An unstated premise on the article is that one of the two would be the likely number 1 console manufacturer for the next generation which is why they have to be included. However im not doing about the prisoners dillema just a variation of one. The exact details of the interaction are unknowable and so are the rules. I like it because it fits into the picture the idea that not only must Nintendo be toppled but another console manufacturer has to take its place. It still leaves multiple possibilities like for instance with this generation Sony was sabotaged by Microsoft but Nintendo went unopposed with their focused innovation. Also it leaves open the possibility of getting it right but for the wrong reasons. 

If that is the case then it is a very workable analogy. I admit I did the dart thing to emphasize blindness and the many things of which it's impossible to be aware.

Pardon me for being blunt here, but do you understand what a Blue Ocean Strategy is?  If not, get hold of the book on the subject.  There is NOT one Blue Ocean you go into and that is that, and you overfish it.  What you do is you find new markets or create new markespaces out of a mix of multiple markets, so you don't hit a commoditization mode, which is bloody.  If you happen to see major players employing it as a strategy, the industry grows, because they target different groups.  What you said is only one phase.  You can NEVER outfish a blue market, because it consists of going in new areas.

Nintendo is doing this.  Did you forget the 3DS?  That is a Blue Ocean move.  Did you even think that Nintendo would do a 3DS before it was announced?  By the time others move into there, they will be into another market.  Nintendo HAS already moved on and the videogame industry has grown as a result.

Whether or not Nintendo is the top money grosser next generation depends on if they target the right clustering of demographics better than others.  For all people know, Apple could come out and be the top dog next generation doing gaming differently.  Or, even Google.  One thing that is certain is that the top dog doesn't tend to stay on top forever.  People may of got duped by Sony going two generations on top in a dominant form.  Newcomers into videogames (usually the 20s demographics folks who grew up on Playstation) think it is the norm, but it isn't the case.

Hmm? how so, exactly?

The 3DS sounds like a very conventionallly positioned handheld. It has a nifty display tech and had very good press exactly because of it and of a very solid, but again very conventional, lineup. It impressed the specialized press and made a lot of old Nintendo fans happy with some fanservice, but which big untapped market is it going to rely on? It's aiming fair and square for the present market of DS and PSP, as far as I can tell.

Well stepping back it is a complex system. Economists are lazy, they would probably stick a graph with a few lines and call it a day. It deserves multiple different good analogies just for the fun of it!

Its a very complex interaction many which are unquantifiable with the data at hand and many others which we cannot set any value to their qualitative importance either. It is like throwing 300 species of animals into a virgin environment and then using the information on which species flourished to try to pre-determine how the same 300 species would fare relative to each other. Even in limiting the scope to just 3 species of interest in that mix is difficult enough. For instance the large reptile might eat the large mammal but the small mammal might eat the reptiles eggs.

Doubt it, we dont have information in any sense about it yet...

1. A)I'm not concerned with Sony and Microsoft fishing in the blue ocean.  They have only imitated what Nintendo has already done and aren't serious competition in that respect.  They are entering a saturated market of fitness games (Wiii Fit, WF , Your Shape, EA sports active), minigame compilations(Wii  Sports, WSR, Deca Sports, etc.) and party games.  

B) I am concerned that Nintendo hasn't created a blue ocean game that catches fire like the others.  Wii Party didn't pop off the way I was expecting.  Software size or hardware wise and that makes me wonder if they have any other titles designed around fun and easy and popular premises left though we have yet to see Wii Relax or Vitality Sensor project or whatever you wanna call it.

2.  If they can't ignite a fire with blue ocean titles then it is best that they start trying to capture both audiences.  Having good online is definitely a large draw to the Madden,  Cod, Halo, GTA crowd.  Social games like Farmville etc teach us that having novel ways of interacting with others who are playing in a different location is also a draw for more casual players as well so long as it's not too obtrusive.

3. Lest they get hardware that is comparable to what western 3rd parties are expecting for next gen it's not going to happen.  People will claim that 3DS support should  signify different but if that were the case the Wii would be seeing excellent 3rd party  titles as DS did get good support. Nintendo has always owned the Handheld market and support there means diddly squat for support of home console.

4. As I have some concerns as it seems most sequels in the Wii series have yet to outsell their predecessors.  Could just be time on the market we'll see.

5.  If NSMBW is any indication I don't see much wrong with giving people what they want.

Conclusion. Nintendo has a large fight ahead of it next generation.  It's competitors are trying to catch fish in the blue ocean craze although they have been largely unsuccessful so far.  I don't know if Wii owners will feel the need to update as sequels don't seem to sell quite as well which makes me wary of relying on them to purchase new hardware for sequels.   They have done fine without 3rd party support or Brilliant online.  But more than fighting their competitors over 3rd party titles Nintendo just needs to fight disinterest. But what is more popular that Sports, Fitness, Playing, Music and Partying that Nintendo can create an accessible  fun game around?  Will sequels be sufficient?  

I still see Nintendo as being number one next generation but only because Microsoft and Sony don't know how to develop hit blue ocean titles(and even if Sony did they sure as hell wouldn't know where or how to market them)  That may change given more time with their new more accessible control systems and get themselves out of those oversaturated genres they keep churning out.  

3D without glasses is Blue Ocean.  The untapped market is people who REFUSE to do 3D with glasses on.  Count me as one of these.  By clustering things as they are, they end up capturing a market no one else is in.  The key to Blue Ocean is to have no competition when you go into it, and get established.  It isn't that, after you have the entry, you go "Wow, I would of NEVER imagined that was possible, and people are there".  What Nintendo is looking to do is bring 3D movies to handhelds with the 3DS also.  Again, it is a marketspace currently being untapped and looks to be untapped for a few years.  Nintendo is likely able to do this also, because did ANYONE think Nintendo would go into this area?  They failed with Virtual Boy, so I am sure people thought Nintendo would not do 3D again.  I am likely seeing Sony wasn't even prepared for that.  When you think 3D normally, do you think need for glasses?  Well, I do.

My guess is they are going to leverage the utility of taking and sharing photos with the 3D camera. It would also be the first consumer grade 3D camera to hit the market IIRC. I wouldn't be surprised if the followup 3DS revision included a significantly better camera if this feature is popular. The 3D camera would mean theres another reason for people to take it out of the house and for some it may be all they want for simple point and shoot action.

Uhm, that's a pretty elastic definition of "blue ocean" you got there. You might as well say something like that of every tech innovation that goes mainstream: it offers something that was not offered before. By the same logic Kinect will tap in the "blue ocean" of those people who wanted dancing games tracking their legs.

While such people exist, I highly doubt that such a market is big enough, or disconnected enough from known and tapped ones, to be considered "expanding the market by tapping a blue ocean".

Same for the 3DS, really. Nintendo did not invent the 3d display tech it's using, it - as reported by first-hand testers - doesn't work particularly well for 3d movies at that size and 3DS is unlikely to become the portable 3d movie player of choice, because for several years to come 3d movies will come mainly on optical discs. And as soon as costs go down for autostereoscopical displays in the 7-10" ranges the usual suspects will bring out portable 3d blu-ray/memory card players to replace nowadays' portable DVD players.

Again, as a game console, it aims at the same market as DS and PSP.