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Forums - Sales - I think I have found a legitimat reason for Sony's overstuffed ship numbers

rccsetzer said:

I have only one thing to say : buy a PS3 and be a much happier person! 


LOL. EPIC



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fallen said:

I and many other, including Vgchartz, have been questioning Sony's recent 3.5 number when Europe, Japan, and NPD sales from reputable sources simply dont support it.

 

Well, I found this post on another forum. Very enlightening. There doesnt seem to be any quote function in this boards software in new posts, which is utterly riduculous, so I cant quote it, but here

 

"Sony usually overstock before Christmas

Past two years:"

 

 

What that shows is that Sony historically ships much more relatively in calender quarter 3, than Q4, compared to 360.

I like how ONE QUARTER makes a TREND. And that Q3 was the PS3 Slim year.

What about Q3 2008? 200k seperates them both. How about forcasts for both companies? How about 360 Q4 shippments vs PS3? Or vice versa Q4 2009? Or the fact that the 360 shipped more in relations to what they were shipping (if the 173% and 148% is suppose to indicate increase in shippment).  Non of this shows anything.



FF_Fanatic said:
Michael-5 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Michael-5 said:

To be honest I'm still shocked at this massive sales adjustment, for a couple legitamate reasons.

1. Did Move really push that many consoles? Really? Move? Does that mean Kinect will do the same for 360? Really? Is motion gaming really that atttractive? Really? Seriously? A Wand with a glowing ball on the end and no good supporting games (except RE5).

2. This is a massive sales adjustment, and Sony has seen 3 sales adjustments in the last couple months. I'm sure the PS3 is outselling the 360, but did VGCharts honestly miss 1 million console sales? I understand some data is from smaller, more rural middle east and african regions, but Move has only sold 500 units, it's hard to beleive that it's responsible for a 60-100k weekly sales jump.

So I'm going to give it a couple weeks and wait for Kinect data to come in. If Kinect also posts ridiculous boosts in sales, then sadly, I guess this Move boost is real. If it doesn't, then I would question the reliability of this data.

I mean in January 2010 PS3 was ahead of 360 in EMEAA, then it didn't surpass the 360 in EMEAA for another 4 months, then recently 360 came within 45k of surpassing PS3 in EMEAA, and then now it's all of a sudden over 1 million sales behind?? Something is up, but PS3 probably did have a strong fall.

To be honest, I still don't see the PS3 meeting that 15 million fisical year goal. This data may be smudged by Sony to hold reputation (e.g. 15 million shipped, 12 million sold).

Some of you need to really understand that this isn't nursery school.....SONY can't just "SMUDGE" the data and get away with it.......its just not that simple really, it isn't a game....it would be a major crime to make such big lies about specific console sales to investors.

And lol the data being posted in this thread in form of charts and graphs is actually from the Nintendo press briefing.....the source for Nintendo's data is GFK the most trusted console sales/software tracker in Europe because it covers loads of retail stores in all EU countries....something VGC can't do (and its not VGC's fault either....its so difficult to track the EMEAA region).

Another thing is SONY can't just stuff the channel for 2 quarters in a row......retailers aren't puppets controlled by SONY....THEY WILL NOT take extra/excess PS3 stock 2 QUARTERS in a row....

Sony can overexagerate truths. For example, Sony may have shipped 3.5 million units early for the holiday rush, where MS and Nintendo may plan to ship their holiday consoles in October. Then a 3.5 versus 2.8 million consoles shipped makes the PS3 look amazing, when in reality MS and Nintendo are just one big shipment away.

Also one of these adjustments goes back 2 years to account for more difficult to track EMEAA regions. Where did this data come from? Nintendo has made several press breifings showing financial sales using GFK in the last 2 years, why did this data all of a sudden come in now? I'm sure this data was sourced outside the Nintendo breifing.

I'm not saying the data is wrong, I just wouldn't be surprised if it were re-adjusted by 10% or 15%.

And shipping 15 million units when their goal to sell 15 million (not ship) is a legitamate way to smudge data. They did technically sell 15 million consoles to retailers, so it's not lying..

My reasoning for being shocked is that a peripheral (a wand with a glowing ball, and in a couple weeks a 3D camera) boosted console sales as much as a console redesign? Really? Scares me what gaming will eventually become if this is whats selling well...


if that is true expect Sony to be in court real soon, you can't even over exaggerate your figures it's considered as fraud!!

the fact is you are too stuck on the fact that move is doing so well, and from reading your previous posts you think it's a wiimote with a glowing ball, you do realise that every single review does not agree with you, not to mention move is way more precise than wiimote and it has extra abilities than just true 1:1 3d control, move does what wiimote was meant to do and that is why people are loving it so much!!

Why would Sony be in court if they didn't lie? If you present the truth in such a way where people are gulable enough to think the console is doing better then it is, how is that Sony's fault? You don't get sued for telling the truth. Here look:

Demand for the PS3 is high, and we have shipped an astounding 3.5 million PS3's making this one of the strongest Q3's ever for the PS3!!!!

or

In preparation for the holiday season, we have managed to ship 3.5 million PS3's in order to stock up retailers.

Both say the same thing, Sony can't be sued for saying one over the other. This is not fraud, you should look up the definition of fraud.

Seriously, why are you haggling me on such a little thing? If my opinion isn't 100% unquestionably Sony's why do people always try to argue with me and change my opinion. I never see people insult me when my Nintendo or MS opinion isn't 100%, but for Sony people seem to love to jump on me. It's good not to take information unquestionably, you should give it a try sometime, most large VGChartz adjustments get re-adjusted slightly sometime down the road, and I'm only saying above DS sales is shocking, and I'd take it with a grain of salt.

As for Move, I think it's a gimmick, same with Kinect, and I can find tons of articles to support my opinion, so don't tell me every single review thinks otherwise. Also I don't think there are any good games for move, why get hardware when there is not good software? Sure VGChartz gave Sports Champions above 8/10, but I've seen multiple reviews for it getting 6/10. Also after that what is there? Time Crisis is gettin 5-6/10 on most websites I look at, Tumble looks cool, but $40 for what looks like a PSN game? This is my opinion, I'm not trying to get you to agree, I just think it's shocking that Move is pushing PS3's almost as well as a Price Cut and Slim redesign...

Anyway I'm not here to argue to quality of Move, I just don't see why Move would push more consoles then a good game (like Halo, God of War, or Super Mario Galaxy 2). Like why is Move pushing more consoles then Wii Fit? I would think most people interested in a PS3/360 would be interested in HD gaming, not HD Wii imitations...



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The unfortunate reality of all of this?

PS3 is allegedly selling better than what was believed in regions where widely accepted tracking services are not available.  So now we're stuck with shipped figures as being the most accurate figures out there, but they aren't reflective of install base.

Yeah, its times like this where I think about how much energy we spend on these numbers and decide to get off of the site and go play some games.  See ya.



This is getting sadder each passing day. But keep coming with these damn excuses.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
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Honestly Mike, at least some of the recent adjustments shouldn't have came as that big of a shock. I figured you would have picked up on the possibility that we were undertracking the PS3 in Latin America after I hinted at it here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3699000

Note how I said "according to VGC our Latin American install base is 650k-700k".

I basically knew that we HAD to have been undertracking the PS3 down there once I heard how much PES 2010 and GOW3 had sold. Do you really think an annual franchise could reach almost a 50% attach ratio?



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Michael-5 said:
FF_Fanatic said:
Michael-5 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Michael-5 said:

To be honest I'm still shocked at this massive sales adjustment, for a couple legitamate reasons.

1. Did Move really push that many consoles? Really? Move? Does that mean Kinect will do the same for 360? Really? Is motion gaming really that atttractive? Really? Seriously? A Wand with a glowing ball on the end and no good supporting games (except RE5).

2. This is a massive sales adjustment, and Sony has seen 3 sales adjustments in the last couple months. I'm sure the PS3 is outselling the 360, but did VGCharts honestly miss 1 million console sales? I understand some data is from smaller, more rural middle east and african regions, but Move has only sold 500 units, it's hard to beleive that it's responsible for a 60-100k weekly sales jump.

So I'm going to give it a couple weeks and wait for Kinect data to come in. If Kinect also posts ridiculous boosts in sales, then sadly, I guess this Move boost is real. If it doesn't, then I would question the reliability of this data.

I mean in January 2010 PS3 was ahead of 360 in EMEAA, then it didn't surpass the 360 in EMEAA for another 4 months, then recently 360 came within 45k of surpassing PS3 in EMEAA, and then now it's all of a sudden over 1 million sales behind?? Something is up, but PS3 probably did have a strong fall.

To be honest, I still don't see the PS3 meeting that 15 million fisical year goal. This data may be smudged by Sony to hold reputation (e.g. 15 million shipped, 12 million sold).

Some of you need to really understand that this isn't nursery school.....SONY can't just "SMUDGE" the data and get away with it.......its just not that simple really, it isn't a game....it would be a major crime to make such big lies about specific console sales to investors.

And lol the data being posted in this thread in form of charts and graphs is actually from the Nintendo press briefing.....the source for Nintendo's data is GFK the most trusted console sales/software tracker in Europe because it covers loads of retail stores in all EU countries....something VGC can't do (and its not VGC's fault either....its so difficult to track the EMEAA region).

Another thing is SONY can't just stuff the channel for 2 quarters in a row......retailers aren't puppets controlled by SONY....THEY WILL NOT take extra/excess PS3 stock 2 QUARTERS in a row....

Sony can overexagerate truths. For example, Sony may have shipped 3.5 million units early for the holiday rush, where MS and Nintendo may plan to ship their holiday consoles in October. Then a 3.5 versus 2.8 million consoles shipped makes the PS3 look amazing, when in reality MS and Nintendo are just one big shipment away.

Also one of these adjustments goes back 2 years to account for more difficult to track EMEAA regions. Where did this data come from? Nintendo has made several press breifings showing financial sales using GFK in the last 2 years, why did this data all of a sudden come in now? I'm sure this data was sourced outside the Nintendo breifing.

I'm not saying the data is wrong, I just wouldn't be surprised if it were re-adjusted by 10% or 15%.

And shipping 15 million units when their goal to sell 15 million (not ship) is a legitamate way to smudge data. They did technically sell 15 million consoles to retailers, so it's not lying..

My reasoning for being shocked is that a peripheral (a wand with a glowing ball, and in a couple weeks a 3D camera) boosted console sales as much as a console redesign? Really? Scares me what gaming will eventually become if this is whats selling well...


if that is true expect Sony to be in court real soon, you can't even over exaggerate your figures it's considered as fraud!!

the fact is you are too stuck on the fact that move is doing so well, and from reading your previous posts you think it's a wiimote with a glowing ball, you do realise that every single review does not agree with you, not to mention move is way more precise than wiimote and it has extra abilities than just true 1:1 3d control, move does what wiimote was meant to do and that is why people are loving it so much!!

Why would Sony be in court if they didn't lie? If you present the truth in such a way where people are gulable enough to think the console is doing better then it is, how is that Sony's fault? You don't get sued for telling the truth. Here look:

Demand for the PS3 is high, and we have shipped an astounding 3.5 million PS3's making this one of the strongest Q3's ever for the PS3!!!!

or

In preparation for the holiday season, we have managed to ship 3.5 million PS3's in order to stock up retailers.

Both say the same thing, Sony can't be sued for saying one over the other. This is not fraud, you should look up the definition of fraud.

Seriously, why are you haggling me on such a little thing? If my opinion isn't 100% unquestionably Sony's why do people always try to argue with me and change my opinion. I never see people insult me when my Nintendo or MS opinion isn't 100%, but for Sony people seem to love to jump on me. It's good not to take information unquestionably, you should give it a try sometime, most large VGChartz adjustments get re-adjusted slightly sometime down the road, and I'm only saying above DS sales is shocking, and I'd take it with a grain of salt.

As for Move, I think it's a gimmick, same with Kinect, and I can find tons of articles to support my opinion, so don't tell me every single review thinks otherwise. Also I don't think there are any good games for move, why get hardware when there is not good software? Sure VGChartz gave Sports Champions above 8/10, but I've seen multiple reviews for it getting 6/10. Also after that what is there? Time Crisis is gettin 5-6/10 on most websites I look at, Tumble looks cool, but $40 for what looks like a PSN game? This is my opinion, I'm not trying to get you to agree, I just think it's shocking that Move is pushing PS3's almost as well as a Price Cut and Slim redesign...

Anyway I'm not here to argue to quality of Move, I just don't see why Move would push more consoles then a good game (like Halo, God of War, or Super Mario Galaxy 2). Like why is Move pushing more consoles then Wii Fit? I would think most people interested in a PS3/360 would be interested in HD gaming, not HD Wii imitations...

If you're argument is: "Move sucks, why should it give the ps3 a huge boost" then i'm going to have to say that your opinion isn't fact. Point is, Move works and people are buying it, whether or not you like it is your own opinion. These data and adjustments ONLY tells us that the MOVE is a product that WORKS and consumers are noticing it, but its quality is something that is judged by people like you and me. anyway, i'm sure kinect will do better but hey i won't sound so butthurt when we finally get the sales data for it. 



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Michael-5 said:

 Tumble looks cool, but $40 for what looks like a PSN game?

Tumble is a PSN game and it costs $10



You know, I am sure that because of the TS's reason, Sony probably overshipped PS2 by over 50 million because of Christmas. But still taking that into account, Sony will have sold near to 100 million PS2.

But never mind, now I have found out this interesting fact. Listen. Sony has actually, GASP, been buying back the consoles to inflate the figures. In fact they bought 50 million of their own PS2. Thats how they win the game. Either that or they force a gun down retailers to order PS2 in huge numbers.

With some common sense, humility and for a fact, PS3 has been shipping more than X365 on a yearly basis ever since they launched.

In fact, Microsoft probably inflated the one year head start figure to make it sound like they had a head lead of 5.5 million over PS3. I am sure that figure is more like 550k only.



postofficebuddy said:

Honestly Mike, at least some of the recent adjustments shouldn't have came as that big of a shock. I figured you would have picked up on the possibility that we were undertracking the PS3 in Latin America after I hinted at it here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3699000

Note how I said "according to VGC our Latin American install base is 650k-700k".

I basically knew that we HAD to have been undertracking the PS3 down there once I heard how much PES 2010 and GOW3 had sold. Do you really think an annual franchise could reach almost a 50% attach ratio?

Most of PS3's adjustments are for EMEAA, not Americas. However this isn't what shocked me, what surprised me is that Move is pushing almost as many consoles as the PS3 Slim redesign and price cut. It's just, it's a Wii imitation wand, how the heck is that pushing consoles?

I just figured most people interested in HD consoles were interested in it for games, or maybe blu-ray. If you want motion gaming, get a Wii. If you want Motion gaming, and HD gaming, get a Wii and a 360 arcade, or just pay the $100 extra for a PS3/360 Elite and get a Wii as well.

I expected Move to boost console sales, but I for sure thought Halo would offset that and still have MS in the lead... thats all, and PS3 above DS? I'm skeptical.



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