Hey all, We've all been discussing how well we think the various consoles will do by the end of the year....Now everyone has the chance to finally prove their numbers right!

I've created the 2nd of 2 new games this week: The Worldwide Console Prediction.

Everyone's been flambaiting each person about sales, and now we have the ability to seal the deal with numbers. The challenge only lasts 4 weeks, so we don't escew the numbers TOO much...So lets discuss the numbers!

I have mine as this:

Xbox 360: 18.5m units (major Oct-Dec boost in US/Europe allows it to scantly beat the Wii out W/W, but loses in January)

Wii: 17.5m units (3.25m down now, closes the gap majorly and even wins in Sept-Oct, but loses in Oct-Dec against a ultra-strong 360)

PS3: 7.75m units (decent showings worldwide, but still very low compared to the Wii's sales)

Nintendo DS: 54.5m units (freight train adding nearly 15m more units by the end of the year)

PSP: 28.5m units (somewhat decent sales, gets a few boosts here and there, nearly reaching the 30m mark by EOY).

What do you all think?

Sorry if this is off topic, but people might want to look at This before doing that.

Don't mind him, he is just trying to claim Nintendo is in the lead and failing at it. Notice how he claimed to ask a best buy manager...why whould he do that? How does he know all best buys do that? How does he know ALL stores do that and how many 360's fail and when? There are too many holes in his conspiracy theory to make it worth caring about. In fact it shouldn't even be in the news and be deleted.

I think that you should add 1 more million  to each handheld, becuase nintendo will increase production and the psp will have some killer apps that can be huge. I think that the 360 will not do too well in the end of the year(sounds strange but that what I think) Halo 3 will have too much enemies to do very high numbers, but I doubt that nintendo can increase the production enough for Wii to pass the 360. The PS3 and 360 will have similar holiday numbers. I see the PS3 to low, maybe it could reach the 9 mill number.

I think that;

360: 17.5M

Wii: 15M (crippling shortages)

PS3: 13M (very strong sales from after July (Lair), then Heavenly Sword and more + home) 

 DS: 52.5M

 PSP: 35M (although I these will not exactly right as there will be a redesign before the end of the year)

Heck, replacement units count as sold.  Period.  I bet a million or more PS2 sales were to replace broken hardware.  And I can also guarantee that there are a large number of DS Phats collecting dust after people upgraded to the DS Lite.  (I have one of those and my PSP has been known to need a recharging after sitting around for some time as well...)

I'll second PS360N64PSXBOX's comments and ask that the 'non-news' be deleted.  (Add a stupid fanboy rant directed at davethe1 here. )

360, hmm well counting a steady 250k a month in USA and half that In EU gives us ~400k (counting some Halo effects etc), plus mayby 3 million extra during holidays (yes I am guessing a lot here) might give us = 7 millions. That would be ~17 million totally.

Wii (this one is really hard to predict, how far will the supply issues remain). Now counting on either supply problems or Brawl out I would say that we will se most of the produced sold. Assuming one million a month would give us roughly 10 million extra (assuming another production increas late before holidays). So 16 millions totally by the end of the year.

PS3, well I do think we will se as most 1.5 million (totally) in Japan if not MGS can kick some real butt. USA, hard to say would have liked to see the marsh number before, but ok I make a shot. Assuming problem during sommer holidays will force it down to 150 k/month => 1.5 million. Ad another 1.5 million in Eu, (yes I am gambeling heavy here, I actully don't know). around 8.5 million with a good ending.

DS: 60 millions, if nintendo really produce 2.5 millions a month.

PSP: well japan is doing decently, so mayby 27 millions.

I'm in!  But of course there are a ton of variables that could throw any and all of these numbers off.  Below are my predictions and some of the things I think we'll see and major questions waiting to be answered:

Nintendo Wii - 20M - The sellouts will end... eventually.  (Maybe in May, no later than June.)  A ton of strong Nintendo titles (Super Smash Brothers, Mario Galaxy, and maybe Metroid 3) will be offset by continued weak support by many third parties.  Production will be the biggest problem Nintendo faces this year.  Can they make 20M by the end of 2007?  Will they eventually drop Wii Sports to give the US and Europe a cheaper 'core' system?  And what about the DVD-playing version?  Will be be stuck with stupid 'Friend Codes' forever?  And when will the online games come?

Xbox 360 - 20M - Halo 3 will be huge in the U.S. and 'ehhh' around the world.  GTA4 will do nicely, and the exclusive content will win some converts from Sony.  The move to 65nm will help decrease costs and improve failure rates.  As such, a price cut is to be expected on all the skus and one on Live would help sweeten the deal.  (I still don't know why MS doesn't give new owners a free 6 month Gold account.)  Timing of everything above will determine the full impact of sales this year.  Will IPTV be a boon or a bust?  Will the Elite sku make the 360 look bad in comparison to the PS3? 

Playstation 3 - 12M - Sony will regain its footing mid-year.  Titles will begin to flow including exclusives like Lair and other blockbusters like GTA4.  A price cut may happen, but I'd expect other bundling that pushes Sony's agenda instead (i.e. free movies, games, etc.).  When will Sony bring the 'Emotion'-less PS3 to Japan and the US?  Will Home improve the system's image or become a porn and pedophile hang out?  (No flames on that one.  There are bound to be a few stories on the local TV news during November sweeps just like they did with Pictochat on the DS.)  Will a controller with 'force feedback' come out before the end of the year?  Will the Blu-ray versus HD DVD war have a clear winner?   

Nintendo DS - 60M - Nintendo will continue to make DSes at 2M a month and will sell them all by the end of the year.  Games like Pokemon, Dragon Quest IX, Zelda, and who knows what else Nintendo has up its sleeve will ensure that this system doesn't start slowing down until 2008.  A price cut (highly unlikely) would seal the deal.  If sales show any sign of slowing down, expect more colors and/or some bundles to help pick them back up.  Will Nintendo link the DS with the Wii this year?  When will the next redesign be?  What are the hot colors in 2007?  And when does Nintendo kill off the GBA?

Playstation Portable (PSP) - 28M - The recent price cut in the US will make its way worldwide.  Improved sales in Japan may continue with key titles from Square and others propping them up through the year.  If Sony introduces a new, improved model, these number could be significantly low.  'beats.' could be Sony's Home for the portable.  Will everyone finally give up on UMD movies this year?  Will Sony include PSP versions of movies on Blu-ray discs?  Will original PSP games become available for download -- similar to PS1 titles?  And will there be better online games for the system?

Good Luck to all who enter!

This is a really good thread, before I say anything else..

 ok,

Wii- 18.5 million. It has sold 6 million in 4 months, and with nintendo upping production and this holiday season guaranteed to be huge, I am following a "6 million for every 4 months" idea, but giving it a little extra in sales because I expect the holiday season to be huge for nintendo. Nintendo has too many huge games coming this holiday for it to be unsuccessful. Nights 2, Mario and Sonic at the Olympics (whether you like the dea or not, the game will sell huge), Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Mario Galaxy, as well as a few other big games, all in Q4... it's just too much all at once for the Wii not to sell, it might even start selling out again.

 360- 18 million. It would just barely end up not retaining it's lead. Summer will be a bit slow, but will have a huge holiday season, possibly as big/bigger than nintendo's, however the slow summer will keep it from keeping it's lead.  Halo 3 will be huge, although GeoW and the few other FPS games coming soon will weaken Halo 3's selling power a bit. The high price point of the elite could hurt, but I doubt it. GTA IV will also be huge.

 PS3- 8.75 million. PS3 has very few killer aps this year with the exception of maybe ratchet and clank in september. GTA IV won't help sell systems because it is coming to the cheaper 360. Holiday season will be decent, but nothing spectacular. It will have a few hits throughout the year to keep it alive, but nothing to make it sell through the roof.

DSL: 56 million- It will continue it's path of dominance, as expected. Pokemon D/P in US will give a huge boost, as well as phantom hourglass.

 PSP: 28.5 million- now that the NDS has basically been chosen as "thee handheld" the PSP will see a slowing in sales. This happened with the PS2, at a certain point the PS2 just took off as the chosen winner while the others slowed down a bit. Check the sales charts and you'll see it happen with the PS2, it happens over the course of a month, instantaneously practically.

If Nintendo merely maintained their rate of 1 million/month WW for the rest of the year, they'd have a redonkulous 15+ million units through the end of the year. If they can increase production by an average of 100K a month, they can be at 19.5 million. At launch, people said "shortages will end after the holidays," in January people said "shortages will end in March," and now people are saying "shortages will end before summer," but I think the system is simply snowballing out of control in terms of demand, and will remain in a state of near-sell-out throughout the year, meaning production=sales. And so, until Nintendo gives us some production estimates later this month:

Wii: 19.5 Million

360 is so tentative in its acceleration past XBox sales, that its hard to be really bullish. Even if it were at 10 million by the end of March (it wasn't...), and is selling 500K a month WW (its not...), thats only 13 million through September. But I'm going to go ahead and say that Halo + GTA + price cut can move 6 million systems in the holiday quarter, and put 360 sales at a fairly bullish:

XBox360: 19 million

PS3... Despite looking poised to possibly match 360 in Europe for most of the year, and beating it by 80K units a month in Japan, PS3 got its ass handed to it by 360 in Febuary in NA, which spells trouble for it all year long. Even if it did 500K a month WW, plus a few extra units from the launch wind-down in Europe, its only just above 6 million units through September. And if FF and MGS are delayed to 2008 as expected, the lineup won't have a single safe bet for a 5 million+ seller by year end, even as the other systems have 3-5 each (hell, MGS isn't a safe bet for that mark regardless). My bet is that the system is out of the running by year end with only:

PS3: 8.5 million

DS... With half a million units in NA in a weak month like Febuary, the system finally looks ready to explode in the West. With over 8 million units sold in each of the three major regions in 2007, DS cruises to a total of:

DS: 61 million

PSP supposedly had a great lineup in 2006, but got crushed by DS. Sony will "Gamecube" the system in 2007 with their supposed change of focus to a younger demographic. Like Cube, the system will have a mix of games, but not hit any particular audience very well, and "meh" along to:

PSP: 29 million