Bloody bundles making everything so hard. I'm starting to feel a bit inclined to do a quarter-by-quarter comparison of the games now, to see their sales perseverance. Particularly for Mario Kart Wii.
Mario Kart Wii:
Quarter 2 2008 (launch quarter) - 6081k
Q3 08 - 2113k
Q4 08 - 5141k
Q1 09 - 1829k (drop of 13.5% from last non-holiday quarter)
Q2 09 - 1310k (drop of 28.4%)
Q3 09 - 1164k (drop of 11.2%)
Q4 09 - 3074k (drop of 40% since from previous holiday quarter)
Q1 '10 - 1032k (drop of 11.4% since last non-holiday quarter)
Q2 '10 - 770k (drop of 25.4%)
Q3 '10 - 524k (drop of 32%)
Q4'10 - So far 642k, looking to be around 1750k
This doesn't really bone too well for Mario Kart Wii. Its sales being so much higher than mostly everything else's makes it hard to see that it really is dropping a notch over 7% a month.
With no bundle, Mario Kart Wii's next year sales would, according to the trends, be something ala
Q1 '11 - 450k
Q2 '11 - 340k
Q3 '11 - 275k
Q4 '11 - 1050k
Total: 2205k
I'd expect the numbers to be slightly higher than that, but not by much. 2250-2750k seems likely, unless the bundling is excessive.
New Super Mario Bros. Wii up next.
Q4 09 (launch quarter) - 9962k
Q1 '10 - 3486k
Q2 '10 - 1675k (drop of 51%)
Q3 '10 - 795k (drop of 51%
Q4 '10 - 1678k, likely to be around 5000k, but this number is heavily inflated by bundles)
Still, if there was no bundle, New Super Mario Bros. Wii's sales would, with a slightly lower drop than last year's (lower absolute sales practically always means a lower drop)
Q1 '11 - 1000k (40% down from Q3 '10)
Q2 '11 - 600k
Q3 '11 - 360k
Q4 '11 - 1500k (this one is quite hard to estimate)
Total - 3460k
So I guess you do have a point. If there were no bundles, and everything followed the same trend as it already has, New Super Mario Bros. Wii would never catch Mario Kart Wii.
Now, the truth is that New Super Mario Bros. Wii does have more bundling. Apparently, Mario Kart Wii already has gotten a bundle in Europe (but it hasn't reached into any of the numbers on VGC yet), so that should be interesting to see.
Even with just that bundle, Mario Kart Wii does actually have a fair chance to best New Super Mario Bros. Wii. And Wii Sports Resort's sales could easily be cut off by another Wii series game, or be eliminated by replacing Wii Sports. I guess you're right, Mario Kart Wii does stand a good chance of becoming the best selling non-bundled game of all time. Personally, I'm really rooting for that.
