If I'm deslusional or short sighted for my views, then I am proud to be so.

Carry on.

I really don't understand people that are making a comparison between Kinect and Eye Toy because it's so flawed in my opinion.  It would be like someone a few years ago making a comparison between the PS3 and Sega Saturn being hard for developers to work with and declaring the PS3 doomed to failure because of it.  Even back then the differences in the situations between the two were pretty obvious and significant (Sony could withstand billions in losses and has very good third-party support).

The same applies between Kinect and Eye Toy.  The amount of money that Microsoft is putting behind Kinect alone pretty much makes the situations completely different (I doubt the Eye Toy and all its games combined would come close to a half billion dollars spent on advertising).  Was the Eye Toy ever on Oprah or Ellen or on morning and late night talk shows?  That along with all the other attention Kinect is getting dwarfs anything the Eye Toy ever got.  Then there's the fact that Microsoft is working hard for third-party games that require a Kinect.  Compare that to the Eye Toy in North America for example only getting 3 third party games in 4 years that actually required it.

Anyways I just wanted to add my opinion but I'm sure there are people that will still ignore all that or attempt to explain it away with logic like advertising, attention, and word of mouth doesn't translate into sales or compare it to a game and claim its sales will be front loaded.  Kinect is hardware so why not treat as such?  Did the PS3/360/Wii sell the majority of their units in the first 2 months they were on sale?  Do controllers sell the majority of their units in their first 2 months?  So does it really make sense to you when you see people compare it to a single video game rather than hardware?

I neeed to keep retracking and think, "am I looking at this wrong" but no, I'm not, and everything you said is 100% correct. People are being incredibly close minded about Kinect potential, thinking it's going to sell 5 mill this holiday then drop off like a rock with no proof. I have to laugh at this "move sales will beat Kinect in the long run". Why? Because they say so. Is all they have.

Also I have to touch on Kinect being a higher calibre than eyetoy again, Kinect and it's games today, are FAR far more impressive than eyetoy at launch and its games.

Yes, thats what happens when something is releasing more than 5 years into the future, its going to be more technologically advanced. The problem with using this comparison is that it doesn't justify the reason Kinect will sell more. Its all about how relevant the technology is to the period its being sold in. Thats like saying if they updated Kinect every year with more powerful hardware that it would ALWAYS increase in sales year over year. 

Analogy: Corvettes today are much more advanced than Corvettes of yesterday, but they sure as hell don't sell more. 

The reason Kinect will sell more is because we are currently in the 'Hardcore' generation. Gamers today have a MUCH deeper desire for gaming. Attach rates for software vs hardware, pre-order numbers, first week sales, etc.. are all much higher this generation even with much lower hardware numbers. MS/360 fans are going to buy Kinect because its the new peripheral for their favorite console. The fact we are smack dead in the middle of the 'Motion Gaming' movement is the reason its going to sell so well. If Kinect had released with 5 year old technology on the original xbox around the same time the eyetoy had released, it would've been a complete flop. There wasn't much of a rage for motion gaming in the previous generation.

That something required a significant amount of research and development and a lot of that is still ongoing. Its not like you can buy the parts for Kinect and put it together with a couple of million in software and call it a day.

When i read this...i loled...alot XD (i agree with this though)

The reason people think Kinect will drop like a rock is because there is no reason for us to think Kinect will have sustained sales otherwise. When the hype dies down, and it eventually will, nobody will rush out for Kinect. The games certainly aren't captivating the minds of gamers on a wide-scale, and I think Kinect will hit the "Wii effect" with casuals, where people get bored, and stop buying games for it. And considering this isn't a main console, this effect will hit it probably after the holiday.

People were saying that about the Wii, and it had it's best ever christmas last year (4th year too). Again, you didn't give a reason, just what people expect (and yourself), how do you know the hype will die down so soon?

that

The Wii as a console and as a concept is developed specifically to target this audience and has been from the start so this comparison between the Wii and Kinect is a lot more far fetched than Eyetoy - Kinect. The 360 launched and lived off of Racing games, Shooters, RPG's and stellar Live games for a few bucks, to expect this core product to suddenly become the casual favourite overnight because of a camera that costs nearly as much as a Wii bundle is plain silly.

Like I said in a previous post, if I'm short sighted, I'm pretty pleased about myself regardless.