Well just think, if the DSlite wasnt released would it be doing as well as it has?

 Idunno. I got 2 DS (not lite) and my mom has a DSlite. I like the old DS better.

I think something really unexpected would have to happen to stop the ds before it reaches 100 million units, because sony can't really believe into a victory anymore and the best games for the ds are yet to come.

however, it will be interesting from a marketing point of view how the next nintendo handheld will be called. i think the brand name gameboy is at least as well known as playstation and it would be quite stupid just not to use it anymore. but on the other hand, ds is becoming a brand name too... i really wonder how nintendo will carry on. maybe they will try to do what they planned intentionally and make the ds their third leg. this would mean that they release a new gameboy which is as powerful as the psp while they still support the ds. probably this scenario is not realistic but it would be a possibility for nintendo to ensure that they keep dominating the handheld market, because if this new gameboy would fail, they could just abandon it and concentrate onto the ds 2.

Wow, excellent :)

 It won't be long before its double the PSP global sales (couple of months?), and then I predict the gap to continue growing as it takes on a life of its own. Imagine sales when DQ hits - plus a potential price cut ;)

Spent hours playing my DS last night (Pokemon Ranger - which I think is actually surprising good!) while I was watching the cricket. Its an amazing device!

As for a new hardware version... take the existing model, add 1-8Gig of flash ram (internally) and enable a system for digital distribution/download of multiple games straight to the device (via WiFi) - no cart required. This is very do-able, and would be incredibly awesome (IMO). Maybe an E3 announcement in 12 months time... :)

(and then allow this to happen via a Wii as the download point...) 

I see the final tally as something like 35 million in Japan and 30 million in each the Americas and the Other terretories. That would bring it to 95 million. However if it can sell as well as the GBA did in the Americas (nearly 40 million) than it's looking at around 110 million world wide. Assuming the DS has at least a five year lifecycle before the next Nintendo handheld and continue to do well after the next handheld is released than it's heading to a 90 million plus final tally in any case.

5Million? A little of there?

 roadkillers said:

 Well just think, if the DSlite wasnt released would it be doing as well as it has?

It terms of success, yes. The Lite just boosted sales. So, in terms of sales, no.

A great discussion going on...

I think the DS family will eventually sell 100M. It may reach that goal with the current Lite unit and certainly will with whatever successor comes along. (I'm betting the 'DS2' will have larger, higher res screens (about PSP size), be backwards compatible with the DS but maybe not the GBA, improved battery life, faster wireless networking, and maybe allow the downloading of games directly to the unit. Expect it in 2009.)

The Game Boy is dead. It may come back in the future, but Nintendo will consolidate their efforts on the DS and Wii. The whole 'third pillar' thing was just in case the DS failed. If the DS didn't do well, Nintendo would have brought out a new Game Boy in late 2005 or early 2006. But with the amazing sales of the DS, there's no way they're going to split that up with a third system.

While the redesign has helped sale, I'm sure the DS would still be leading without it. I'm still shocked at how much better the Lite looks and feels compared to the 'Phat'. While a few may prefer the old one, all the improvements (size, battery life, screens, etc.) really hit the design nail on the head. I wonder how well the GameCube would have done if it looked more like a Mac Cube and less like a lunch box...

I could see licensing the gameboy library to a cell phone manufacturer. It could be a real cash cow. Imagine selling those old games for $2.99 and not having to do any work at all. It would be like printing free money.

I liked your chart but:

Playstation Family: 233m units (105m for PS1, 128m for PS2, 3m for PS3)

PSP:21m units

Gameboy Family: 199m units (via Wikipedia for GB, GBC, GBA, GBASP, GBM)

Nintendo Family: 170m (via wikipedia for NES, SNES, N64, GC and VGchartz for Wii)

Double-Screen Family: 40m (DS + DSLite)

Xbox Family: 35m (Xbox + Xbox 360