| Pineapple said: Actually, that's not completely true. I've had quite a keen eye on Mario Kart Wii, as I even before it launched insisted it would be the best selling game of the generation, barring Wii Sports and Wii Play. I don't think it will be now, though. New Super Mario Bros. Wii will be less than 4 million behind Mario Kart Wii by the start of 2011 (I have them at ~ 24.75 million vs 21 million), and it's selling at a far higher pace. It's also likely to lose to Wii Sports Resort. Mario Kart Wii will only have a 1-1.5 million (24.75 vs ~ 23.5) lead on Wii Sports Resort by the end of the year, and Wii Sports Resort too has a far higher momentum.
I'm not sure how high Mario Kart Wii will go. It looks to be selling around 4 million in 2010, quite a lot down from the 7.3 million of 2009. I've nearly always said Mario Kart Wii will definitely exceed 30 million, but now I'd say that 30 million seems to be pretty much exactly where it will end. It could reach 35 million with a platinum release and a long generation. Wii Sports Resort and New Super Mario Bros. Wii should both end in the 35-45 million range, which ends higher I have no idea. Making an "expected top 10 games" list could be interesting. The only game I really see challenging the very top is New Super Mario Bros. DS. It's pretty much selling neck-to-neck with Mario Kart Wii as of right now. However, its sales will die out slightly sooner, due to the DS death being before the Wii's, so 28-33 million seems like a likely result for it. So excluding my expected top 2 obviously bundled games, and Wii Play, the list becomes 1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 35-45 million After that, it gets a bit tricky. You have Nintendogs ending in the 25-26 million range, Black Ops possibly making a number near that height, Wii Fit Plus possibly making that high a number, and then Mario Kart DS which should see 22-24 million or so. Also, Pokemon Gold/Silver at 23.10 million I'd say this seems the most likely 8. Nintendogs - 25-26 million 10. Pokemon Gold/Silver - 23.10 million (With the possibility of Black Ops or Wii Fit Plus beating MKDS or Gold/Silver).
So a bit more lengthy an answer than you asked for, but I'd say that Mario Kart Wii is fairly certainly going to end in the 3rd to 5th best selling non-bundled game of all time range, depending on how Nintendo plays this generation and how they handle Player's Choice. Most likely 3rd spot. |
NMSB has benefitted from bundling recently. If MK gets bundled too, then NMSB will have a hard time catching up. NMSB legs could be cut a bit short if a new console is released by Nintendo as well. MK could still take the checkered flag in the end.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.
