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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

yo_john117 on 06 January 2011
Mr Puggsly said:
Metallicube said:
Mr Puggsly said:
Metallicube said:

I highly doubt it. In order to sell 20 million, people REALLY need a reason to keep buying Kinects, it needs the constant flow of good games to back it up and keep it propped up. And there is still nothing from the Kinect games out now or the ones that have been announced that tells me Kinect will have any kind of staying power.

I think the Wii proved casual games with motion technology have staying power.

Kinect offers a very unique experience not found on other consoles. It also breathes new life into some genres that are very popular on the Wii.

I own a Kinect and its blast. It definitely has staying power.

The difference is the Wii has a plentiful library of quality games, and the support of strong Nintendo franchises. Aside from Dance Central, maybe Kinect Adventures and Kinect Sports, I don't see that quality on Kinect's lineup, either now or in the future. Simply being "casual" doesn't get it a free pass to success. I think the various failed third party efforts at "casual" software on Wii has proven that.

If a hardware console/peripheral/whatever doesn't have the games to back it up, it will falter, because the purpose of the hardware is to play the software. Doesn't matter how cool controller-less gaming might be. And so far all I really see on Kinect is a few good games that Wii has already done, and a whole lot of duds that resemble the bottom of the barrel third party shovelware on the Wii.

360 has a plentiful library of quality games as well. Kinect isn't a console, its a perhiperal. The 360 already offers one of the best core experiences on the market. Now it also offers some of the best motion gaming on the market.

There's a big demand for genres like party, exercise, and dancing games. The Kinect delivers them in a way that's arguably more entertaining than ever.

My sister and her family for example have had a Wii for years. They recently bought the Kinect bundle and have shown more interest in those motion games than Wii games. They also dabble in core games like Modern Warfare, Gears, Tomb Raider, etc.

The 360 is now the total package! Unless you want a decent platformer... stick with the Wii for that.

God damn!  Freaking nailed that on the head!

If KINECT can keep the momentum I think it has a chance of hitting 20 million by the end of next year.



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Slimebeast on 08 January 2011

Congratz Toastboy for your prediction and how you managed to pull out all those haters on the first and second page and forcing them to eat crow.

But to be honest I would have called you crazy too. Originally I predicted 5 million Kinects lifetime as the maximum.



Seece on 14 January 2011

37.5% there! Should surpass 10 mill before E3.



 

NotStan on 14 January 2011
Seece said:

37.5% there! Should surpass 10 mill before E3.


If going by shipped numbers it'll probably go even higher, sold through, ie VGC, probably about 10.2M is a reasonable assumption :p Effectively 3m to do in 6 months of sales



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Seece on 14 January 2011
NotStan said:
Seece said:

37.5% there! Should surpass 10 mill before E3.


If going by shipped numbers it'll probably go even higher, sold through, ie VGC, probably about 10.2M is a reasonable assumption :p Effectively 3m to do in 6 months of sales

Weel 2.5 mill in 20 weeks = 125k a week on average.

Shouldn't be too difficult, actually with stock sorted it should stay above that. Another 8 mill holiday season seems likely, so 20 mill by end of 2011 is a possibility ... and many thought it wouldn't do it lifetime ....



 

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NotStan on 14 January 2011
Seece said:
NotStan said:
Seece said:

37.5% there! Should surpass 10 mill before E3.


If going by shipped numbers it'll probably go even higher, sold through, ie VGC, probably about 10.2M is a reasonable assumption :p Effectively 3m to do in 6 months of sales

Weel 2.5 mill in 20 weeks = 125k a week on average.

Shouldn't be too difficult, actually with stock sorted it should stay above that. Another 8 mill holiday season seems likely, so 20 mill by end of 2011 is a possibility ... and many thought it wouldn't do it lifetime ....

Haha! I personally doubted it'd break 10-12.5M too! Well it managed to prove me wrong... In one damn holiday season :p

And yeah I think it should stay above that, I would assume that the months ahead up to E3 will probably all be above 100k. During the summer drought however, it has a chance to fall below 75-100k. Whichever way you spin it, awesome year ahead of us.



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Boutros on 14 January 2011

My prediction was that it would do it for sure but not in 2 years. I'm still kind of thinking that's what will happen.

Holidays 2012 is when it should reach 20 million I think.



Seece on 14 January 2011
Boutros said:

I originally thought it would do it for sure but not in 2 years. I'm still kind of thinking that's what will happen.

Holidays 2012 is when it should reach 20 million I think.

:-S

What do you expect holiday 2011 then?



 

NotStan on 14 January 2011
Boutros said:

My prediction was that it would do it for sure but not in 2 years. I'm still kind of thinking that's what will happen.

Holidays 2012 is when it should reach 20 million I think.


It would need to average about ~125k a week to be in line with your prediction! From now.. Until Dec 2012! I reckon the Holidays 2011 will bump up the average to at least 200k a week for 2011.



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Boutros on 14 January 2011
Seece said:
Boutros said:

I originally thought it would do it for sure but not in 2 years. I'm still kind of thinking that's what will happen.

Holidays 2012 is when it should reach 20 million I think.

:-S

What do you expect holiday 2011 then?

Something like 4-5 million I guess. 8 million total for 2011.