Can I hazard that:
1 - people need to stop focusing on SW to judge Move sales. A quick search of a few online sites shows that the bundle is charting higher than SW. I'd guess many casual purchasers won't realize until they get it and play the demos they don't even have a full game yet. In short, it's perfectly possible, and supported to an extent by online retail sales charts, that demand for the Move hardware is higher than the available software (wow, it's just like PS3 launch all over again!)
2 - a Move unit is almost certainly any Move branded HW, which would be the Bundle, the Move Wand and the Navi. I'll eat a crow pie if each of those sold isn't treated as a Move unit by Sony. So if 2.5 million has been shipped then that will comprise Bundles, Move Wands and Navis
Thinking about the OP some more - whether Move sells more depends upon what you count as a sale.
If it's just units, then Move might well. I've bought 2 Wands and a Navi which means 3 units sold for Sony, each almost certainly at a profit, whereas if I get Kinect that will be a single unit purchase.
So given each customer can purchase far more units of Move, as a peripheral it has a fair shot at selling more by units. But in terms of customer base I expect Kinect to do better, at least initially anyway.
After the launch of Kinect it'll be down to legs and word of mouth for each.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
