1) Software sells systems, if you're not getting software that is compelling to the market, excitement for your console wanes. Now, fortunately Wii has got a big batch of software coming up for the holidays which should give Wii a recovery but looking at the bigger picture, let's face it, nothing is going to change. Wii has already had two major software droughts (latter half of 2008 - most of 2009, and almost all of 2010) and does anyone honestly think that 2011 will be different? So far for 2011 we only know of one significant title for sure, Zelda, and given the last two years we have no reason to think there'll be much beyond that. Third parties aren't suddenly going to change, and Nintendo themselves are now divided over three platforms. With a third year of drought, barely anyone is gonna still be excited about the console.

2) Wii may still be tracking well ahead of PS2, and might thus be expected to be able to outlast it on that basis, except for one slight issue. In the late lifetime of PS2, it wasn't making the bulk of it's sales in the traditional markets like Wii has. This is Sony's biggest advantage in the games console business, they have a strong marketing and distribution presence in regions where Nintendo is not even officially selling consoles. PS2 sold over 20 million in "Other Europe" and "Others" in it's late years which appears to be an impossibility for Wii.

A reasonable conclusion, and reasonable bases for thinking so.

I'd like to argue the point, but I really can't.

Number 2 is the most interesting point to me - I wonder if the problem is that Nintendo just doesn't have the infrastructure to attempt selling in smaller and less well-served markets?

I totally agree with you!

Best case scenario for Wii is around 115m - 120m.

It's economies of scale. Sony is taking it's distribution advantages from other industries and using them with games consoles. Nintendo would not benefit from having this infrastructure to the same degree that Sony does because it wouldn't be using them to sell TV's etc.

Careful, Demotruk

Keep talking like that and you'll end up suggesting Nintendo might not actually care about moving more raw numbers of consoles than the PS2

Software is not really the problem with the Wii. First party games are doing great and Nintendo has been releasing games on constant flow throughout the last two years. It would be helpfull though if third party developers will finaly release some quality games in stead of thequick uninspired junk they've been since the release (with a few exceptions).

Maybe the Wii will outsell the PS2. But it's hard to predict. We don't know how long the Wii will still be here, maybe in 3 years time they can pull it off. But there are rumours going on that there's going to be a Wii HD sort of console... if this thing comes at the end of 2011 or 2012.... I think you'll be right and PS2 remains undefeated.

Well it's also possible that they do intend to expand like this (Iwata has said they do), but that the various internal problems at Nintendo have kept them from expanding beyond Korea.

Software is absolutely the problem. This year there was not one hardware pusher released for Wii outside of Japan. Super Mario Galaxy 2 was big, but not something that moves much hardware. Everything else was small potatoes, and there weren't even many minor hits.

You have a point. And in regions like middle east and Latin america, most don't even recognize the Wii. The PlayStation brand is very strong in those regions. I might also add that it's gonna track way behind in EU and japan(though DQ has yet to be released there), but maybe ahead in NA where really it's the only market been merciful riight now. 

2011 will be tough though, i can see zelda wii relax quarter one, but after that pikmin and whatnot wont be able to sustain its sales