Demotruk said:
1) Software sells systems, if you're not getting software that is compelling to the market, excitement for your console wanes. Now, fortunately Wii has got a big batch of software coming up for the holidays which should give Wii a recovery but looking at the bigger picture, let's face it, nothing is going to change. Wii has already had two major software droughts (latter half of 2008 - most of 2009, and almost all of 2010) and does anyone honestly think that 2011 will be different? So far for 2011 we only know of one significant title for sure, Zelda, and given the last two years we have no reason to think there'll be much beyond that. Third parties aren't suddenly going to change, and Nintendo themselves are now divided over three platforms. With a third year of drought, barely anyone is gonna still be excited about the console.
2) Wii may still be tracking well ahead of PS2, and might thus be expected to be able to outlast it on that basis, except for one slight issue. In the late lifetime of PS2, it wasn't making the bulk of it's sales in the traditional markets like Wii has. This is Sony's biggest advantage in the games console business, they have a strong marketing and distribution presence in regions where Nintendo is not even officially selling consoles. PS2 sold over 20 million in "Other Europe" and "Others" in it's late years which appears to be an impossibility for Wii.
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I agree with pretty much everything you said. Japan especially dropped the ball on supportin the Wii over the years. They had a PS2 right there for em and they just neglected to literally go for broke and do PS3/360 games. Granted some succeeded, but several more failed.
Now on a positive note, I at least wanna provide a list of the Wiis chances to actually beat PS2. It is...69m behind at the moment, but it has 5 years and some change to catch up. Here's what could happen:
Donkey Kong Country could at least cause 70% of the sales the Wii got from Nov.15-Jan 2 last year (this 70% would equal ~6.75 million) worldwide.
Zelda could push consoles for 1-3 weeks. If it somehow goes evergreen, that could extend by double (4-8 weeks). IMO it will at least push.... 30k in the week of its release in America, 10k in Japan, and...20k in EMEAA. Ads are key for this bad boy. I see 6.04m in its future- that has to push some units.
Dragon Quest X. This game...should manage at least 1.5m in Japan when it debuts on the Wii....in a year or 1 1/2. It can move units in Japan but I'd venture a guess that a Wii Price Cut would join it. 300k Americas/ 2.6 m Japan / 400k EMEAA is a rough guess for now for the games sales. In Japan... I could see 70k Wiis shipping out that week, 30k the next.
Vitality Sensor- this is a wildcard. If it takes off like Wii Fit did...Wii could have HUGE momentum. IDK anything about it so my guess is as good as anyone elses.
Wii Party- this should assist DKCR this holiday in pushing units. It has hit written all over it yet no one... no one really cares at the moment. HW increases will come too late to judge if this game is responsible, and plus it would take about 6-8 weeks anyways.
The Last Story- destined to be bigger than Xenoblade but I can't be sure. Could push like 10k if its excellent.
Price drops- need to come in with some bangin software. What that could be, I have no clue but this is an obvious DETAIL.
Honorable sustenance mentions (games that just remind people the Wii is still alive; these are important too) go out to: Conduit 2, Goldeneye, The Grinder, Inazuma Wii, Activision rehashes, MW2 Reflex [its coming trust me], next year's Sonic, Rabbids 14, uDraw, XSEEDs next few titles, Pikmin 3, and maybe another Wario.
....and Kirby