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Forums - Sony - Has the Playstation Move's apparent success made people go crazy?

Reasonable on 24 October 2010
billsalias said:
Reasonable said:
billsalias said:

 

The fundamental problem is Sony did not release detailed information so we are all left to speculate on what the situation is. In this case both sides are showing their bias and taking the best and worst case scenarios respectively.

 

Currently we know is Sony has shipped 2.5 million of "Move", that is all. They did not give us detailed information of what those units were and they did not give a breakdown of the ratio of sales.

 

There is talk of shortages, but there are no details. I think universally no one is saying there is a shortage of starter packs but I think any reasonable person will agree the wands are not well supplied. (Anecdotal 

 

These two bits of information can be interpreted in so many ways that it is absurd for anyone on either side to claim anything as "fact". As an example here are two scenarios that are both supported by the above what I consider objective information.

 

Sony Bias

Sony shipped 750k started packs, 100k navigators and 1.65 million wands. 1 million PS-Eye owners bought 1 or 2 move controller and 600k starter packs sold with some of those people buying a second wand as well. The navigators are irrelevant. This results in 1.6 million unique move users. The 150k starter packs out there are enough for it to seem in supply but just barely and the wands are essentially sold out. Who cares about navs.

 

Anti Sony Bias

Sony shipped 1.7 million starter packs, 400k wands, and 400k navs. Only 100k starter packs sold and there are pallets of them sitting in warehouses waiting to be discounted because they can't be unloaded. 100k PS-Eye owners bought a wand and nav and each of the 100k starter pack buyers bought three of each, so yes all 400k sold out but there is only a user base of 200k.

 

With the information we have both viewpoints are equally valid. Personally I think both are equally unlikely. As usual the reality is some place in the middle with the scenario probably that Sony guessed wrong at the starter pack to wand ratio and the production they are ramping up is on stand along wands and they have plenty of starter packs available.

 

The lack of detailed sales information coming out of Sony backs up my "some place in the middle" scenario.  If news was as good as the Sony fans say they would be giving a lot more details, if it was as bad as the Sony haters say then they would not have said anything about numbers and stuck to their slow burn comments.


That is indeed the problem.  Ioi's calculations here are based on guesstimates and of course assuming different ratios can result in wildly different scenarios.

As I've stated in other threads I think that the likely position is indeed "somewhere in the middle" as you put it.

Move standalone Wands for example is definately the main element they are struggling to keep in stock.  Starter bundles seem to be in decent demand but are clearly in an okay stock position in most retailers.

Initial SW sales for new Move titles has been okay but not spectacular by any means.

Older titles with patches have seen small boosts, and of course existing owners of EyePet, Heavy Rain, etc. have surely been behind some of the demand.  EyePet owners in particular only face the purchase of a single Wand to get going, a very low cost of entry level to Move.

I think is Sony says 2.5 million shipped then that is likely pretty true.  Sell through though could be anything from 10% to 80% depending upon how you want to play the assumptions.

I reckon it's around 60 to 65% myself with a very fractured purchase base at launch, with some Eyepet owners just getting a Wand, some Heavy Rain owners getting a bundle, some people getting a bundle and trying out the demos, some getting a bundle plus SC, some getting Start the Party, etc.

I'd estimate maybe 600K to 900K install base depending, again, upon how you split the percentages.  I'd say a fair number of Move owners probably bought 2 or more items - for example I had Eyepet (and camera) and ended up buying 2 Move wands and a navi - that's 3 distinct purchases from a retail sales perspective.

Unless Sony decide to really come clean with the launch ratio of bundles to wands to navis, the sales of each (so far as they can infer from retail) then we really are just guessing with a very broad spectrum of possibilities.

At least Kinect should be easier to judge at launch: no existing games base, 1 unit per 360 in principle and nothing but new SW titles to judge from.

Yay, a reasonable (pun intended) poster.

I totally agree, but I think to hit the 900k mark there would need to be a very high existing ps-eye owner adoption rate. Though as you said that only requires a single wand purchase so minimal investment. And now that I think about it people that bought a ps-eye are probably likely to try move since they have shown there interest in alternate input methods already in buying the ps-eye.

I wonder if they will break it out in financial reports, doubtful I guess.


Exactly what I think.  If you bothered to buy an EyeToy and are still actively playing on PS3 why wouldn't you dabble with Move?  It's only a single Move Wand purchase to try it out.  Also, as you say, people who bought the Eye would likely be inclined towards something like the Move.

I'd love to know the EyeToy install base at the time of Move launch as I'm sure it could help with estimating demand from scratch - i.e. buying the starter bundle - vs incremental investment based on an existing purchase.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

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richardhutnik on 24 October 2010
greenmedic88 said:
richardhutnik said:

Getting actual sales numbers related to Move might end up be like trying to nail jello to the wall.  Sony wants Move to counter the Wii and get more PS3 sales.  Anything else than that isn't important.  They will talk shipped.  If Sony is embedding Move as a controller option in their top titles, and the bulk of what they are doing is like this, you do have a hard time getting a read on how Move impacts game sales.  And if people buy more than one controller per Move base system, then it is hard to read how many have been moved.  Also, the PS3 camera can be upgraded to be a Move system, so that is another bit of confusion.

In short, we may never know for sure.  However, isn't what matters is that Move adds a new enjoyable experience that is meaningfully significant for PS3 owners?

If controllers keep selling at current rates, even with the fairly mediocre initial catalog then PS3 owners are finding reasons for buying new sets of controllers.

Whether that's for Move patched/enhanced games like HR, RE5 or MAG, or future Move optional games like KZ3 or SOCOM or Move exclusive titles is sort of irrelevant. Statements claiming Move sales only "count" if those controllers are used to sell Move exclusive/required titles are kind of ridiculous and basically ignore dual control scheme support.

If the controllers continue to sell well and soft support stays consistent, I'm not sure where any imagined shortcomings might be coming from. Obviously not for everyone, but even now, there seems to be enough PS3 owners who are at the very least, curious enough to plunk down $50-100 or more on Move.

For Sony, Move is supposed to cause people to graduate from the Wii to a PS3 with Move.  The future will be governed by how PS3 sales hold up against the Wii.   For developers, however, knowing how large the base of Move owners is, is important for deciding whether to do games based around iut.



evolution_1ne on 24 October 2010
IMU1808 said:
evolution_1ne said:
IMU1808 said:
Seece said:
kowenicki said:

I dont think either Sony or MS are making a peripheral for the sake of selling a peripheral.

MOVE and Kinect will only be a success if they drive significant, prolonged extra console sales and software sales as far as I and I'd bet SONY/MS are concerned.

 

 

 

It's quite evident this is an afterthought from Sony, and until recently showed zero passion for Move. I think they care about it as much as Microsoft did HD DVD, they're behind it, but they won't cry a river if it fails ..


I'm pretty sure MS' HD-DVD add-on didn't take up more than 60% of one of their E3 conferences and had strong showings at pretty much all of their conferences like SONY's Move in recent conferences in the past year or 2...

EDIT: Not to mention just look at the bulk of SONY games release this half of the year. Compare the number of Move titles to standard retail SONY releases...

move got 2 stage demos and a montage at E3, 60%?? what conference where you watching?...... Microsoft's

and as for release date it's looks more lop sided due to key delays and it's the launch of the device of course there will be a bunch of games.

move is nothing more than a  peripheral in Sony's eye's I'm mean here in the US it got little to no advertising 

kinect on the other hand is a complete re-branding.


Not sure what you were watching but but from what I remember SONY never went 10 minutes without at least talking about move.

either you are mistaking sony's gdc conference with thier E3 or you only watched the move section of the conference and missed the other hour and a half focused on other things



Darth Tigris on 24 October 2010
Seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
psrock said:

But but it not going to sell

" Sony Shipped over 2.5 million without japan"

That means it overshipped

" Analyst think Move is selling better than he once believed"

But success depends on software

 

waiting for more excuses.......

The only way it will be fair is if the same folks claiming "shipped vs sold" do the same for Kinect. Guess we'll know soon enough.

Of course they will, simply because it's sales arnt so ambiguous. Whatever Kinect Adventures sells, is what Kinect has sold, shipped or not.

Quite true.

I think the big problem that keeps getting dodged by many is how IMPOSSIBLE it will be to properly  track a Move install base figure based on WHATEVER sales are presented.  Its comparable to Wii Play sales, as they may seem like the game is a huge success but many purchases were likely because of the controller.  But how do you know how many bought it for that reason?  Impossible to tell.  So when individuals celebrate or demean Move sales, it really rings hollow because its based on a general ignorance as WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

As Squil mentioned on page one, though, sales of Move-only games are the most important barometer for developers outside of SCE.  Any other sales figure will have far too many variables to judge how much they should invest in future Move titles.



Seece on 24 October 2010
Darth Tigris said:
Seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
psrock said:

But but it not going to sell

" Sony Shipped over 2.5 million without japan"

That means it overshipped

" Analyst think Move is selling better than he once believed"

But success depends on software

 

waiting for more excuses.......

The only way it will be fair is if the same folks claiming "shipped vs sold" do the same for Kinect. Guess we'll know soon enough.

Of course they will, simply because it's sales arnt so ambiguous. Whatever Kinect Adventures sells, is what Kinect has sold, shipped or not.

Quite true.

I think the big problem that keeps getting dodged by many is how IMPOSSIBLE it will be to properly  track a Move install base figure based on WHATEVER sales are presented.  Its comparable to Wii Play sales, as they may seem like the game is a huge success but many purchases were likely because of the controller.  But how do you know how many bought it for that reason?  Impossible to tell.  So when individuals celebrate or demean Move sales, it really rings hollow because its based on a general ignorance as WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

As Squil mentioned on page one, though, sales of Move-only games are the most important barometer for developers outside of SCE.  Any other sales figure will have far too many variables to judge how much they should invest in future Move titles.

Indeed, and the only true source we could ever hope to get, won't happen. Sony will always say "we've shipped 2.5 mill move" rather than "1 million install base", it just sounds better in every way to have a higher number.



 

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Squilliam on 24 October 2010

Shipment sales are most useful once things have settled down and we can tell the rate of sell through by the total shipment of controllers. With only a few data points we don't have a good referrence to exactly how fast they are selling. We don't know how many controllers on average the typical retailer will have in stock for Move given they are stocking up for Christmas sales which is precisely two months away and we don't know the average number of Move controllers a typical PS3 Move owner has.

 



Tease.

lilc64 on 24 October 2010

I think it is making me crazy i almost walked out of best buy with The $100 bundle and $40 eyepet game. Not saying i wont get it but im trying to find a gaming laptop to take offsite with my job.



greenmedic88 on 24 October 2010
richardhutnik said:
greenmedic88 said:
richardhutnik said:

Getting actual sales numbers related to Move might end up be like trying to nail jello to the wall.  Sony wants Move to counter the Wii and get more PS3 sales.  Anything else than that isn't important.  They will talk shipped.  If Sony is embedding Move as a controller option in their top titles, and the bulk of what they are doing is like this, you do have a hard time getting a read on how Move impacts game sales.  And if people buy more than one controller per Move base system, then it is hard to read how many have been moved.  Also, the PS3 camera can be upgraded to be a Move system, so that is another bit of confusion.

In short, we may never know for sure.  However, isn't what matters is that Move adds a new enjoyable experience that is meaningfully significant for PS3 owners?

If controllers keep selling at current rates, even with the fairly mediocre initial catalog then PS3 owners are finding reasons for buying new sets of controllers.

Whether that's for Move patched/enhanced games like HR, RE5 or MAG, or future Move optional games like KZ3 or SOCOM or Move exclusive titles is sort of irrelevant. Statements claiming Move sales only "count" if those controllers are used to sell Move exclusive/required titles are kind of ridiculous and basically ignore dual control scheme support.

If the controllers continue to sell well and soft support stays consistent, I'm not sure where any imagined shortcomings might be coming from. Obviously not for everyone, but even now, there seems to be enough PS3 owners who are at the very least, curious enough to plunk down $50-100 or more on Move.

For Sony, Move is supposed to cause people to graduate from the Wii to a PS3 with Move.  The future will be governed by how PS3 sales hold up against the Wii.   For developers, however, knowing how large the base of Move owners is, is important for deciding whether to do games based around iut.

Currently the PS3 is outselling the Wii in all three major regions, but it's really hard to read anything too deeply from basic short term console sales numbers. Holiday sales figures would probably tell a clearer story with fewer excuses to rationalize short term sales blips.

I haven't been following the trends hawkishly, but in general, both the 360 and PS3 have been outselling the Wii as of late, but I wouldn't exactly jump to the conclusion that it's because Move and Kinect are responsible for any sort of migration from the Wii.

Plus the whole migration thing doesn't fully apply considering that the best selling titles on the Wii are almost exclusively Nintendo titles, never to be seen on competing platforms.

If a developer wants to create a Move exclusive title, then sure; they have to know the general size of the user base as well as the purchasing habits of said user base before setting a pipeline and budget for the project. If it's not a big number, then expect low budget projects with short development turnover times to minimize risk.

But I'm just not convinced that the best Move compatible games will even require Move. Dual control scheme. Unless you design a game that is so far out of the box that it requires Move specific input, it is nothing more than a gimmick to make a game Move only. Kung Fu Riders could have easily been done with standard DS3 controls for example.



GameAnalyser on 24 October 2010

Long live PS Move!!



greenmedic88 on 24 October 2010
Squilliam said:

Shipment sales are most useful once things have settled down and we can tell the rate of sell through by the total shipment of controllers. With only a few data points we don't have a good referrence to exactly how fast they are selling. We don't know how many controllers on average the typical retailer will have in stock for Move given they are stocking up for Christmas sales which is precisely two months away and we don't know the average number of Move controllers a typical PS3 Move owner has.

 

Two seems like a reasonable number, but either it's a bit higher, say 2.5 per user, or SCE really shorted the number of standalone controllers being shipped to retail during the first month plus of release.

Everything I've seen since launch indicates that standalone controllers are the commodity, given the limited availability, flipping and vendor price gouging.

While I'm sure there will be those who insist otherwise, I seriously doubt that the typical Move consumer is buying 4 controllers because "it's required to get the full experience." Even the demonstration kiosk I saw only had two controllers set up per station.