I'd be vary of using this as evidence of any kind of trend, I think it's way too early to say things like that, like how amazon is never a credible source of overall sales. Let's wait and see how the sales for the Xbox turn out in the coming weeks.

Kinect is going to put up some imressive numbers, it is a  new and exciting product. But, as always fans expect way too much. This product was suppose to change this whole generation around which it won't. It was suppose to take back the casual market from Nintendo, it won't. Yes, it's going to sell espacially in the  UK where I think it will destroy everything in its path, but that too few places to scare Nintendo. And yes, it will outsell Move by a huge margin. But, in the end, it will be Wii, 360 or PS3 this holiday season.

It probably is way to early to tell.  But I do find it curious how with Kinect (and Move) there is a fair bit of evidence that the devices are selling more to existing base than new.  If this is the case it'll be amusing to see how it progresses because clearly both Sony and MS, in fact MS in particular, are hoping to see this sell to new demographics and drive increased hardware sales for the core console.

If they end up selling more as peripherals to the existing base then it's bound to shake up their plans for the rest of the gen.

But... it is very early to be calling this and, at least from my European point of view, we are still to far away from December 25th to know how either device is really going to drive console bundle purchasing.

I think the biggest hurdle for new 360 owners interested in Kinect is the price.  It's not cheap.  I'm sure there is a huge hardware bump but, still.  And let's not forget that the 360 has been selling crazy since E3 (where the new redesign was launched).  Savy people probably purchased the new model and waited for the device.  That way, they didn't have to pay so much at once.

It's a theory, anyway.

I mainly watch sports on TV and I have seen maybe 2 or 3 Kinect ads while I have seen more than 3 Call of Duty: Black Ops commercials in a single day. I don't know what's going on. We are fast approaching Black Friday and I just don't see any ads for Kinect. I wonder when they'll start this big advertisement campaign?

Whether something is sold out or not says little unless we know how many units are shipped in each circumstance.

We only shipped 10 Kinects with game packages.  SOLD OUT!

We shipped 5 million Kinect 360 bundles.  Not sold out, but we sold 4.8 million of them.

Obviously I am exaggerating to make my point, but it depends greatly on what kind of numbers and distribution we are talking about here if you're going to gauge by "Sold Out" signs.

The only fact that we know, is that Microsoft has not yet said that Kinect launch was bigger then the Ipad.

I have some concrete anecdotal evidence, but it ruffled some feathers.  Is it safe for me to share them on this site? 

They are surely not sold out for rip off prices on Amazon and E-bay. The numbers showing up on E-bay is growing every day.

The flaw in your argument is you don't know what the ratio of stand alones to bundles is.  It could be MS sent plenty of bundles and didn't send enough stand alones.