TWW sold what it deserved to imo.  2/3 the sales for 2/3 the Zelda. ;)

The game that really got robbed was MM imo. So daring, so awesome, so misunderstood. ;_;

If this turns into a "Which Zelda is best?" discussion - well, it won't be as bad as a "Which FF is best?" discussion, but it will be outside the stated intent of this topic.

Retroking: I'm not counting the 3DS release here. This is about original releases.

Just looking at the numbers, I have no idea how it could manage not to. Let's do a worst-case scenario for Twilight Princess here: no player's choice release, and no sales from new areas that the Wii launches in.

So far in 2010, Twilight Princess has sold 297,000 copies. In the same period in 2009, it sold 269,000. For the rest of the year from now, Twilight Princess sold 80,000 copies last year. That leads us to Twilight Princess selling around 80,000 this year too.

However, Twilight Princess is doing far better right now than it did at the same point last year. For the last 4 weeks, it has sold 32,000, whereas last year it sold only 19,000.

If that ratio is maintained, it means Twilight Princess would sell 130,000 for the rest of 2010.

As TP needs 310,000 to best OoT from right now, that means it's going to need somewhere between 230,000 and 180,000 more after 2010.

Now, how hard will making that be? The most obvious comparison is Phantom Hourglass, and how well it sold after The Spirit Tracks came out.

When The Spirit Tracks came out, Phantom Hourglass had been on the marked for roughly 130 weeks. For the 52 weeks before the Spirit Tracks came out (week 80-130 for Phantom Hourglass), Phantom Hourglass had sold 160,000 copies. For the 40 weeks since then (week 130-170), Phantom Hourglass has sold 150,000 copies. In other words; it actually sold slightly more after The Spirit Tracks released. It either received a slight boost, or wasn't changed at all by it.

Or for that sake, let's take Super Mario Galaxy, as it's on Wii. It's sequel released in Super Mario Galaxy's week # 135, in late-May 2010.

For the 21 weeks (from the start of 2010) before SMG2 launched, SMG sold 208,000 copies.  For the 21 weeks following it (which doesn't count any weeks that have a holiday boost), it sold 391,000 copies. 

Nintendo titles have the amazing ability that sequels don't ruin the predecessor's sales. In fact, they tend to boost them. I'd be willing to bet that Twilight Princess will sell more in 2011 than it did in 2010.  

I'd say Twilight Princess should pass Ocarina of Time sometime in late Quarter 3 next year. Its total sales by the end of next year should be around 7.8 million, and it should pass 8 million before all is said and done for the title.

Edit: Oh, that "a bit over 8 million" estimate is also assuming that there isn't any player's choice release, and that Twilight Princess doesn't receive some sort of re-release in other countries. With those (which by all means are very likely to come), I'd say 8.5 million doesn't seem unlikely.

On a completely separate note, I wonder how much Ocarina of Time will sell all versions combined. The Master's Quest edition is sure to have sold a million, then there's the Virtual Console release which has definitely passed 1 million (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/4790/channel-surfing-wiiwarevirtual-console-sales-chart-july-2009/), and now there's the 3DS release.

I have no idea about Master Quest's sales numbers, but I think 1.4 million is a fair guess. That puts the "pre-3DS release" Ocarina of Time numbers up to roughly 10 million. How much can the 3DS version add to that total? If the Super Mario 64 remake is anything to go by, it could potentially make it as high as 15 million.

(Again, this has nothing to do with your comparison, I was just curious)

Edit 2: Fixed a numbers error. Whoops!

Oh... mentioning Galaxy makes me want a Mario Galaxy vs Mario 64 comparison!

Always a delight to have you pop in, Pineoyv.

I tend to agree that when including re-releases, Ocarina will end up gracefully cresting 15 million. Twilight Princess will take decades to get that high, if it ever does (it probably will not get the affectionate remake treatment).

Mario Galaxy vs. Mario 64 is not as interesting, because it's.... well, at the moment it looks like it will never get that far, barring late-game bundling or a reduced price.

Yay!

I don't think Super Mario Galaxy has a chance to beat Super Mario 64, though. It's 2.9 million behind, and its best days are behind it. But let's have a look!

So far in 2010, SMG has sold 599,000 copies. In the same period of '09 it sold 827,000 copies. For the rest of the year last year, SMG sold 216,000 copies. Looking at just that, SMG is likely to sell a bit less than 200,000 copies for the rest of this year.

However, SMG has seen a boost recently. The last 4 weeks, it has sold 83,000, whereas last year it sold "only" 46,000. If that ratio holds, SMG would sell around 390,000 copies this holiday. It's unlikely to, though, but it should do better than last year. 300,000 doesn't seem too unlikely to me.

In other words, we're looking at 900,000-ish for SMG for 2010. It will need around 2.5 million more to best Super Mario 64.

Seeing as nearly everyone who buys a Wii will want Super Mario Galaxy, it's not impossible for it to sell 900,000 in '11 and '12 with the help of a player's choice release and some new Wii areas. This only holds true if there's no new Wii launch by then, though.

If Nintendo releases it as a Player's Choice, without making a lot of Player's Choice games, it could do it. This is provided that there's no new generation of consoles until 2013, though.

SMG is very unlikely to make it, but it could. Over 11 million seems likely.

Interestingly, Super Mario 64 will "really" made nearly double of that, if you include re-releases. 12 million for the original, 9-10 million for the DS version and 1.5-2 million for the Virtual Console version. That's a whooping ~ 23 million

Twilight Princess moved 12 thousand units this week, up from 9 thousand last week.

If it continues to see a decent holiday boost it will be within a stone's throw by the end of the year, possibly with only ~200k left to go. If sales stay elevated before Skyward Sword hits, it should end up crossing around when Pineapple predicted.

14.6k in the past week. Moseying right along.

Interesting point of fact: Twilight Princess is already significantly bigger in the Americas and Europe than was Ocarina. It is only Japan where it lags behind (albeit badly, there, at nearly 800k).

Guys, have your ever though about the different versions of Ocarina of Time??

I think, i f you only count the Ocarina N64 version, TP will outsell it in the next year. But, if you count the other Ocarinas, such as theZelda Collector's Edition in the NGC, the Ocarina of Time Collection in the NGC, and the Virtual Console sales, I think TP has much to reach.

As I said earlier in this thread, this is about initial releases.