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Forums - Sales Discussion - Aaron Greenburg "LOL's" at VGChartz KINECT Sales Report on his Twitter!!!

Grimes said:

To all the people that complain about the numbers. Would you rather have nothing? Becaause none of these companies want the data out there unless they are winning. You would be at the mercy of their marketing departments who are experts at statistics manipulation and deceptive statements.

Apparently such sources of information as VGC drawing attention of reps not without a reason. Free and uncontrollable information harm their business, regardless of how accurate it exactly, or how good or bad it makes them look, it's still uncontrollable. Tendencies to manipulate investors and public opinion regarding videogame business (like Mr.Pachter) have strengthened after recent NPD statement, which have a few conspiracy theories behind it btw. So I'll only welcome any new source of information.



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To all those wondering how Greenburg can know how many Kinect units are sold:

Xbox 360: Hai

Xbox Live: Hai

Xbox Live: You are now connected. Have anything to report?

Xbox 360: Any updates that I need?

Xbox Live: Nah. All is up to date. Any user data to report?

Xbox 360: Yeah, just got a few more achievements for Fable 3 to report. Oh by the way I have Kinect connected also.

Xbox Live: Data recieved.



Tease.

Frieza said:
theprof00 said:
Frieza said:

your opinion.

Look at it this way:

VGC makes educated guesses. They aren't perfect, but they are very good. In fact, so good are they, that they are often more accurate than 90% of other trackers. VGC also does this for a very low cost, hell, a few months ago, they did it FOR FREE. Do you know how much NPD charges for their data, and do you know that they also use guesstimates and that perfect tracking is impossible due to small business?

Lemme put it in a way you might more understand. NPD is a ps3 at launch, and VGC is a wii at launch. Everyone mocks VGC... but really, VGC holds its own against the big boys.

 

Ehhh my opinion was that everyone mocks VGC....which they really do so its more of a fact.

Your opinion = "VGchartz just make up the numbers. Which to be fair most of the time they do."

kthxbye




Except they actually do which is the reason why people mock the site.

Dude do you think the site is a joke and if you do then leave. lol damn im a member of other sites but i use vgchartz the most because the community is great and i like sales numbers. But when i mention vgchartzs sales numbers to people they usually say oh their pretty good or they dont really know about the site yet. So you saying a large number of people mock the site is a joke to me.



I remember I think 2 NPDs ago VGC had the number of 360s sold with maybe a few hundreds difference from NPD numbers. I wonder how Greenberg would explain this happened "without source or science"?



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

Will be funny when November numbers roll around and VGC is off by 10 or 15%. Will love to see him eat crow.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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I am not going to delve into whose numbers are right argument of Microsoft's official shipment data vs. VGChartz estimates.

Looking at this: http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82684/initial-kinect-sales-revealed/

It is a sloppy piece of work, plain and simple. Not in the way the numbers were found, but in the way it was COMMUNICATED. I apologize for the caps, but caps get points across.

There is a paragraph followed by the numbers ended by a "Stay tuned..."

Where is the explanation paragraph from Brett Walton on how they arrived at these numbers. And don't site the "Methodologies" page because it is a weak argument. Let's go over the "sales estimates" on the methodology page:

All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:

  • Polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
  • Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
  • Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
  • Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
  • Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel

http://www.vgchartz.com/methodology.php

1. What end users are you polling and when and where?

2. Who are your retail partners for the Americas, Japan, and the EMEAA?

All very basic questions that the "Methodology" page does not answer, nor are they brought up in the article.

Kinect has just been released and if you are putting out the numbers before Microsoft then each reader, laymen on up to Greenberg, should know exactly each and every source of how you arrived at your estimates. Just linking the "Methodologies" page creates distrust between the reader and site because we all know VGChartz is not some massive corporation with an "Industry Relations Department" where they can get the initial sales data the first week in.

VGChartz is estimating and they need to be up front and honest IN THE ARTICLE when they put the numbers out. Otherwise, for all Greenberg knows, the numbers can be pulled out of your ass.

I don't mean to come off as a hater, but I am a hater of sloppy communication. Trust requires communication and this situation with the reaction from Greenberg conveys to layest of laymen that there is a lack of trust between VGChartz and Greenberg at the moment.



 Vgchartz is very accurate, wassup haters!!!



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

theprof00 said:
heruamon said:

I guess we will just have to wait and see what get's announce to us by M$ or NPD.  Methinks we might hear something sooner, rather than later on that front...time will tell.

I just want you to know, that as vgc members, we are constantly aware that numbers could be wrong.

I honestly expected MS to mention something the day after. We've seen MS reports the day after reach came out, and several other games, and the 360 slim.

Actually we didn't hear anything from MS concerning slim sales until a month after its launch , we only heard about a vague "200 million $ on the first day " number about Reach and we haven't heard anything about fable 3 sales even though it seems to be doing quite good.



Good to know that Greenburg reads Vgchartz. My guess is its too early for Microsoft to put out hard data so even if our figures are within 2% of Kinect's actual performance, he is doubting that numbers could be in more than the fact that the figures are valid or invalid.

Microsoft is the least transparent with its figures of the big three, never totalling software shipments, splits by region, no projections are ever issued, and all figures are American-centric at a time when Southern and Central Europe and Latin America are the fastest growing markets. I'd reckon if Kinect shipments were already over 1m, we'd have a press-release detailing that. Anything under 1m would look poor, given the massive Wii base, and even the 2.5m Move pieces shipped to the West since September. Given 5m is the goal by the end of 2010, and that there are roughly 9 weeks in the year for Kinect, they've likely only shipped 600,000-700,000 Kinect's for the period Brett is speaking of, and so any press release we do get won't be until next week.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

NYANKS said:
Carl2291 said:
heruamon said:

Do you really think wholesalers have no methods of tracking sales of product at retail, in general?

As for this specific case, one easy way would be restocking orders from retailers.  M$ knows how many were shipped, so if Retailers are clamoring for follow-on orders to be filled faster...that's probably a clue.  Every been to a best buy, and they could tell you which nearby stores had the item sold out at the store you're at...that might be a clue.

If MS had a tracking service then Greenberg wouldn't be quoting NPD numbers as fact every Month.

The fact that he's aware of us and felt the need to comment on such an "insignifcant site" says something.  He's watching, at least.

Exactly!  The whole industry is watching.

Even if MS complains about VGC's MS numbers, I wouldn't doubt that they're using VGC to get weekly estimates for Nintendo and Sony and everybody else.  Everybody in the industry does it.  VGChartz is pretty much the easiest way to keep your finger on the pulse of the whole console and handheld gaming markets, and anybody in the business of selling video games wants to know how games, genres, and platforms are selling.