| jarrod said: Oh... mentioning Galaxy makes me want a Mario Galaxy vs Mario 64 comparison! |
Yay!
I don't think Super Mario Galaxy has a chance to beat Super Mario 64, though. It's 2.9 million behind, and its best days are behind it. But let's have a look!
So far in 2010, SMG has sold 599,000 copies. In the same period of '09 it sold 827,000 copies. For the rest of the year last year, SMG sold 216,000 copies. Looking at just that, SMG is likely to sell a bit less than 200,000 copies for the rest of this year.
However, SMG has seen a boost recently. The last 4 weeks, it has sold 83,000, whereas last year it sold "only" 46,000. If that ratio holds, SMG would sell around 390,000 copies this holiday. It's unlikely to, though, but it should do better than last year. 300,000 doesn't seem too unlikely to me.
In other words, we're looking at 900,000-ish for SMG for 2010. It will need around 2.5 million more to best Super Mario 64.
Seeing as nearly everyone who buys a Wii will want Super Mario Galaxy, it's not impossible for it to sell 900,000 in '11 and '12 with the help of a player's choice release and some new Wii areas. This only holds true if there's no new Wii launch by then, though.
If Nintendo releases it as a Player's Choice, without making a lot of Player's Choice games, it could do it. This is provided that there's no new generation of consoles until 2013, though.
SMG is very unlikely to make it, but it could. Over 11 million seems likely.
Interestingly, Super Mario 64 will "really" made nearly double of that, if you include re-releases. 12 million for the original, 9-10 million for the DS version and 1.5-2 million for the Virtual Console version. That's a whooping ~ 23 million
