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To answer the orginal question: most likely January, after the holiday season.

It will be interesting to see how much the average Ebay selling price for a Kinect kit changes after Black Friday, but currently it's less $190. And as long as MS keeps $299 Kinect bundles in stock, I don't really see that average price changing much.

But there is currently no reason to believe that MS won't hit their projections as inventory is moving as fast as current production can keep up.