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Forums - Sales - Will the PS3 overtake the XBox 360 in 2 years?

onebadwood on 11 September 2010

its a virtual tie since the ps3 launch which be a more accurate way of putting the sales

here is vg charts snice the ps3 launch

 

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 12th Nov 2006 to 04th Sep 2010:

 

Console PS3 X360
Total
37,357,719
37,541,873


Formatted for easy copy & paste into spreadsheets and other websites!



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ZenfoldorVGI on 11 September 2010

I doubt it will happen, but if it does, it'll be after the next generation consoles launch, and it really won't matter anymore.



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saicho on 11 September 2010
kowenicki said:
goddog said:
kowenicki said:
BHR-3 said:
numonex said:

http://gamer.blorge.com/2010/05/28/ps3-to-overtake-xbox-360-in-2-years/

Here is the article from gamer.blorge. 

Does anyone believe the PS3 can actually overtake the 360 within 2 years?

I personally have my doubts whether the PS3 can overtake the 360 this generation. Gran Turismo 5 is the PS3s last chance. The XBox 360s, Halo:Reach should be enough to offset Gran Turismo 5 sales impact.  I believe both PS Move and Kinect will have no real impact on the sales. The Wii has the casual  video game market wrapped up this generation. 

Three years time seems more likely when the PS3 overtakes the 360. MS knows how to get more out of the 360. 360 Slim launch was a brilliant move and the Kinect should extend the 360s life span to 10 years. PS3 may have to wait until 2013 or 2014 when it overtakes the 360 in total console sales.  

yes no problem the last shipment gap was 3.6M

no its not its still hasnt reached a $199 price and there are numerous AAA exclusives left

anyone that wants Reach already bought one sure it will have a HW bump do to LE console same cant be said for GT5, Agent, Last Guardian ect

Move does have some serious hardcore games supporting it so just because you think wii has the lock on casuals only means that a devise that appeals and offers games to the casuals only will suffer more

agreed bout the life span

id say it will take 2nd in 2011 or in the fiscal year of 2011 i also believe that PS3 will be the number one selling console in 2011 its SW lineup is insane and there will be a price cut for that will have the bigger impact than what nintendo or MS do with there prices next year

you should expect that gap to have increased in the next shipment numbers....

And you said all of this towards the end of last year....   

 

In terms of actual sales thru to customers:

For PS3 to overtake 360, PS3 will need to outsell 360 by:   


MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

saicho on 11 September 2010

I broke the thread! :(



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

cloud1161 on 11 September 2010

well sony's consoles always last longer than any other.  so it might not be this generation, but eventually the ps3 will outsell 360.



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Michael-5 on 12 September 2010
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:
evolution_1ne said:
Michael-5 said:

I think the only way PS3 will overtake 360 in overall sales is if PS4 comes out a year later then X-Box successor, and even then it's iffy.

In the 4 years since PS3's launch, PS3 sales have only been above 360 sales ocassionally during a big game release, and since the PS3 Slim. Now that the PS3's Slim effect has worn off, Microsoft has a temporary lead due to a slightly better fall lineup (Kinect > Move, Halo = GT5, Fable = LBP), and it's own Slim effect. In 2011, both Slim effects will have faded, and it will most likely be like it was before the PS3 slim effect. This isn't garenteed, but regardless Sony will be having a hard time just selling above the 360, nevermind catching up a potential 6 million console difference by the end of the year

and then Sony drops the price of the ps3 to 199.........

why oh why do people always seem to ignore the fact that the lowest selling ps3 sku is at 299, remember the ps3 during the time it slaughtered the 360 due to the price cut last year.......was STILL the most expensive console on the market....

PS3 outsold 360 last year because of a Slim redesign and a price cut to boost it. Now 360 is outselling the PS3 on an almost equal level with only a redesign and no price cut. A price cut to $200 would affect both consoles equally.

PS3 had many price cuts from it's initial $600 price tag, and only the only with the redesign pushed sales above 360 level. Why do you beleive, against the statistics, that a $100 price cut on both consoles with no redesign will favor PS3 more, when it hasn't in the past? If anything, wouldn't it favor the 360 more since the arcade model will be selling for $100-$130 US? At that price, the consoles costs the same as a couple new games, how many people can ignore that?

The 360 has been outselling the PS3 consistantly until last August due to the PS3 Slim redesign. Now Microsoft has balanced the scales with it's own Slim redesign, and it will remain the better selling console of the two for the remainder of the generation (outside a few weeks due to large PS3 game releases like GT5). Also Kinect may really push sales towards the 360, Move won't do much for PS3 at all.


so the 360 getting a price cut to a price it is already at and have been for the past 2.5 years will see the same if not bigger boost than the ps3 who has never been at the price point ever.....ok

and console redesigns  make bigger boost than price cuts...................... riiiiiight

you know the majority of the 360s boost came from a clearance of it's old models and selling to existing users right?

IF most sales came from clearance models, then why did 360 sales in EMEAA stay relativly flat after the announcement of the 360 Slim? Look at the weekly data, the 360 Slim was announced and released in Americas on June 14th, sales jumped in Americas. A clearance was announced on all old 360 SKU, but this clearance was worldwide. Why didn't EMEAA and Japan sales jump then? Why did they only jump when the 360 Slim was released a month later in July? Why did the arcade slim 360 make a boost in sales despite being released up to two months after the clearance on old SKU in EMEAA?

Look it up, VGChartz was kind enough to even compare the 360 redesign to the PS3 one. It is true that the PS3 redesign had a much stronger first week, but during the next 9 weeks after that the difference only grew 150k. Considering the facter that the PS3 Slim was released at the end of August, and the 360 Slim was released in June (a much drier period of sales), and did roughly as well, thats amazing! VGchartz analaysts agree.

Redesigns makes MUCH bigger sales boosts then price cuts, the 360 redesign boosted sales A LOT more then the 360 price cut in fall 2008. Just look up the data, then come back.

I also don't understand that first sentance you made. If the PS3 and 360 had a price cut to say $249 some point down the road, both systems would prosper relativly equally. 360 has never sold it's Pro-model at that price. A $149 Arcade, and $249 Arcade/Kinect bundle would also boosts sales considerably.

PS3 will never surpass 360, sorry guys, think what you want, but stop being idealistic.



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Michael-5 on 12 September 2010
kowenicki said:
goddog said:
kowenicki said:
BHR-3 said:

yes no problem the last shipment gap was 3.6M

no its not its still hasnt reached a $199 price and there are numerous AAA exclusives left

anyone that wants Reach already bought one sure it will have a HW bump do to LE console same cant be said for GT5, Agent, Last Guardian ect

Move does have some serious hardcore games supporting it so just because you think wii has the lock on casuals only means that a devise that appeals and offers games to the casuals only will suffer more

agreed bout the life span

id say it will take 2nd in 2011 or in the fiscal year of 2011 i also believe that PS3 will be the number one selling console in 2011 its SW lineup is insane and there will be a price cut for that will have the bigger impact than what nintendo or MS do with there prices next year

you should expect that gap to have increased in the next shipment numbers....

And you said all of this towards the end of last year....   

 

In terms of actual sales thru to customers:

For PS3 to overtake 360, PS3 will need to outsell 360 by:         
                 
1,355,891 per month to catch it by Jan '11 312,898 per week, on average every week.
338,973 per month to catch it by Jan '12 78,224 per week, on average every week.
193,699 per month to catch it by Jan '13 44,700 per week, on average every week.
135,589 per month to catch it by Jan '14 31,290 per week, on average every week.
                 
Current rates:               
                 
259,661 per month on average for the last 12 months. 1.74 yrs to catch at this rate May-12
165,361 per month on average for the last 9 months. 2.73 yrs to catch at this rate May-13
6,065 per month on average for the last 6 months. 67.70 yrs to catch at this rate Apr-77
-213,705 per month on average for the last 3 months. **** yrs to catch at this rate ****
                 


numbers.... pffft here is good old idle speculation http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=5338

that thread is pure gold.

That thread is exactly why I beleive the PS3 will never surpass 360 sales. Many people in it beleived PS3 would surpass the 360 by 2008, and in 2008 the difference was over 7 million!

There is no solid reason for the PS3 to surpass 360 ww sales ever! Price cuts will affect both consoles equally, and GT5 is only one game, Halo will match what it does, and for those who argue it's the second Halo title, well then Halo and Kinect will tie or most likely push sales toward the 360.

Also despite Nintendo Wii sales dropping this year, I bet you next year will be a strong one. They just have to cut the price by $50, and they might do that this fall!



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