It probably is way to early to tell. But I do find it curious how with Kinect (and Move) there is a fair bit of evidence that the devices are selling more to existing base than new. If this is the case it'll be amusing to see how it progresses because clearly both Sony and MS, in fact MS in particular, are hoping to see this sell to new demographics and drive increased hardware sales for the core console.
If they end up selling more as peripherals to the existing base then it's bound to shake up their plans for the rest of the gen.
But... it is very early to be calling this and, at least from my European point of view, we are still to far away from December 25th to know how either device is really going to drive console bundle purchasing.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
