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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 20 Game Thread

Final-Fan said:

One thing you aren't considering, theRepublic, is that No Lynches can also extend the game slightly, thus giving more time for scumhunting.  And in any case, I don't like the risk/reward of lynching someone completely at random.  I don't care if it "sacrifices a town kill", killing townies is bad, and that's really all you're probably doing.  Removing Hephaestos as a question mark isn't a good enough incentive either this early in the game, as it might be later on, because basically everyone is a question mark. 

In short, I'm okay with lynching on weak evidence Day 1 but not NO evidence.  It's just silly. 

I could go for either you or darth right now, and someone was suspecting nen-suer I believe.  Do you have anything you can actually point a finger at? 

They sort of do, but it depends on the situation.  They only extend the game by half a cycle.  So a game that would have ended during the Day, would end at Night instead.  A game that would have have ended at Night, ends during the Day.  The latter is good, the former is bad.  We have no clue how the end game is going to look right now.  A no-lynch now might mean disrupting a game that would have otherwise ended during the Day.  Then we will need to no-lynch a second time, which gives the scum a kill it would not have otherwise had.  As I said earlier, it also decreases the town's chances for error.  We get less mis-lynches by not taking the chance today.  More opportunities to lynch gives the town a higher probability of catching scum.



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Final-Fan said:
theRepublic said:
nen-suer said:
@theRepublic
I don't mind lynching on day 1, but it has to be for a reason (even a small one). random votes doesn't work for me

the odds of killing a townie is much higher. I read ur post and I don't understand ur reasoning.

No one ever does.  
The odds of getting a townie are high today.  But the odds tomorrow won't be that much better.  The odds of hitting an important townie are going to be even higher tomorrow.
No-lynching today also gives the town less room for error.  We will have one less mis-lynch before we lose the game than if we had lynched today.

Explain plz

Assuming 4 scum one kill

4/17 = 23.5%  ==>  4/16 = 25%

Assuming 5 scum one kill

5/17 = 29.4% ==> 5/16 = 31.3%

Not a big difference.  Even with more kills.

(4/17 = 23.5%) 4/15 = 26.7% --------- (5/17 = 29.4%) 5/15 = 33.3%

At best were looking at a four percent increase.  Of course, power roles could turn something up, but that is a crap shoot too.

As for the important townie, well that should be pretty obvious.  As the game progresses, there are less people, so it is harder to hide.

1/17 = 5.8% ==> 1/16 = 6.25% or 1/15 = 6.67%

Not that it is a big change, but I only point this out to counter the people who are worried about lynching an important townie.  It is always a risk, and only increases as the game goes on.



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It doesn't necessarily increase.  We could lose one tonight and then the odds would be lower
This applies to the whole game.  Your calculation for the odds of mislynching someone important assumes that they only die to mislynches.  We wish! 

But I could believe that your tragically wrong predilection is honest, and in light of that I may be willing to excuse your ridiculous bandwagon vote -- or, rather, not vote you because of it. 

Is this darth's first game?  He seemed AWFULLY eager to get to "day 2", i.e. Night 1.  More generally, do you have any actual suspects at all? 



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Final-Fan said:

It doesn't necessarily increase.  We could lose one tonight and then the odds would be lower
This applies to the whole game.  Your calculation for the odds of mislynching someone important assumes that they only die to mislynches.  We wish!

That doesn't disprove my point.

Which is not lynching today because due to a worry that it might expose an important role is silly.  That danger is just as present every Day.



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As for suspects, I'll look more closely tomorrow.  Bed now.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
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For the record, I completely agere with the lynch on small mafia games (the ones where Rep say you can predict the nights).

On bigger games (like this one kind of), I believe there's no good justification if there's no evidence, there i'm more of a Vetterman guy (and yes I know you had motive round 18, were I not modkilled I would have backed you up in that discution, but it's just funny to tease you on it).

I'm a hard reader on Rep, but he explained himself again calmly and didn't deviate from his philosophy, i'll degrade my HoS to FoS.



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Also we'll get an extra night as the mafia will utterly fail on FF tonight, so the "giving a kill" away is not even a worthy reason.

though that is assuming the doctor is pleased with FF's bribe of his august presence...



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HAs everyone who signed up posted in this thread?



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

dsister said:

Any reason you got on him but not Vetteman? 

Vetteman is the type of guy who is cool with voting no lynch on day 2, let alone day 1.