Its a bold claim. And unlikely. But to all who dismiss it so fast. Its entirely possible.

I count with a Wii successor in 2012. And I can see Wii selling "just" about 100 Million Units.

Also it could be that if Kinect fails to be what MS expects then we can see a 360 successor sooner. And the PS3 could take the PS2 position and sell for 99-129 Dollar for years. And in the end it could even outsell Wii. But ofcourse everything has to be perfect for the PS3 from now on.

I expect WIIs marketshare to drop to 45% this year. I have trouble imagening Wii outselling 360 and PS3 combined over the holidays. And 2012 it could stop almost entirely when the successor is on the market.

Less likely is that the 360 wont eat massively into PS3 sales over the years. 

Actually I can imagine Wii ultimatly finishing 3rd after 3-4 years additional time for PS3 and 360. 

Let's say PS3 needs to sell 115-120m in it's entire lifetime to be a sure winner. That's almost triple the amount of units sold so far! Do you really think that almost 2/3 will be sold during the remaining years?

If it were the PS2 then it could happen but it isn't. The PS2 had a huge library of exclusives and to be able to play a huge chunk of last gen's gems you had to have a PS2. The situation isn't the same this gen and that will keep the PS3 from getting those sales. In fact, that is what hinders all of the home consoles from reaching a dominant position.

But they won't get that time. Much like jarrod believes, i too imagine that a new console from Nintendo will force Sony and Microsoft to jump. This "long generation" is just smoke and mirrors, and ignores market realities, as well has hard lessons learned by both Sony and Microsoft that if you let the competition have their way with the market, you enter into an incredibly adverse environment. Like the Xbox, which despite being closer to PS2 in terms of features and 3rd party support, was only one tiny push away from the neglected and featureless GameCube, and that was strictly because of PS2 momentum afforded from an extra year on the market, or how it took the PS3 two whole years after launch to finally achieve third party parity, because Microsoft got developers on board so quick.

I imagine they're both scared of a new Nintendo console, because if Nintendo could actually get third party support for whatever crazy scheme they come up with next round, it'll be all the more difficult for Microsoft and Sony to play catch-up

Eh, that $50 drop had a pretty big effect in some markets (Japan notably, where Wii was doing near ~30k weekly for Oct...).  It really compounded into key software launches (Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii) plus the holiday season, which is what led to the enormous calendar Q4 rise, it was multiple factors for a joint push.  Without a price drop and comparable games this year, it's not looking like Wii can manage the same leap though, but that's okay... it's generational decline is mirroring PS2 almost exactly in the US market for example, it'd be more surprising if Wii was up for it's 5th year globally.

As far as YOY, Wii's still up in some markets for the year (again Japan), but then it's down pretty hard for Q4 so far.  But then, PS3's also down YOY for Q4, and that doesn't look to be changing either.

It won't finish in first, but it will finish in second. By 2012, I'm thinking around 75m. Wii will be over 100m and the 360 will be just behind the PS3. I'm thinking the PS4 will be out in 2012, so the PS3 should finish around 90m I think. Not bad for a "doomed" console I say.

not going to happen, nintendo isn't going to sit around doing nothing *even if they did the ps3 still might not be able to catch up lol

Finally somoeone that has actually thought this through.

if the ps3 continues to grow as it is and has the same legs as the ps2 then it could be posible. not very likly but non the less it isnt a "never ever going to happen" like the psp beating the wii overall XD

no way i think its a little too late for that.... however i do think the ps3 will overtake the xbox360

yea rite this thread a complete joke