If Nintendo goes with $199 in the US, Japanese gamers will be importing them back to Japan.
At best, I think we'll see a $250 price, which is still not so ideal. I suppose they could sweeten the deal with a pack in game, but it would still be $250.
The only positive outcome I can see of a less than mass adoption friendly price is reduced demand due to the higher price bracketing will make it easier for Nintendo to keep pace with production.
No point in making it too cheap (even if they still post a decent profit on each unit sold) if they are nowhere near keeping up with initial demand. If that were the scenario, the big winners would be the same people who flip new consoles when they're still hard to come by. And I see no reason why Nintendo should help those guys out.