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Forums - Sales - Move to outsell kinect 2010?

Ldn.se said:

 

I doubted that move will sell a lot but it’s out of stock already with online retailers in the UK. Maybe not a great launch but it looks that people keep buying it. I checked my orders with play.com this morning and they are awaiting stock (GT5 too!):

 

Order Date

 

Item

 

Price

 

Status

 

22/10/2010

Prince Of Persia Trilogy HD (PlayStation3)

  • Deliver to: ----------------------------------- 

£24.99

Pre-ordered

 

22/10/2010

PlayStation Move: Sports Champions (PlayStation3)

  • Deliver to: ---------------------------------- 

£22.69

Packing

 

22/10/2010

PlayStation Move: Motion Controller (PlayStation3)

  • Deliver to: ----------------------------------)

£29.99

Awaiting Stock

 

19/10/2010

A Christmas Carol: 3D Super Play (With Digital Copy) (Blu-ray)

  • Deliver to: ---------------------------------- 

£17.99

Pre-ordered

 

11/10/2010

Gran Turismo 5 (with Play.com Exclusive Pre-Order 'Stealth Model' Car Pack) (PlayStation3)

  • Deliver to: ---------------------------------- 

£37.99

Awaiting Stock

 

The individual move controllers are out of stock because Sony undershipped those, but the Bundles are in plenty of supply everywhere. The controllers being sold out just means Sony undershipped those, not that Move is somehow selling really well. If the latter were the case the Move started bundles wouldn't be in plenty of stock everywhere like they are.

I know that most stores got in 4 or 5 times more bundles than they did individual controllers so it isn't a surprise that the controllers sold out.



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hatmoza said:

The new excuse:

"every 2 Move controllers = 1 Kinect"


Every 2 purchased XBOX 360's = 1 working PS3. 

I'll use that excuse.. 



Jadedx said:
pezus said:
Jadedx said:
HoggleBoggle said:

 a full single player move setup consists of 3 items - the camera, the move controller and the navigation controller. a two player setup would be 5 items. However until sony give a definition for what a "unit" is there is no point comparing sales figures. end of story.


If you want to be able to play all of the move games you will need a camera, 2 move controllers, and a navi controlller, 4 products.

Wrong!

WTF are you talking about?  Some games you need two move controllers, some you need the navi, and all need to camera, 4 products.

Name one game that requires 2 Move controllers. There are none. 2 controller play in the few games that have that control option is just that: optional.

Now name one game that requires the nav-con. There are none. It is strictly optional as the left half of the DS3 is functionally the same. Everyone who's read enough about Move to have even the slightest opinion of it already knows this.

Don't want to get you worked up over something you have no interest in as a consumer, but by the same token, keep your opinions in check until you actually have enough first hand experience to know "WTF you are talking about," as you would put it.

I'm getting a bit tired of the FUD that's in circulation over Move. You need to buy exactly one Move controller and one PSEye to play.

A bunch of the current Move games aren't even multiplayer and have no two controller option so unless we're only counting "4 player games that require each player to use three controllers each with three hands," the starter pack gives a player all they need until they want to add more players and options for the games that have them.



RVDondaPC said:
hatmoza said:

The new excuse:

"every 2 Move controllers = 1 Kinect"


Every 2 purchased XBOX 360's = 1 working PS3. 

I'll use that excuse.. 



Can I hazard that:

1 - people need to stop focusing on SW to judge Move sales.  A quick search of a few online sites shows that the bundle is charting higher than SW.  I'd guess many casual purchasers won't realize until they get it and play the demos they don't even have a full game yet. In short, it's perfectly possible, and supported to an extent by online retail sales charts, that demand for the Move hardware is higher than the available software (wow, it's just like PS3 launch all over again!)

 

2 - a Move unit is almost certainly any Move branded HW, which would be the Bundle, the Move Wand and the Navi.  I'll eat a crow pie if each of those sold isn't treated as a Move unit by Sony.  So if 2.5 million has been shipped then that will comprise Bundles, Move Wands and Navis

 

Thinking about the OP some more - whether Move sells more depends upon what you count as a sale.

If it's just units, then Move might well.  I've bought 2 Wands and a Navi which means 3 units sold for Sony, each almost certainly at a profit, whereas if I get Kinect that will be a single unit purchase.

So given each customer can purchase far more units of Move, as a peripheral it has a fair shot at selling more by units.  But in terms of customer base I expect Kinect to do better, at least initially anyway.

After the launch of Kinect it'll be down to legs and word of mouth for each.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

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Reasonable said:

Can I hazard that:

1 - people need to stop focusing on SW to judge Move sales.  A quick search of a few online sites shows that the bundle is charting higher than SW.  I'd guess many casual purchasers won't realize until they get it and play the demos they don't even have a full game yet. In short, it's perfectly possible, and supported to an extent by online retail sales charts, that demand for the Move hardware is higher than the available software (wow, it's just like PS3 launch all over again!)

 

2 - a Move unit is almost certainly any Move branded HW, which would be the Bundle, the Move Wand and the Navi.  I'll eat a crow pie if each of those sold isn't treated as a Move unit by Sony.  So if 2.5 million has been shipped then that will comprise Bundles, Move Wands and Navis

 

Thinking about the OP some more - whether Move sells more depends upon what you count as a sale.

If it's just units, then Move might well.  I've bought 2 Wands and a Navi which means 3 units sold for Sony, each almost certainly at a profit, whereas if I get Kinect that will be a single unit purchase.

So given each customer can purchase far more units of Move, as a peripheral it has a fair shot at selling more by units.  But in terms of customer base I expect Kinect to do better, at least initially anyway.

After the launch of Kinect it'll be down to legs and word of mouth for each.

I was thinking about this earlier and came to the conclusion that Move will probably generate similar revenue as Kinect, possibly more over time if multiplayer games become popular enough. Much like the Wii, the PS3 has the potential to sell a lot of controllers, each of which are highly profitable.

And if the typical Move consumer isn't buying multiple controllers, then it can only mean that the total number of units sold is that much closer to the actual installed user base.

If the typical buyer is spending $150 on a starter pack and an extra controller, you'd have well over a 1m installed user base given 2.5m units sold (less likely). If that number is under 1m, then the assumption has to be that either SCE is either selling a lot of nav-cons (they seem to be in stock everywhere, so unless they greatly overshipped it seems less likely) or quite a few consumers are buying at least two extra controllers (one extra seems more likely).

If that were the case, then there's a significant portion of users who are spending anywhere from $150 to $200 on Move. I'd be more inclined to believe that there are more unique users (who only bought a starter pack or one controller) than the former.



NYANKS said:
RVDondaPC said:
hatmoza said:

The new excuse:

"every 2 Move controllers = 1 Kinect"


Every 2 purchased XBOX 360's = 1 working PS3. 

I'll use that excuse.. 

 

In terms of revenue, a starter pack and an extra Move controller would equal 1 Kinect unit sold.

If anyone wants to take the total number of Move units sold and divide it in half to compare installed user base relative to Kinect, that's not terribly unreasonable.

Of course, any given unique user could potentially buy more controllers in the future. And no, I don't think the typical user will buy or feel obliged to buy 4 controllers and 4 nav-cons. That's just plain ridiculous, not that SCE would be terribly upset if the typical user spent $370 on controllers, even if it was selling to a smaller installed user base.



It's worth noting the huge Wiimote sales noted by Nintendo.  In short, if Move sells okay, and the games are fun enough, Sony stands a good chance of seeing a lot of additional sales.

Heck, my kids already want me to buy 2 more wands (in addition to the two we have) so they can fight each other using 2 wands each in Sports Champions.  I've resisted so far because I'm mean and I'm not even sure you can do that in SC (must check) but I'll probably crumble which means I'll have 4 wands.

If there's one thing we can draw from the Wii model, if the games are fun enough and encourage multiple controllers a lot more people than you'd think will slowly invest.  While the total figure can seem huge, when you're buying a single wand at a time over a number of months it just doesn't seem like much.

I believe this is why Sony are clearly positioning Move more as a traditional peripheral controller, because in a sense it is and, should it take off well enough, this model typically drives a lot of additional (very profitable) hardware sales.  With Move Sony I believe are targeting hardware sales, in addition of course to more consoles, software and PSN users.

MS are pushing Kinect more as a console launch, which in a sense it is as you would only reasonably buy one and that's it.  After that the upside for MS is install base, consoles sales, software sales and hopefully more Live subscriptions.  However unlike Move, at this point Kinect doesn't seem well positioned to drive addition hardware peripheral sales (and unless MS subtly change the message right now the whole 'you are the controller' make Kinect the end result, no more peripherals required - unless you really want that inflatable boat!)

With the higher entry price (even if arguably lower multiple player price) it also seems more sensible to position Kinect this way.

Anyway, like I said I think that, at least over the first three months, Kinect will see the larger install base, but Move might well see the higher individual unit sales.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

I don't think we have the tools to track move hardware sales and thus this discussion is nearly pointless. However, we can check the sales of move and kinect exclusive softwares and estimate if they are a success or not. For this comparison, it is no important if VGChartz numbers are accurate or not as long as they are precise and share the same bias.

Personally, I believe Sony and Microsoft will expend a huge time and money selling the idea their controllers are huge. However, I think sales will be mediocre, at best.



To judge sales of Kinect vs Move all we will need to analyze is PS3 vs 360 vs Wii sales the remainder of the year. If they dont change much vs the last few years averages then neither Kinect or Move did much to change the market.  If either the PS3 or the 360 sales accelerate then Move or Kinect will have been a signifigant part of the change.  If 360 and/or PS3 sales continue to trend well against the Wii vs past years then Kinect and/or Move have helped cut the Wii market by taking away the Wii's primary advantage.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.