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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

archbrix on 16 November 2010
Squilliam said:
archbrix said:

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 

While Kinect is selling wonderfully, with the standalone unit pretty much an instant sellout, bundled units were still available on Amazon and many retailers several days after launch.  The Wii on the other hand was an instant sellout for well over a year after launch.  Stores had units for no more than a few hours if they were lucky after new shipments arrived.  But I do expect Kinect will mirror that during the holidays.  To sustain that as long as Wii will simply depend on Microsoft's and third party's ingenuity with the device.



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gergroy on 17 November 2010
master69 said:

If the game is bundle with every kinect unit it shouldn't count as million seller. A limited bundle is acceptable, but not if is always bundle (IMO).

 

 


so, almost every game that has sold over 20 million shouldn't be counted?  



ramses01 on 17 November 2010
Nirvana_Nut85 said:
ramses01 said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

I think 10, maybe 12 would be a realistic figure if it catches on, but 20 million is definately a pipe dream


Dude, it is going to hit 10 million by this time next year.  Probably 12-15 million by the end of 2011 with a long shot at 20 million depending on the kinect 360 bundle to non-bundled ratio.

Yah, maybe with bundled systems it could do it, but I definately dont see the stand alone version movng more than 12 mil LTD


Nobody is talking about the stand alone.  12 to 15 million is a good ceiling for the stand alone, but you can probably add another 5-6 million PER year in bundles.



SnesTea on 17 November 2010
Seece said:
4k1x3r said:
psrock said:
Mr.Metralha said:
psrock said:
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

I  actually agree with you. It's bundle folks, as long as Kinect sells, this game will get there easily.

It's the opposite. As long as the game sells, kinect will get there easily.


I'm sure people buy Kinect to get the hands on kinect adventures.

Eye toy had 100M userbase, it sold less than 10M seece.

Eyetoy wasn't remotely the same caliber as Kinect, as will be seen when it ships over half of what the eyetoy did in what, 5 years? in 8 weeks.

They are both just still glorified sensor cameras.



Squilliam on 17 November 2010
phenom08 said:
Squilliam said:

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 

This has to be the second or third time I have seen you compare Apple to Nintendo, you clearly see Microsoft as a hardware selling company that isn't anywhere near as good as they are. Apple and Nintendo aren't comparable at all. Apple releases alot of new hardware every year and have more products than Nintendo which is why they sell more hardware and make more money. Nintendo can't release new hardware every year, they would alienate their existing userbase because the newer games wouldn't work on the older hardware which isn't a problem for Apple. I don't know if you knew this or not but Nintendo has sold more DSes and Wiis than Apple has sold Iphones. Also just because Apple can sell hardware like they do doesn't mean Microsoft can do the same, just ask the Zune. ; )

Is Microsoft a hardware selling company? No. They sell services and platform software and hardware to be honest like a cosmic middle man.

How aren't Apple and Nintendo comparable? They both sell machines in the media/entertainment segments of the consumer electronics industries. They both sell handhelds and they both compete in adascent and overlapping markets. But also Apple is the anti-Nintendo and the counter examples to common arguments surrounding Nintendo.

P.S. Apple sold 14M iPhones in a quarter IIRC.



Tease.

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Squilliam on 17 November 2010
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 

While Kinect is selling wonderfully, with the standalone unit pretty much an instant sellout, bundled units were still available on Amazon and many retailers several days after launch.  The Wii on the other hand was an instant sellout for well over a year after launch.  Stores had units for no more than a few hours if they were lucky after new shipments arrived.  But I do expect Kinect will mirror that during the holidays.  To sustain that as long as Wii will simply depend on Microsoft's and third party's ingenuity with the device.

The bundle sales will likely pick up as we close on Christmas. As the number of people wishing to buy consoles increases so too will the number wishing to buy Kinect bundles. Furthermore there needs to be more time for word of mouth to spread to the non gamer segments and for people to physically try out the interface.



Tease.

phenom08 on 17 November 2010

@ Squilliam

Guess what your wrong Microsoft does sell hardware, Zune and the Xbox are both hardware, that's just as much as Nintendo, Wii and DS. Microsoft also competes in the entertainment segment so what's your point. Apple revises their hardware every year, Nintendo does not and can not because of the market they are part of. Nintendo has to continue to come up with ways to sell their hardware to new consumers, Apple doesn't they can sell to the same 10 to 15 million people. You can compare them all you want the point is they both sell more hardware than Microsoft so what's your point. You have to reduce to comparing another company because your's isn't very good wow lol.



Squilliam on 17 November 2010

Is your behaviour fanboyish? Trollish? Stupidity? Ignorance? Anyway my point is that its not worth my time.



Tease.

archbrix on 17 November 2010
Squilliam said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:

You're making a similar argument to why the DS wouldn't sell.

DS won't sell because Sony are lord and masters and they have the uber powerful PSP which will leverage their massive 100M plus console userbase and leave little room for such a niche device.

Kinect won't sell because Nintendo are lord and masters and they have uber powerful brand and unique software so Microsoft doesn't have a hope in competing outside of a niche.

Releasing a half baked software/hardware device and then improving upon it hasn't stopped Apple from making even more profit than Nintendo nor sell more devices than Nintendo whilst showing even more growth than Nintendo. There is obvious room for improvement within the time-frame which will increase the value proposition or decrease the cost or both, even on a 12 month timescale.

To put things in perspective, Kinect is currently selling around as fast as the Wii when it originally launched if I read the articles correctly.

 

 

While Kinect is selling wonderfully, with the standalone unit pretty much an instant sellout, bundled units were still available on Amazon and many retailers several days after launch.  The Wii on the other hand was an instant sellout for well over a year after launch.  Stores had units for no more than a few hours if they were lucky after new shipments arrived.  But I do expect Kinect will mirror that during the holidays.  To sustain that as long as Wii will simply depend on Microsoft's and third party's ingenuity with the device.

The bundle sales will likely pick up as we close on Christmas. As the number of people wishing to buy consoles increases so too will the number wishing to buy Kinect bundles. Furthermore there needs to be more time for word of mouth to spread to the non gamer segments and for people to physically try out the interface.

Yes, Kinect bundles will undoubtedly pick up for the holidays... as I already mentioned in my previous post.

Also @bolded in your previous post:

Your comparison is not accurate pertaining to my point:  Nintendo were already "lord and masters" in the handheld market.  I was not suggesting that PSP being seemingly superior to DS at first glance was related to their then dominance in the console market, but rather that PSP has multiple obvious advantages when compared directly to DS.  And as I stated, software ingenuity wins out every time; something that Microsoft still needs to prove with Kinect for it to maintain its high sales in the long term.

If they do?  Terrific... I'll enjoy my new 360 and Kinect.



Squilliam on 18 November 2010
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:

The bundle sales will likely pick up as we close on Christmas. As the number of people wishing to buy consoles increases so too will the number wishing to buy Kinect bundles. Furthermore there needs to be more time for word of mouth to spread to the non gamer segments and for people to physically try out the interface.

Yes, Kinect bundles will undoubtedly pick up for the holidays... as I already mentioned in my previous post.

Also @bolded in your previous post:

Your comparison is not accurate pertaining to my point:  Nintendo were already "lord and masters" in the handheld market.  I was not suggesting that PSP being seemingly superior to DS at first glance was related to their then dominance in the console market, but rather that PSP has multiple obvious advantages when compared directly to DS.  And as I stated, software ingenuity wins out every time; something that Microsoft still needs to prove with Kinect for it to maintain its high sales in the long term.

If they do?  Terrific... I'll enjoy my new 360 and Kinect.

Software ingenuity doesn't win every time. It sure helps but at the same time it hasn't given Nintendo a free ride given they have lost a couple of hardware generations to a company which certainly lacks anything close to the same excellence in software production for gaming consoles. It is certainly a big factor but it also isn't the only factor involved. It also doesn't have to come directly from the manufacturer. In many cases the 3rd party software is good enough to drive the sales of a platform.



Tease.