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Forums - Sales - PS3 vs PS2: PS3 is doing OK?

jarrod on 31 October 2010

lol.  If anything, a direct comparison to PS2 works against the "PS3 is okay" notion.  Seriously, if anything you should use PS1 here (a comparison that itself gets worse by the year, but still looks semi-favorable as of now).



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FinalEvangelion on 31 October 2010

PS2 - No.  That's 90% not going to happen.

The PS1, however, is possible.  The way the sales are steadily increasing means the sales will steadily decrease down the adoption curve by general marketing adoption curve theory.  Actually, the Wii is showing this to be pretty true - very fast acceleration and now it looks like it's deceleration is really fast as well.  We'll need a few more quarters to be sure on the Wii, though. 

http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/diffusion/

You can read about it here.  I'm thinking the PS3 is around half way through the curve.

So think we will see the highest sales of PS3 at $250 or $200.  The PS3 is looking sure to meet it's market projections  of 15 million this year.  At it's peak, I can see a 18m year, and then the sales levels will start to slowly decline.  The PS3 has the most current tech from all the consoles that correlates really well with HDTV / Blu-ray adoption.  That's another reason we're seeing such good sales on PS3 lately.



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AnthonyW86 on 31 October 2010

Nice to see some discussion going on. I know PS1 would be a better comparison but i don't have numbers for that and besides the idea here isn't the PS3 outselling the PS2. It was more of a comparison with PS2 numbers to try and see what we might expect from the PS3 in the future, considering it's higher price point and the fact that it's also at the least going to have a 10 year lifespan.

It is a shame to see some ''no way'' comments however, without these stating how they do expect the PS3 to perform in the future. So let me paint a scenario that i think is most likely to happen:

Looking at it's current PS3 YTD sales at 1.5 million higher than last year(when it did over 12 million in the total year), and with GT5 probably launching in December i think it's save to say that PS3 will be atleast at 45 million at the end of year(wich means 13 million for 2010). Then next year we are likely to see some sort of price cut, and with a healthy amount of exclusive titles coming up and better Move software support sales should increase even further next year. Looking at next 3 years in total(2011-2013) i think we should probably see 2 price cuts, with the price of the PS3 being at $199 in 2013 at the latest. Considering this i see it likely for the PS3 to sale atleast 40 million in those three years, maybe even more if a $199 price point gives it a big boost.

This means that the PS3 would be over 85 million at the end of 2013, 7 years in it's life cycle. It should then easily do 5 million a year after that, because the PS2 did over 10 million in it's 8th year. Also the PS2 is now in it's 10th(10 and a half in Japan) and will probably keep on selling for a few more years, meaning that PS3 could have an lyfe cycle of more than 10 years. This way passing the 100 million actually seem very likely to me.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 01 November 2010
postofficebuddy said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:

you make great post and i normaly agree with you, but its just not that i'm portant to me who wins this gamers war. the best news i've seen so fare is PSP2 which may not even be the way it looks, but i hope it is cause it looks cool; and the big PS3 news which still has me and many of my friends floord.

hey you can make a prediction and not care! i want PS3 to win this so called war, but do i care if they do no? the only thing that conserns me is that Sony comes back next gen better prepared cause regardless of wht happens i'll be happy with the end result cause i'm a Nintendo fan to.

i make predictions and go on about my long eventful (or less)day;but i do have a question for you?

i beleave end of 2011 sells will look like this

PS3 60-63m

360 56-60m

your thoughts and and how you see it please thanks.


60 million sounds about right for PS3. The best case scenario I can see for the end of this year is 47 million, although 46 is more realistic. And with at least a $50 cut in the works next year I can't see it being to far down on this year, although it could fall just short of 60 million. 360 is harder to predict. It will likely end this year around 49-50 million. Most likely 360 will be getting a price cut next year as well, but with it already at the $200 price point I don't think it will have nearly as dramatic of an impact as a PS3 price cut will have. I'd say it'll probably hit at the upper end of your prediction.

agreed. i'm seeing the 60m, but had to leave some room for margen of error



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