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Forums - Sales - Predict Oct-Dev 2010 Console Shipments

Now that the quarterly reporting is done and all the uproar has subsided. How about we predict the last 3 months of the year shipments.

Last Year:
360 5.2Million
PS3 6.5Million
Wii 11.3Million

2008
360 6.0Million
PS3 4.5Million
Wii 10.4Million

My thoughts:

With the launch of Move during this past Qtr Sony was able to ship extra consoles with the addition of a new SKU and expected boost of new motion controlled sales.  With that in mind I believe that PS3 shipments will fall about halfway between where they were in 2009 and 2008.  So look at PS3 shipments of about 5.5M.

With highly hyped Kinect launch in November which includes 2 bundle SKUs (4G and 250G) and the Holiday Bundle for the 250G the 360 should see a sizeable jump in shipments compared to the  last Qtr.  Last Qtr saw the release of the Halo Reach Bundle which added a few 100 thousand to the shipments, but also saw initial release of new S Skus in a staggered release while older models were cleared out.  I see 360 shipments in the 7M range.

Wii sales and excitement have dropped considerably from the past 2 years. Wii sales in 2010 compared to 2009 in October will fall about 1M.  I am expecting this Qtr shipments to fall to about 8M range.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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PS3 6M

360 6.5M

Wii 9M



Atto Suggests...:

Book - Malazan Book of the Fallen series 

Game - Metro Last Light

TV - Deadwood

Music - Forest Swords 

My prediction:

X360- 6,2-6,5M - shipments will be larger due to new SKUs and kinect bundles

Sony - 6,5-7M -  i predict massive holiday sales if GT5 is released in next few weeks if GT5 doesn't release before half of december they will probably stay in 6-6,2M range

Wii - 6,5-7M - i fully expect to see worst Holidays ever for Nintendo console due to lack of new big games and Microsoft stealing attention with massive kinect campaign as well as saturation of $200 price point.



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB

I am going to restate the op shipment prediction.

 

PS3 = 5.5 M    ( since they overship in previous quater)

360 = 7M        ( since MS forgot to ship, thus only 900k left)

Wii = 8M         ( they got tired of shipping)

 

My predictions are such

6 MILLION ( MS, SONY)

9 MILLION ( WII)



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

X360 - 7 million: Kinect will be big as with so huge marketing campaign you really can't fail. X360 will post big numbers in USA and UK and should to reasonable well in continental Europe too.

PS3 - 6 million: Sales will fall in USA and Japan compared to last holidays but if GT5 comes this year it should give good boost to sales in Europe. Also Move seems to be reasonable hit in continental Europe so PS3 will ride these holidays with Europe. Sony probably also continues to conquer developing markets so it has edge there compared to MS and Nintendo.

Wii - 8 million: Although Wii is now doing pretty badly compared to other two I still think it will have biggest quarter. Every year Nintendo's platforms see most boost when we come to the holidays so i don't see why that would change. Also when it comes to games that actually use motion controlls wisely and still are deep Wii has huge edge compared to Kinect and Move.



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psrock said:

I am going to restate the op shipment prediction.

 

PS3 = 5.5 M    ( since they overship in previous quater)

360 = 7M        ( since MS forgot to ship, thus only 900k left)

Wii = 8M         ( they got tired of shipping)

 

My predictions are such

6 MILLION ( MS, SONY)

9 MILLION ( WII

I know your first part is sarcasm (yeah what happened to you?)

But it's logical Sony were shipping xmas stock earlier than MS last Q due to Move bundles being available and Kinect bundles ... not. So no over or under shipping BS please, it's just [rep for xmas.



 

Seece said:
psrock said:

I am going to restate the op shipment prediction.

 

PS3 = 5.5 M    ( since they overship in previous quater)

360 = 7M        ( since MS forgot to ship, thus only 900k left)

Wii = 8M         ( they got tired of shipping)

 

I know your first part is sarcasm (yeah what happened to you?)

But it's logical Sony were shipping xmas stock earlier than MS last Q due to Move bundles being available and Kinect bundles ... not. So no over or under shipping BS please, it's just [rep for xmas.

it's only logical for MS to undership since they were saving the console for the demand of Kinect, I expect low stock for the stand alone kinect and huge amount of the console bundle.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

Im going to predict:

 PS3 - 6.8 to 7.2 million -- SONY believes they are still on track for there 15 million target for the fiscal year. So far they have shipped 5.9million this fiscal year and i doubt SONY will be able to do much more than 2.4million in there 4th quarter ( therefore they need to ship at least 6.7, probably more this holiday quarter)

 360  - 6.0 - 6.5 million -- The 360 will do well but will suffer from low Japan/ Asia sales and from competition in Europe from PS3.

Wii - 10 million --  Nintendo is aiming for 17.5 million this fiscal year, but the Wii has really become a "seasonal" console. Therefore i think 10 million shipped will probably be about right. Besides retailers won't mind having a few extra Wii's in stock as the know the console will sell eventually and there will be no price cut unless the 3DS launch is delayed in the west.



ps3 7 million

xbox 7 million

wii 9 million



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

wii: 9,5

Ps3: 6,5

360, 5,8