Well, going by most of those sites, the Move seems to be doing pretty good, too.
BestBuy: The Move controller is backordered and will take 1-2 weeks to arrive.
Toys R Us: The Move and Nav controlers are sold out.
Target: The Move controller and the PS Eye are both sold out.
Amazon: The Move controller is sold out.
Gamestop & Game: Everything seems to be in stock at the moment, except the PS Eye at Game.
Amazon.uk: The Move controller and the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle are sold out.
Amazon.de: The Move and Nav controllers, as well as the Move Starter Bundles (which includes the 320GB Console Bundle) and PS Eye, are sold out.
I also noticed you forgot Wal-mart. Online they seem to be sold out of the 250GB Bundle, but still have the sensor and 4GB Bundle (though you have to purchase 2 discounted games along with them. On the Move side, they are sold out of the Move Bundle w/ an additional game and controller, as well as the Move standalone controller.
Then I guess there is also Newegg. The have both Kinect Console Bundles, but are out of stock for the standalone sensor. On the Move side, they are out of Move controllers.
In conclusion, I think both Sony and MS are going to enjoy the sales of their motion controls this holiday, and sales are going to be very interesting. And to answer your question, I think they would both be fools to not have enough supply to meet demand by Black Friday in America. Not sure when the holidays really kick off in the other parts of the world, though.