates the multiplayer, throwing them of the platform in 8-7 and into the lava in 8-4, into holes, stealing coins etc.

It may not be as good as the originals, no, but it's at least better than LBP

yeah because it not like LBP did everything new super mario bros does plus creating levels and a huge community is it ;)

Yeah, but LBP has some stale platforming and broken level design, and the multiplayer is awful. Kirby's epic yarn is better even


uuuuuuuuuuuuuh no :D the multi player was amazing. LBP = The game that never ends :D



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.