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Forums - Sales Discussion - Quick Reference HW Charts, Sep - Dec 08/09/10

jarrod said:
Seece said:
jarrod said:

leo-j said:

 The ps2 didn't have these issues now did it.

PS2 didn't face a hostile industry that more or less did everything in it's power to try and push it's competition ahead of it.  Indeed, PS2 found itself in the opposite position.

Wii's record breaking success literally rests entirely on Nintendo's shoulders.  That's something no PlayStation or Xbox can really say, and likely never could in the future either...

TBH whoever came out with the motion controller first would likely have seen those sales. They're not down to Nintendo it's down to the motion control, past generations put proof to that.

Hardware sells with software.  Without Nintendo software, Wii would not have been the phenom it was.  Same story as with NES/Famicom, Game Boy, DS and every other revolutionary Nintendo platform.


if it was all about the software the gamecube would have no trouble outselling the ps2..



 

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jarrod said:

leo-j said:

 The ps2 didn't have these issues now did it.

PS2 didn't face a hostile industry that more or less did everything in it's power to try and push it's competition ahead of it.  Indeed, PS2 found itself in the opposite position.

Wii's record breaking success literally rests entirely on Nintendo's shoulders.  That's something no PlayStation or Xbox can really say, and likely never could in the future either...


really ? So because nintendo never cared to really push 3rd party games on the WII as hard as sony has on the ps3, nintendo should be praised on "carrying the weight on their own"? If anything the other companies should be praised for getting 3rd party devs to jump on consoles that cost much more to develop for and have a much smaller audience than the wii does.

Now that's effort, look at sony, they're releasing more games than nintendo is times 2 or maybe even 3, and have been most of this gen..

so.. I don't get what your point is, and wii's success can't just be based off software and the fact it has nintendo 1st party ip, because the gamecube had nintendo's support, and possibly even more 3rd party big budget ip support than the wii and it didn't sell that well. So like seece says the chances of the motion controller being what made the wii the success it is, is pretty high, that and the fact it launced way cheaper than the other two consoles.

 

edit: Oh noez.. I responded in a thread twice in a row.. I guess that means I'm ganna get banned now..



 

mM
Seece said:
jarrod said:
Seece said:
jarrod said:

leo-j said:

 The ps2 didn't have these issues now did it.

PS2 didn't face a hostile industry that more or less did everything in it's power to try and push it's competition ahead of it.  Indeed, PS2 found itself in the opposite position.

Wii's record breaking success literally rests entirely on Nintendo's shoulders.  That's something no PlayStation or Xbox can really say, and likely never could in the future either...

TBH whoever came out with the motion controller first would likely have seen those sales. They're not down to Nintendo it's down to the motion control, past generations put proof to that.

Hardware sells with software.  Without Nintendo software, Wii would not have been the phenom it was.  Same story as with NES/Famicom, Game Boy, DS and every other revolutionary Nintendo platform.

We'll never know what would have happened if Sony or Microsoft released the motion controller first with THEIR franchises. Nintendo name wasn't very strong in the industry prior to Wii.

Actually, it was pretty strong with DS already.  And games like Brain Training, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing WW, Mario Kart DS and New Super Mario Bros, all games that have gone on to outsell every game to ever come out of Microsoft or Sony.

Again, software drives hardware.  Hardware's just a means to an end, and without Nintendo's software, Wii would've been stillborn.

 

leo-j said:

really ? So because nintendo never cared to really push 3rd party games on the WII as hard as sony has on the ps3, nintendo should be praised on "carrying the weight on their own"? If anything the other companies should be praised for getting 3rd party devs to jump on consoles that cost much more to develop for and have a much smaller audience than the wii does.

Now that's effort, look at sony, they're releasing more games than nintendo is times 2 or maybe even 3, and have been most of this gen..

so.. I don't get what your point is, and wii's success can't just be based off software and the fact it has nintendo 1st party ip, because the gamecube had nintendo's support, and possibly even more 3rd party big budget ip support than the wii and it didn't sell that well. So like seece says the chances of the motion controller being what made the wii the success it is, is pretty high, that and the fact it launced way cheaper than the other two consoles.

 

edit: Oh noez.. I responded in a thread twice in a row.. I guess that means I'm ganna get banned now..

Are you kidding me?  Nintendo's done far more to push 3rd party Wii games than Sony has for PS3 3rd parties.  Mario & Sonic, Monster Hunter Tri, DQ Swords, Samurai Warriors 3... and that's not even considering DS stuff like Professor Layton or Dragon Quest IX.  Sony doesn't even come close.

If 360 didn't exist, PS3 would be dead by now.  Sony's lucky Microsoft saved their ass by ensuring a combined "HD format" for developers to focus on.  Microsoft definitely deserves some credit though, they've really gone above and beyond for 3rd parties in general.

Nintendo though, should really be praised for overcoming the odds, and making their systems unheard of successes basically single handedly this gen.  No other current console maker could do the same thing frankly, if Sony or Microsoft were ever forced to chiefly rely on their own games like Nintendo often is, neither would be in this industry today.

And again, GameCube didn't have Wii Sports/Play/Fit.  Y'know, the 3 best selling Wii games, games that actually sold better than GameCube itself... it's not the Wiimote alone that sold people on Wii, it's not the concept of motion control, it was how Nintendo's games used it that did it.  Wii Sports chiefly, which is why bundling it in the west was such a genius move.



Seece said:
leo-j said:
Seece said:

Something I've already noticed, Sales don't start picking up until the last week of October, unless there is a big game, price cut, ect. If a console rolls into the xmas Q with nothing big happening, it takes until the last week of October to boost. As seen by 2008 for PS3 and 2009 for Xbox 360.

Wii in 2008 was still sought after, going by the fluctuations in September, in 2009 the September price cut automatically rose sales. 360 2008 had it's price cut in September also, and PS3 had slim and price cut in September as well.

So unless Wii does get a price cut or something else, don't expect it's sales to start lifting until the last week of October.

would be interesting if it ever drops below 100k, although unlikely, that would be huge.. as it's lowest sales so far have been the sales of this week of 135K, any lower and it continues to set record lows..

and people say this is like any other year for the wii, well based on sales trends it's not.. and not only that but the wii is $199.. not $249 like it was this time last year.

I think 100k is a bit of a stretch, if I'm right and it doesn't start rising by last week of October, it has 5 weeks to drop to that level. Possible it could go below 115k.

Based on your charts, numbers in October are higher than numbers in September even with no price cut, redesign or big game releases. (360 in 2008 and 2009, PS3 in 2008, Wii in 2008) Why do you think Wii's October would be worse than September this year?



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

saicho said:
Seece said:
leo-j said:
Seece said:

Something I've already noticed, Sales don't start picking up until the last week of October, unless there is a big game, price cut, ect. If a console rolls into the xmas Q with nothing big happening, it takes until the last week of October to boost. As seen by 2008 for PS3 and 2009 for Xbox 360.

Wii in 2008 was still sought after, going by the fluctuations in September, in 2009 the September price cut automatically rose sales. 360 2008 had it's price cut in September also, and PS3 had slim and price cut in September as well.

So unless Wii does get a price cut or something else, don't expect it's sales to start lifting until the last week of October.

would be interesting if it ever drops below 100k, although unlikely, that would be huge.. as it's lowest sales so far have been the sales of this week of 135K, any lower and it continues to set record lows..

and people say this is like any other year for the wii, well based on sales trends it's not.. and not only that but the wii is $199.. not $249 like it was this time last year.

I think 100k is a bit of a stretch, if I'm right and it doesn't start rising by last week of October, it has 5 weeks to drop to that level. Possible it could go below 115k.

Based on your charts, numbers in October are higher than numbers in September even with no price cut, redesign or big game releases. (360 in 2008 and 2009, PS3 in 2008, Wii in 2008) Why do you think Wii's October would be worse than September this year?

I already explained, a console with nothing new, (price cut, big game ect) doesn't see lifts till last week of October. I'm skepticle Kirby, Just Dance 2 ect can do much, they could very well lift, but to high numbers I doubt, imo.



 

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Seece said:
saicho said:

Based on your charts, numbers in October are higher than numbers in September even with no price cut, redesign or big game releases. (360 in 2008 and 2009, PS3 in 2008, Wii in 2008) Why do you think Wii's October would be worse than September this year?

I already explained, a console with nothing new, (price cut, big game ect) doesn't see lifts till last week of October. I'm skepticle Kirby, Just Dance 2 ect can do much, they could very well lift, but to high numbers I doubt, imo.

You are missing my point. Traditionally each consoles have highger sales in October than in September even without price cut, big game or redesign. For 360 and PS3 in 2008 and 2009, the numbers went up from the last week of September to first week of October and For Wii, it increased each week in October. So why would the bump start at the end of October? I would say for each console, end of September is the bottom and they all slowly pick up from first week of October.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

saicho said:
Seece said:

I already explained, a console with nothing new, (price cut, big game ect) doesn't see lifts till last week of October. I'm skepticle Kirby, Just Dance 2 ect can do much, they could very well lift, but to high numbers I doubt, imo.

You are missing my point. Traditionally each consoles have highger sales in October than in September even without price cut, big game or redesign. For 360 and PS3 in 2008 and 2009, the numbers went up from the last week of September to first week of October and For Wii, it increased each week in October. So why would the bump start at the end of October? I would say for each console, end of September is the bottom and they all slowly pick up from first week of October.

I see that as just normal fluctuation, seeing as how they're both high in the start of September.



 

Seece said:
saicho said:

You are missing my point. Traditionally each consoles have highger sales in October than in September even without price cut, big game or redesign. For 360 and PS3 in 2008 and 2009, the numbers went up from the last week of September to first week of October and For Wii, it increased each week in October. So why would the bump start at the end of October? I would say for each console, end of September is the bottom and they all slowly pick up from first week of October.

I see that as just normal fluctuation, seeing as how they're both high in the start of September.

Start of September is high since generally it's a down trend throughout September. Once it gets into October, it turns into an up trend based on the data in the last two years. If you average the last 3 weeks of September and first 4 weeks of October for each console in the last two years, only PS3 last year has a higher September numbers since it has the second week of the price cut plus redesign.

You are arguing that the down trend continues until the end of October which the numbers don't support.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

saicho said:

Start of September is high since generally it's a down trend throughout September. Once it gets into October, it turns into an up trend based on the data in the last two years. If you average the last 3 weeks of September and first 4 weeks of October for each console in the last two years, only PS3 last year has a higher September numbers since it has the second week of the price cut redesign.

You are arguing that the down trend continues until the end of October which the numbers don't support.

Actually, my main point was sales don't start picking up until late October for a console with no price cut/big game, and I stand by that, I don't call sales fluctuating within a 15k range "picking up", it's quite clear what picking up means, it's the jump in the last week of October for those consoles.



 

Excellent set of charts. Think they really give a great picture of how much work the Wii is going to have to do, and likely wont, to get close to 2008 or 2009 numbers.  Likely by November 1st the September and October totals will be close to 1 million below 2009 unless something drastic happens.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.