I'm in! But of course there are a ton of variables that could throw any and all of these numbers off. Below are my predictions and some of the things I think we'll see and major questions waiting to be answered:
Nintendo Wii - 20M - The sellouts will end... eventually. (Maybe in May, no later than June.) A ton of strong Nintendo titles (Super Smash Brothers, Mario Galaxy, and maybe Metroid 3) will be offset by continued weak support by many third parties. Production will be the biggest problem Nintendo faces this year. Can they make 20M by the end of 2007? Will they eventually drop Wii Sports to give the US and Europe a cheaper 'core' system? And what about the DVD-playing version? Will be be stuck with stupid 'Friend Codes' forever? And when will the online games come?
Xbox 360 - 20M - Halo 3 will be huge in the U.S. and 'ehhh' around the world. GTA4 will do nicely, and the exclusive content will win some converts from Sony. The move to 65nm will help decrease costs and improve failure rates. As such, a price cut is to be expected on all the skus and one on Live would help sweeten the deal. (I still don't know why MS doesn't give new owners a free 6 month Gold account.) Timing of everything above will determine the full impact of sales this year. Will IPTV be a boon or a bust? Will the Elite sku make the 360 look bad in comparison to the PS3?
Playstation 3 - 12M - Sony will regain its footing mid-year. Titles will begin to flow including exclusives like Lair and other blockbusters like GTA4. A price cut may happen, but I'd expect other bundling that pushes Sony's agenda instead (i.e. free movies, games, etc.). When will Sony bring the 'Emotion'-less PS3 to Japan and the US? Will Home improve the system's image or become a porn and pedophile hang out? (No flames on that one. There are bound to be a few stories on the local TV news during November sweeps just like they did with Pictochat on the DS.) Will a controller with 'force feedback' come out before the end of the year? Will the Blu-ray versus HD DVD war have a clear winner?
Nintendo DS - 60M - Nintendo will continue to make DSes at 2M a month and will sell them all by the end of the year. Games like Pokemon, Dragon Quest IX, Zelda, and who knows what else Nintendo has up its sleeve will ensure that this system doesn't start slowing down until 2008. A price cut (highly unlikely) would seal the deal. If sales show any sign of slowing down, expect more colors and/or some bundles to help pick them back up. Will Nintendo link the DS with the Wii this year? When will the next redesign be? What are the hot colors in 2007? And when does Nintendo kill off the GBA?
Playstation Portable (PSP) - 28M - The recent price cut in the US will make its way worldwide. Improved sales in Japan may continue with key titles from Square and others propping them up through the year. If Sony introduces a new, improved model, these number could be significantly low. 'beats.' could be Sony's Home for the portable. Will everyone finally give up on UMD movies this year? Will Sony include PSP versions of movies on Blu-ray discs? Will original PSP games become available for download -- similar to PS1 titles? And will there be better online games for the system?
Good Luck to all who enter!
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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