Next-Gen: Nintendo Not #1

[Khuutra]

Squilliam said:

Khuutra said:

...Yeah, I do want to be a writer.

I think your analogy is too complicated; Killana1a isn't actually predicting anything concernign Sony and Microsoft, just whether or not Nintendo will be in first place. Even knowing everything that Microsoft and Sony will do oesn't guarantee success, of course.

More, your scenario presents binary outcomes: either each prisoner goes to the constable and betrays you, or not. Sony and Microsoft might do a jillion things. The prisoner's dilemma only really works if you include the possibility of the getting up, throttling the constable, blowing out the side of the prison with a small bomb, and fleeing into the night to wreck havoc.

An unstated premise on the article is that one of the two would be the likely number 1 console manufacturer for the next generation which is why they have to be included. However im not doing about the prisoners dillema just a variation of one. The exact details of the interaction are unknowable and so are the rules. I like it because it fits into the picture the idea that not only must Nintendo be toppled but another console manufacturer has to take its place. It still leaves multiple possibilities like for instance with this generation Sony was sabotaged by Microsoft but Nintendo went unopposed with their focused innovation. Also it leaves open the possibility of getting it right but for the wrong reasons.

If that is the case then it is a very workable analogy. I admit I did the dart thing to emphasize blindness and the many things of which it's impossible to be aware.