If Nintendo merely maintained their rate of 1 million/month WW for the rest of the year, they'd have a redonkulous 15+ million units through the end of the year. If they can increase production by an average of 100K a month, they can be at 19.5 million. At launch, people said "shortages will end after the holidays," in January people said "shortages will end in March," and now people are saying "shortages will end before summer," but I think the system is simply snowballing out of control in terms of demand, and will remain in a state of near-sell-out throughout the year, meaning production=sales. And so, until Nintendo gives us some production estimates later this month:
Wii: 19.5 Million
360 is so tentative in its acceleration past XBox sales, that its hard to be really bullish. Even if it were at 10 million by the end of March (it wasn't...), and is selling 500K a month WW (its not...), thats only 13 million through September. But I'm going to go ahead and say that Halo + GTA + price cut can move 6 million systems in the holiday quarter, and put 360 sales at a fairly bullish:
XBox360: 19 million
PS3... Despite looking poised to possibly match 360 in Europe for most of the year, and beating it by 80K units a month in Japan, PS3 got its ass handed to it by 360 in Febuary in NA, which spells trouble for it all year long. Even if it did 500K a month WW, plus a few extra units from the launch wind-down in Europe, its only just above 6 million units through September. And if FF and MGS are delayed to 2008 as expected, the lineup won't have a single safe bet for a 5 million+ seller by year end, even as the other systems have 3-5 each (hell, MGS isn't a safe bet for that mark regardless). My bet is that the system is out of the running by year end with only:
PS3: 8.5 million
DS... With half a million units in NA in a weak month like Febuary, the system finally looks ready to explode in the West. With over 8 million units sold in each of the three major regions in 2007, DS cruises to a total of:
DS: 61 million
PSP supposedly had a great lineup in 2006, but got crushed by DS. Sony will "Gamecube" the system in 2007 with their supposed change of focus to a younger demographic. Like Cube, the system will have a mix of games, but not hit any particular audience very well, and "meh" along to:
PSP: 29 million
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
