Capulous said:
theprof00 said:
Capulous said:
Yep, they increased their projected forecast from 3 million to 5 million for the holidays. So the end of 2010, they are re-supplying stores on a consistent basis and they have a lofty projection for Kinect. I don't see why they would need create an artificial shortage; especially with all they have done to promote it.
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Artificial shortage is very useful and widely used practice. It's both free-advertising and hype inducing. People are very social and often conform to group pressure. I saw a study in which 5 actors and one test subject were shown 2 lines of similar length and asked which line was longer. Each answer was given in order of a row with the test subject being the 4th to answer. After a certain amount of time, the actors started saying the shorter line was longer. By the time the test subject came up, he was under visible distress and saying that it was the shorter line was the longer one. There were many other discoveries in social pressure in this study, but just for simplification, people tend to want what everyone else wants. If something seems popular enough, they will adhere to the social pressure and conform.
Artificial shortages are a very real and very effective form of advertising.
Also, you have to take in the context that this is still november and kinect was just released. Right now, it makes sense to underproduce in order to build up hype further down the road during december and earlier on black friday where people are really gearing up to spend. Sales of kinect will definitely be down this week and possibly the next (but still only slightly), but as soon as black friday hits it's going to be up to 500k per week, either leveling off til new years, or increase by 20-30% per week in the same time period. It really depends on what the actual demand is. So, I'd predict 3-3.5M by newyears in the US, and availability by black friday or shortly after.
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I never said artificial shortages were never done. MS put $500 million into advertising Xbox/Kinect this holiday. It was put on various shows (Oprah especially) and it has been on the news in various places. It is getting plenty of exposure and hype. I guess we will see in the coming weeks if there was an artificial shortage for Kinect.
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I don't recall them ever saying that 500M$ was just marketing for the release of kinect. But it's possible. Regardless, seeing a product on tv doesn't equate to good advertising. Of course, advertising in itself is crucial, but it's also theorized that commercial advertising actually has an upper limit of effectiveness, as in, the effects of advertising level off at a certain amount of exposure (It is also theorized that it can be detrimental to have too much). I don't think it has had "too much" advertising, but I believe it is as recognizable as it can possibly be, and awareness is the main point of advertising.
Other forms of advertising have their strengths and hype and social desirability are strong ones. It's one of the reasons why viral marketing is seeing such a huge influx of demand.
To summarize, advertising is for awareness while hype is for purchase pressure. People have an inherent tendency to mistrust advertising. If there is a strong enough sensation of genuine customer demand, the effects of advertising are increased dramatically.
But yes, as you said, it does not prove that it is artificially manufactured demand. It is only a very strong possibility which will reveal itself later on. Keep in mind though that it may never be completely available. One of the main detractors to influence is the opinion that the demand was in fact artificial and manipulated. Customers in that case tend to rebel against the product. Nintendo, for example, kept underproducing products for long after the optimal selling period. Whether this is done as concealment, or simply to extend the hype over a length of time is known only by Nintendo. But there are extensive measures in place to prevent customer awareness of manipulation.
